AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Cincinnati on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Cincinnati’s mayor seeks a second term in a municipal election next week against a challenger with notable family ties.

Mayor Aftab Pureval, a Democrat, is running against Republican Cory Bowman in this Democratic stronghold on Nov. 4. Bowman is a pastor, cafe owner and the .

Pureval finished far ahead of Bowman in , with about 83% of the vote. Bowman placed a distant second with about 13% of the vote, enough to secure a spot on the ballot. The Cincinnati mayor’s office is a nonpartisan position, so all candidates competed on the same ballot in the primary, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the November general election.

The election in Ohio’s third-most-populous city takes place against the backdrop of an in big American cities by the Trump administration in the name of fighting crime and illegal immigration, over the objections of the cities’ Democratic leaders. Crime was a major topic in the mayoral campaign in August downtown that was shared widely on social media.

Pureval with about 66% of the vote over fellow Democrat David Mann, a former mayor and U.S. Representative.

Democrats have long held a lopsided advantage in Cincinnati elections. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried the city in the 2024 presidential election with about 75% of the vote, compared to about 22% for Republican Donald Trump.

Trump was the top vote-getter in only one of the city’s 26 wards. He carried four of the city’s 190 precincts, all of them located along the Ohio River on opposite ends of the city. Bowman held two of these precincts in the May primary – in Sayler Park and California – the only places where he outperformed Pureval.

Turnout tends to be relatively low in off-year Ohio elections. A recent exception was in 2023, when a of motivated voters on both sides of the abortion debate to head to the polls.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Ohio are automatic if the margin is less than 0.25% of the total vote in statewide races or 0.5% in district races. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Nov. 4:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare a winner in the Cincinnati mayoral race. Other local contests in Cincinnati and across the state will also be held Nov. 4, but only the Cincinnati mayoral race will be part of the AP’s vote tabulation.

Who gets to vote?

Voters registered in the city of Cincinnati may participate in the mayoral general election.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

There were more than 221,000 registered voters in Cincinnati as of the May 6 primary. Turnout in the primary was about 10% of registered voters. About 17% of the vote was cast before primary day.

In the 2021 mayoral general election, turnout was about 24% of registered voters. One quarter of the vote was cast before Election Day.

As of Thursday, about 4,900 ballots had been cast in Hamilton County before Election Day.

How long does vote counting usually take?

In the May 6 primary, the AP first reported results in the mayoral race at 7:53 p.m. ET, or 23 minutes after polls closed. The last update of the night was at 10:24 p.m. ET with nearly 99% of the total vote counted.

In the 2024 presidential election, the first results the AP reported in Hamilton County were available at 7:57 p.m. ET. Tabulation stopped for the night at 11:54 p.m. ET with about 96% of total votes counted.