The more than 220,000 ballots already submitted in the New York City mayor’s race are only a sliver of those that will ultimately be cast, and analyzing the patterns for a clue to the outcome on Nov. 4 is fraught with peril.
Even so, data on who is voting early can often serve as a Rorschach test for election watchers. After the first weekend of early voting was completed on Sunday, allies of both Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee and front-runner, and Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic governor running as an independent, framed the data as good news.
Voting in person on Election Day is still the most popular way for New Yorkers to cast their ballots, and factors that can affect the demographics of those voting in a particular election can include the weather — like the heat wave in June that might have kept some older primary voters from venturing out.
And comparisons to the primary are difficult for several reasons. In June, voters who were not registered with a party could not vote, and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee for mayor, ran unopposed. This time, politically unaffiliated voters will participate, and many more Republicans will cast ballots (nearly as many Republicans have already voted early as participated in the June primary altogether).
But one pattern has been clear so far: While the Democratic primary was notable for the unusually large share of younger voters who participated, the age breakdown of the voters who have so far have cast early ballots in the general election has looked much more typical.
In the Democratic primary, the median voter who cast a ballot in the first three days of early voting was 48 years old. But in the first three days of the general election’s early voting period, it was 56 — in line with the 2024 general election figure of 57.
Mr. Cuomo has been trailing Mr. Mamdani by double digits in the polls for weeks now. But on Monday, Mr. Cuomo said he felt boosted by the early voting numbers so far.
“New Yorkers, at the end of the day, want a mayor who can do the job,” he said. “These turnout numbers — I know it’s early, the first couple of days — but these are extraordinary turnout numbers.”
Asked his elevator pitch to older voters, Mr. Cuomo said it was the same pitch he was making to all voters: one that centered largely on his experience and Mr. Mamdani’s inexperience.
For his part, Mr. Mamdani told reporters he was not concerned.
“I think it’s great to see this turnout,” he said. “I think we should always celebrate when more New Yorkers are going to the polls.”
He added, “I continue to be confident in our campaign, as well as in our outreach, to voters above the age of 55. And also, I will not allow myself to become complacent.”
Camille Baker and Michael Gold contributed reporting
Alex Lemonides is a data journalist at The Times, working on a team that analyzes election results and conducts political polls.
Dana Rubinstein covers New York City politics and government for The Times.
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