Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed that his government has finalized testing of a new nuclear weapon and a nuclear-powered vehicle he claims would give his country a major tactical advantage.
While those weapons would appear to be serious threats due to their range and ability to evade defenses, experts who have studied Russia’s nuclear power told ABC News that there are questions about their capabilities.
“There’s no independent verification of the tests or the actual performance of these weapons. Russia has pursued these technologies for years with little success,” Georgia Cole, a research analyst for the UK-based think tank Chatham House’s International Security Programme told ABC News via e-mail.
While Putin’s pronouncements have gained the attention of the West, experts say there is little evidence so far that the Russian government is attempting any serious escalation beyond Putin’s rhetoric.
The nuclear arms race between Russia and the West came back into the spotlight Monday when Putin announced his government successfully tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile dubbed the Burevestnik.
“It’s designed to fly at a low altitude, perform complicated and unpredictable maneuvers, and potentially evade missile defenses,” Cole said, reiterating that none of that has been confirmed outside of Russian reports.
During a visit to a military hospital on Wednesday, Putin told reporters that his military has also tested an unmanned nuclear-powered submarine, dubbed the Poseidon, that can carry a nuclear payload. Cole said Russian reports indicate that the sub’s payload could be capable, “in theory, of triggering a massive tsunami.”
These weapons have been out in the open for many years, and foreign policy and arms experts have been watching their progress, including some notable failures.
The Burevestnik was first unveiled in 2018 along with a number of other systems Putin touted as super weapons. In 2019, one exploded on a launch pad during a test in Russia’s Arctic, killing at least five scientists and triggering alarms over nuclear contamination, which was detected by European sensors.
Dani Belo, an Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security, who has studied Russian nuclear policy, told ABC News that the latest announcements by Putin are another example of the Russian government’s “saber rattling.”
Belo said Putin has regularly taken military tests to show the world the Russian government is still a strong force to be feared and boost its first strike capabilities.
He noted that the timing of the tests come as President Donald Trump visited with several Asian leaders, including key Putin ally Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“Russia is doing this now to show it is still acting independently in the case these partnerships are compromised,” Belo said.
Belo agreed that it is highly unlikely that Putin intends to use these weapons against the West or Ukraine, as he and Russian officials are likely to follow the logic of “mutually assured destruction.”
“If these weapons are used there will be retaliation, because these weapons do not have the power to completely destroy an enemy country,” he said. “Putin knows that well.”
Cole agreed.
“These moves are best understood as coercive signaling: attempts to gain leverage in negotiations or to push back against Western pressure, rather than a prelude to actual use,” she said.
Trump, however, has responded to the tests and said in a social media that had ordered the Pentagon to resume nuclear testing on an “equal basis” to other countries’ testing programs, which he said would begin “immediately.”
The U.S. has “observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992,” according to the Congressional Research Service, though it has maintained the ability to resume the tests.
Cole said that Trump’s rhetoric is concerning because it “blurs a crucial distinction,” with regard to other countries’ nuclear testing.
“Russia’s alleged tests involve delivery systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads – not nuclear detonations themselves,” she said.
Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov echoed that in a statement Thursday.
“All countries are developing their defense systems. This is not a nuclear test,” he said.
Cole said that Trump needed to provide more clarity on what he is calling for in his order.
“His use of the phrase ‘nuclear tests’ suggests actual nuclear detonations, whereas the call for tests ‘on an equal basis’ to Russia and China would be tests of nuclear weapons delivery systems. This is a major difference, and clarification by the administration is urgently needed,” she said.
-ABC News’ Patrick Reevell, Will Gretsky, Tanya Stukalova and Anna Sergeeva contributed to this report.
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