For Democrats like Leslie Frucht, President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 was downright demoralizing. But she still felt compelled to rally in Paramus, New Jersey, on a recent Saturday for her party’s nominee for governor, Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
“We have to do something, and you have to feel like you’re part of the fight,” Frucht said.
Democrats are hoping this year’s gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia fire up their supporters not just in those states, but also across the country as they look to move on from a brutal 2024 campaign cycle in which they lost the White House and the Senate, and as polls show the party remains broadly unpopular.
“Winning cures a lot of the ills, right? It shows people we’re back on track,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin told NBC News as he knocked on doors earlier this month in Medford, New Jersey.
“But we’ve been winning,” Martin added, pointing to the party’s overperformance in special legislative elections this year, noting that each victory is “another shot in the arm for Democrats to give them a sense that we have a plan, we know what we’re doing, we’re back, and that we’re going to win in ‘26 and then again in ‘28.”
National Democrats have viewed the contests in New Jersey and Virginia as a key test of their message on economic issues — a point of emphasis voters said was sorely lacking from the party last year.
Sherrill and Spanberger have done just that, building out campaigns focused on lowering the cost of living.
But they’ve both faced a delicate balancing act on a host of other hot-button issues that have given the Democratic Party fits in recent election cycles, including transgender rights and immigration.
With just days to go before the election, polls show Spanberger with a consistent lead in Virginia over GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, while surveys show the race in New Jersey between Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli remains close.
But if Spanberger and Sherrill emerge victorious in the blue-leaning states, it’s certain Democratic operatives will look to emulate the approach both candidates took in crafting a message for many of the party’s candidates in the 2026 midterm elections.
“If we come out with wins in both states, that’s going to springboard us into ‘26 and hopefully create a wave impact where we could win back both the House and the Senate,” Martin said.
Laser-focused on costs
In more than two dozen interviews with NBC News, Democratic officials, officeholders, candidates, operatives and voters said that one major lesson from this year’s campaigns is how Spanberger and Sherill have zeroed in on the issue of affordability.
Sherrill herself said that is a major takeaway from her campaign.
“I’m obviously focused on what we can do here in New Jersey as far as costs, as far as affordability, utility costs, health care costs, housing costs,” Sherrill said after the Paramus rally of her message to other Democrats watching her race. “But what I’m hearing from my colleagues in the House of Representatives is their constituents are asking the same thing: How do we drive down costs?”
Sherrill pledged in her closing TV ad to “drive your costs down.” She also stressed her “day one” plan to address rising electricity costs by declaring a state of emergency on utility prices.
In Virginia, Spanberger has remained focused on a message that has emphasized plans to lower costs for health care and prescription drugs, housing and energy, while criticizing Trump for causing chaos in the state’s economy. Much of that angle had been tied to Trump’s efforts to shrink the federal workforce early in his second term — many federal employees reside in Virginia — and she has used the ongoing government shutdown to reinforce the approach.
In an interview with NBC News following a recent campaign event at a peanut farm in Franklin, Virginia, Spanberger said her message on the economy was a product of what she was hearing from voters.
“It’s a question of what people are bringing to me, which is concerns about affordability, the ability to know that your kids can have the opportunity that you might want for them,” she said. “It’s rising energy, health care costs, it’s housing costs.”
Democratic strategists said the overarching emphasis on economic issues has offered a stark contrast to the party’s messaging up and down the ballot last year.
“After 2024, we know we need to be laser focused on kitchen-table [issues]. Spanberger and Sherrill have shown voters respond when we do that,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist and veteran of Virginia campaigns.
In an interview following a recent Spanberger campaign event, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a prospective 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, praised Sherrill and Spanberger for “running their races on issues like affordability and freedom,” and suggested that anything that contributes to a winning message must be a part of future campaigns.
“The party needs to move in the direction of winning races again after losing the presidential race and many races associated with that last cycle,” Shapiro said. “The direction our party needs to go in — it’s winning again and focusing on finding answers and solutions to people’s pressing problems from the states.”
Thorny issues
Spanberger and Sherrill have also been navigating issues that have tripped up other Democrats: transgender rights and immigration.
Spanberger has faced criticism from Republicans for not taking clear positions on transgender people’s participation in youth sports and use of school locker rooms and public bathrooms. The issues were part of a broader education-focused message Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin used on his way to victory four years ago, and were again employed by Trump’s successful 2024 campaign.
Earle-Sears attempted to revive that strategy, running ads that mimicked a spot from Trump’s campaign last year, in which a narrator says “Spanberger is for they/them, not us.”
Spanberger struggled to find a consistent and concise response throughout the campaign, but eventually began explaining her position by saying she felt it was important that such issues be left up to parents, teachers and administrators, not the governor. It’s a reply that has largely avoided the emerging debate within the Democratic Party on the issue.
But Democratic voters and strategists said Spanberger has been able to get away with not taking the topic on more directly because she’s established a clear message on the economy, which polls have shown is a more important issue that trans rights this cycle.
“It doesn’t have the same resonance as it once did because the argument was ultimately about priorities,” Ferguson said of the GOP’s trans-related attacks. “Voters are seeing the GOP obsessed with the topic of ‘they/them’ this time while Democrats are the ones focused on the kitchen table, aka ‘you.’”
Gene Granger, a 43-year-old self-described independent from Portsmouth who is supporting Spanberger, said that the Democrat’s approaches on trans issues “have been fine.”
“Who the hell cares? We should be talking about the economy, jobs, prosperity, how we’re going to make Virginia better, not whether or not someone is a guy or a girl,” Granger said following a recent Spanberger campaign event.
Spanberger has also danced around the issue of past violent text messages from Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones that were unearthed earlier this month. She has condemned the texts but has not pulled her support or called on him to leave the race.
Her stance prompted many Democratic voters interviewed by NBC News to question how she communicated on the issue. Shelvin Vaughn, a 70-year-old retired government worker from Chesapeake, called Spanberger’s responses on issues such as trans rights and Jones a “salad,” but that he voted for her and Jones anyway. Democrats, broadly, he said, “should be more direct” with voters.
Transgender rights have not been as potent an issue in New Jersey. But Sherrill has been navigating the thorny topic of immigration, a significant issue in a state where around 1 in 4 residents are foreign-born.
Republicans have built up an advantage on handling immigration in recent years, and Trump has credited his border policy with propelling him back to the White House.
Ending New Jersey’s “sanctuary state” status is one of Ciattarelli’s central campaign promises, along with making the state more affordable. New Jersey’s current policy, known as the Immigrant Trust Directive, limits state and local law enforcement officers’ cooperation with federal immigration officials.
Sherrill has called for “comprehensive immigration reform” at the federal level but initially declined to say during a debate if she’d keep the Immigrant Trust Directive in place. She subsequently said about the directive, “There are areas of it that I’m very supportive of, and areas that I think need to be addressed.”
Rep. Rob Menendez, D-N.J., said Sherrill has “made clear New Jersey is an inclusive place and we look out after each other. And I think that will guide her administration. But we can’t ignore the fact that the work is at the federal level.”
Asked if Democrats still have work to do when it comes to winning over voters on the immigration issue, Menendez said: “It’s incumbent on all of us to always do the work. On immigration, we need to continue to lead, continue to show that this administration’s approach is not the answer.”
Bridget Bowman reported from Medford and Paramus, New Jersey. Adam Edelman reported from Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Norfolk and Franklin, Virginia.
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