BRUSSELS — The EU is considering allowing its heavy industry to pollute for longer under a new draft proposal aimed at breaking the deadlock on the bloc’s 2040 goal for cutting planet-warming emissions.
Under pressure to strike a deal before the COP30 climate summit starting Nov. 10 in Brazil, Denmark, which is steering the talks among EU countries, is opening the door to slowing the EU’s climate efforts. The intention is to win support from the majority of countries to back the target of an 90 percent emissions cut by 2040 compared to 1990 levels.
The text, obtained by POLITICO, proposes that the EU assess progress toward achieving the new 2040 climate goal every two years, taking into account “scientific evidence, technological advances and evolving challenges to and opportunities for the EU’s global competitiveness.” The European Commission could then suggest legislative changes, the document adds, meaning Brussels could adjust — and potentially weaken — its target in future.
The suggestion comes after EU leaders discussed competitiveness and climate policy at a summit last week and pitched ideas to unlock the stalemate in the negotiations. A number of leaders called on the EU to set pragmatic climate goals and introduce more flexibilities to reach them, something that is now reflected in the new compromise document.
But allowing the EU to decelerate its climate efforts could see it miss the 2040 goal, or force it to rely on other instruments to reach it, such as outsourcing more emissions cuts to poorer countries.
Offering flexibilities
The Danish presidency proposes to introduce measures to avoid penalizing one sector (such as heavily polluting industries) if other sectors (e.g. forestry, which contributes to sequestering carbon in forests) can’t meet their emissions reduction or absorption targets.
The proposal states that “possible shortfalls in one sector would not be at the expense of other economic sectors, notably industrial sectors under the EU [Emissions Trading System].”
The document does not propose changing the headline 90 percent emissions cut target as proposed by the Commission in July. But it does raise the possibility of changing how much international carbon offsets — an instrument that allows the EU to outsource emissions cuts abroad — should contribute to achieving the target.
The Commission proposed capping their use at 3 percent starting in 2036, but member countries including France and Poland have suggested 5 percent or 10 percent. It’s expected to be a key topic in negotiations this week and next, according to one EU diplomat.
The document also states that the bloc’s climate goals should not be pursued at the expense of the EU’s military priorities.
When designing new climate legislation, the Commission should take into account “the need to ensure the Union’s and its Member States’ capacity to rapidly increase and strengthen their defensive capacity by addressing possible burdens while maintaining incentives for industrial decarbonisation,” the document reads.
The compromise text will now be discussed by EU country envoys on Wednesday and Friday with the aim of allowing environment ministers to strike a deal Nov. 4.
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