In the Deep South, in crimson Mississippi, Democrats are sensing a rare opportunity to make inroads on Tuesday, an Election Day test of sorts for a national party that may soon have no choice but to find ways to win Southerners back.
The state will hold seven special elections on Nov. 4 for seats in the Mississippi legislature, prompted by redistricting ordered by the courts to give Black voters more representation. If Democrats flip two seats in the Senate, they would break the Republican supermajority in Jackson, the state capital.
That may not make a material difference in governing, since Republicans control the governor’s office and both chambers of the legislature. But it would bolster a broader attempt by Democrats to rebuild in the South as the Supreme Court considers ending Voting Rights Act protections for majority Black and Latino districts. Those districts, in state legislatures and in Congress, are practically the only ones held by Democrats, and Democrats are pleading for a role in redrawing them.
“It’s an all-hands-on-deck moment for Democrats to really think about what our future looks like,” said Heather Williams, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which is prioritizing five Mississippi races. “It is state legislators who get to decide what our congressional districts look like, what most of our legislative districts look like, what our voting laws look like.”
Mike Hurst, chairman of the Mississippi Republican Party, described some of the races as a “dogfight,” but he predicted that his party’s organizational muscle and policies would translate into victory.
“Democrats can go out there, brag about how much they’re going to spend and beat their chests if they want to, but Republicans are going to just beat them at the polling booth,” said Mr. Hurst, who also serves as the general counsel of the Republican National Committee. “I think they’re wasting their money.”
It wasn’t that long ago — 2010, to be exact — that Democrats controlled the Mississippi legislature. Then Mississippi, like many states in the South, turned red, and Republicans cemented their gains in the legislature with redistricting.
In 2022, Mississippi’s N.A.A.C.P. chapter sued the state, saying that its leaders had illegally diluted the strength of Black residents, who make up almost 40 percent of the population, the highest percentage in the country. In April, a three-member panel of federal judges, all appointed by former President George W. Bush, unanimously agreed. They ordered the legislature to redraw the maps and then hold special elections.
Looming in the background is whether the Supreme Court will roll back, as seems likely, a key provision of the Voting Rights Act that protects districts drawn to make racial and ethnic minorities a voting majority. If so, Mississippi’s Republican-controlled legislature may redraw the maps again, undermining any Democratic gains made on Tuesday, said Amir Badat, southern states director for Fair Fight Action, a voting rights group supporting the Democratic candidates.
There are six seats being contested for the State Senate, where Republicans have a 36-14 advantage, and one in the House, where the Republican margin is 79-39, not including vacancies. Race factors into most of the contests, since they were mandated to give Black Mississippians more representation.
Senate District 45, which is now more than 50 percent Black, is anchored by Hattiesburg, where Johnny DuPree, the Democratic candidate, was once the first Black mayor.
After 16 years in office, making him Hattiesburg’s longest-serving mayor, Mr. DuPree, 71, said he had not been planning on running again. He lost races for governor in 2011, secretary of state in 2019 and Congress in 2022.
But Mr. DuPree, who holds a doctorate in urban studies, said the issues he highlighted during his campaign for governor — Medicaid expansion, economic development and public education — were even more urgent now.
“People have to step up to the plate,” he said.
Breaking the Republicans’ supermajority, he said, would ensure that Republicans wouldn’t “ignore the rest of the population.”
“The Big Beautiful Bill and the shutdown are going to catch up with you,” he said at a forum for legislative and judicial candidates at the University of Southern Mississippi. “You need somebody to go there on Day 1 and know what to do.”
Mr. DuPree’s opponent, Anna Rush, 36, is a white divorce and family lawyer who serves as a Hattiesburg city prosecutor. She was appointed by Mayor Toby Barker, a fellow millennial and a former Republican legislator who, as an independent, unseated Mr. DuPree in 2017, four years after Mr. DuPree eked out a contested fourth term.
While Ms. Rush worked on Capitol Hill for former Representative Steven Palazzo and interned for former Senator Thad Cochran, both Republicans, party references at her events or on her website are scant.
With a slogan of “Rush for the Future,” she talks instead about transforming Hattiesburg, her hometown, highlighting health care, economic growth and public education. At a fund-raiser at a popular West Hattiesburg restaurant, she attracted a young crop of lawyers, professionals and students, both Black and white, some of whom have never voted Republican.
“I think people want a new voice or fresh face, representing a new change in Mississippi, the younger generation,” Ms. Rush said.
The other contest drawing national attention, the Senate District 2, is being waged mostly in fast-growing DeSoto County, south of Memphis. Again, Black voters make up more than 50 percent of the district’s electorate.
Charlie Hoots, the Republican candidate, is a retired news photographer for a Memphis television station and has served as an alderman in the city of Southaven since 2018.
Mr. Hoots, 67, who is white, did not respond to calls or emails. At a fund-raiser in late September, Mr. Hoots told supporters, “This is not something we can take for granted.”
Teresa Reeves, 54, who is white, was polishing off grits and toast at the Country Skillet, a popular breakfast spot in Southaven, when she said she supported the Republican, who is a Country Skillet regular and is active in her church.
“He represents our Christian Southern values,” she said.
Democrats are bullish about their candidate, Theresa Gillespie Isom, a retired nurse who is Black. In Horn Lake, a city in the district, the new Black mayor, Jimmy Stokes II, was part of a Democratic wave in June’s municipal elections that flipped what had been a solidly Republican and white board of aldermen.
“We really need people to fight for this growing county,” Mr. Stokes said at his City Hall office, with Ms. Isom at his side.
During a late afternoon of canvassing last week, Ms. Isom, 72, handed out leaflets and pledged to focus on health care and public education. When a red sedan stopped, she made a beeline to the female driver.
“You’re a Republican or a Democrat?” the Black woman asked.
“Democrat!” Ms. Isom exclaimed.
“OK, OK, good,” the woman said.
A few minutes later, Ms. Isom spotted a young white man walking to his front door. She asked if she could tell him about her campaign.
“I’ve got to take care of my animals,” he mumbled, without looking at her.
“Can I give you some information —” Ms. Isom began, before the man shut the door.
“Trump voter,” she guessed.
David W. Chen is a Times reporter focused on state legislatures, state level policymaking and the political forces behind them.
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