The Warnings Before the Hurricane

Hurricane Melissa is tearing through the Caribbean, leaving destruction in its wake. It is a stark reminder that those least responsible for climate change are often the most vulnerable to its fallout. Today my colleagues Max Bearak and Lisa Friedman write about the warnings that island countries have been issuing for years about just this sort of disaster.

Island countries warned about this

” class=”css-dc6zx6 ey68jwv2″>Max Bearak and Lisa Friedman

We write about climate change policy and politics.

The nightmare scenario unfolded in the Caribbean this week.

Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica late Tuesday as one of the strongest Category 5 storms on record, at one point packing winds of almost 298 kilometers per hour (185 m.p.h.). A Jamaican government minister called the damage reports “catastrophic.” Nearly three-quarters of the country is without power, and more than a third of the population was directly affected by the storm.

Then Melissa moved on to Cuba, where the damage was also extensive, and to Haiti, where at least 20 people have died. It is expected to “remain a powerful hurricane” as it moves across the Bahamas later Wednesday and near Bermuda on Thursday night. (See the latest updates here.)

We still don’t know the full scope of the catastrophe, or whether this storm was intensified by climate change, but we do know that greenhouse gas emissions have fueled warmer seas and bigger storms.

The island countries understood that a day like this would come.

The world’s poorest countries are suffering the most from climate change, despite being least responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions that cause it. Island states around the world have been pleading for more help for years, warning that they face impending disaster. But rich countries have repeatedly failed to meet their pledges to fund adaptation efforts. Since Donald Trump was elected president, the United States has stopped providing nearly any funding for preparedness and recovery to other countries.

‘The reality is that it could all be wiped out’

Hurricanes have inflicted tens of billions of dollars of damage on Caribbean nations in recent years. Reconstruction efforts have contributed to enormous piles of debt. Jamaica, the Bahamas, Barbados, and Antigua and Barbuda, all recently hit by major hurricanes, have debts that are nearly equal to their entire economies.

Countries go further in debt after disasters to provide for people’s basic needs and to cover economic losses. But the need to repay those debts also makes it harder to build the protections that could limit damage from future disasters. The International Monetary Fund has said the region needs to invest about $100 billion in this kind of climate resilience.

“Our countries don’t have the luxury to become more resilient to climate change,” said Michai Robertson, a senior adviser to the Alliance of Small Island States.

Robertson is from Antigua and Barbuda, which was decimated by Hurricane Irma in 2017. That storm caused more than $77 billion in damage across the Caribbean and South Florida.

“If people are facing the choice between getting shutters for your home versus getting food on the table, the obvious, humane choice is the latter,” he said. “But the reality is that it all could be wiped out.”

Pledging money, falling short

Next week, negotiators from around the world will go to Brazil for the United Nations’ annual climate summit. These summits have been increasingly dominated by the question of money. The U.N. has issued studies showing that developing countries need more than $1 trillion per year to move their economies away from the fossil fuels that drive climate change, and to adapt to changes that are already happening.

In 2021, wealthy countries agreed to double the amount they give for adaptation, which would amount to at least $40 billion annually by 2025. A report released on Wednesday by the U.N. shows that adaptation aid is actually declining.

The Biden administration had sought to deliver roughly $3.1 billion in climate adaptation aid for 2023. President Trump stopped the U.S. from contributing funding to help vulnerable countries prepare for the threats from global warming. The administration has dismantled nearly all of the foreign aid programs and offices that work with poor countries.

On Tuesday morning, as the hurricane bore down, Robertson said his brother and grandparents were in Jamaica. Everyone in his family was on edge and nervously checking their phones, he said.

“In moments like this it really hits home that there’s this void and lack of leadership,” he said. “Not only are wealthy countries retreating from fighting climate change, they’re not listening to us.”

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