WASHINGTON (AP) — New Jersey voters will decide a in a contest Tuesday that will be viewed through the prism of national politics regardless of who wins.
Also on the ballot are an open seat race for Jersey City mayor that features a former governor and legislative races across the state for the heavily Democratic state General Assembly.
Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are the nominees to succeed . Sherrill is a four-term U.S. representative and former Navy helicopter pilot. Ciattarelli is a former state Assemblyman who came within about 3 percentage points of toppling Murphy in the 2021 gubernatorial race. He has a key endorsement from President Donald Trump, who recently during a telephone town hall.
Sherrill and Ciattarelli have been evenly matched in terms of campaign finances, with both candidates bringing in nearly $20 million for their respective campaigns.
New Jersey is one of two states holding an election for governor in November. Historically, the races in New Jersey and Virginia have been closely watched on a national level as a possible indicator of voter sentiment toward the party holding the White House. In New Jersey, voters elected a governor from the opposite party of the sitting president in every election from 1989 to 2017. The streak was broken in 2021, with Murphy’s reelection and President Joe Biden occupying the White House.
In this election, that trend is at odds with another aspect of the state’s voting history. No party has held the New Jersey governorship for more than three consecutive terms since the 1960s, when a two-term Democratic governor succeeded another two-term Democratic governor.
In Jersey City, seven candidates look to replace outgoing Mayor Steven Fulop, who lost the Democratic nomination for governor in June. Among the candidates to replace him are former Gov. Jim McGreevey, Hudson County Commissioner Bill O’Dea and Jersey City Councilman James Solomon. McGreevey was elected governor in 2001 but following a scandal stemming from an extramarital affair with a male staffer. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff election on Dec. 2.
All 80 seats in the state General Assembly will be up for election on Tuesday. Democrats hold a 52-28 majority in the chamber.
New Jersey has been a reliable state for Democrats in presidential elections, having not gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Despite that history, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris received a relatively modest 52% of the vote in 2024, down from the 57% Biden received four years earlier.
Trump flipped five counties in 2024 that he had lost to Biden in 2020: Atlantic, Cumberland, Gloucester, Morris and Passaic. His win in Passaic is particularly notable because Biden won there in 2020 by a 17-point margin. Ciattarelli carried four of these five counties in 2021 — all but Passaic.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Recounts are rare in New Jersey. The state does not have automatic recounts, but candidates and voters may request and pay for them, with the cost refunded if the outcome changes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
How late are polls open?
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the races for governor, state General Assembly and mayor of Jersey City.
Who gets to vote?
Registered New Jersey voters may participate in the statewide election for governor or for local races in their General Assembly district or municipality.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of Oct. 1, there were about 6.6 million registered voters in New Jersey. Of those, about 38% were Democrats, about 25% were Republicans and about 35% were not affiliated with any party.
In the 2021 general election for governor, turnout was about 40% of registered voters. About 30% of the vote was cast early or by absentee.
As of Monday, nearly 735,000 early and absentee ballots had already been cast. About 56% of these ballots were from Democrats, about 27% from Republicans and about 17% from voters not affiliated with any party. See the AP for the latest update.
How long does vote counting usually take?
In the 2024 presidential election in New Jersey, the first results the AP reported came from Hudson County at 8:01 p.m. ET, one minute after polls closed. Vote tabulation ended for the night at 4:21 a.m. ET in Burlington County with about 95% of votes counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 364 days until the 2026 midterm elections and 1,099 days until the 2028 general election.
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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2025 election at .
The post AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Jersey on Election Day appeared first on Associated Press.
