The East Coast of the United States has been spared a direct hit from a hurricane so far this year, and forecasters’ models suggest that it is likely to avoid Melissa, too.
After the storm moves over Jamaica on Tuesday and Cuba after that, most forecast models show it moving toward the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos archipelago, where a hurricane watch was in effect on Monday. That path would keep it well east of the coast of Florida.
Typically, by this time in an Atlantic season, at least three hurricanes or tropical storms would have made landfall in the United States. But with 13 named storms so far this year — five of them hurricanes — the only one to make U.S. landfall was Tropical Storm Chantal, which came ashore in South Carolina in early July. (Another, Tropical Storm Barry, made landfall in southeastern Mexico in late June.)
As Melissa moves through the Atlantic, it eventually could affect the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend.
And while heavy rain is forecast for the Eastern United States on Thursday and Friday, it is not from Melissa. A separate, more typical storm system is developing off the East Coast, which will draw in tropical moisture. This could lead to locally heavy rain and possibly isolated flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times who forecasts and covers extreme weather.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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