Jamaica could face one of the strongest landfall storms in its recorded history as Hurricane Melissa moves through the Caribbean, and forecasters predict it will hit the island as an “upper-end” Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday.
The National Hurricane Center’s records, which date back to 1850, show that Jamaica has only ever been hit by one Category 4 storm, and that happened 37 years ago.
That storm was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which was also known on the island as “Wild Gilbert.”
It made landfall near Kingston, with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour — only just qualifying as a Category 4 storm, which has winds of 130 to 156 m.p.h.
Gilbert tore across the entire island, displacing an estimated 500,000 people — around one-fifth of the population — and killing 45.
The island’s power and water systems were shut down, and even as the storm emerged from the west coast later that afternoon, its winds remained dangerously strong at 125 m.p.h.
In a later review, the Hurricane Center said the destruction in Jamaica offered “grim evidence” of the life-threatening effects and deep economic disruption a storm of that power could unleash.
As of Sunday morning, Philippe Papin, a senior hurricane specialist at the Hurricane Center, said that Hurricane Melissa was expected to have wind strengths at the highest end of a Category 4 storm as it nears Jamaica.
“In our latest forecast, the system looks to be a 155 miles per hour Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday morning,” he said. “And it’s looking increasingly likely that Jamaica will have a direct impact from Hurricane Melissa.”
Since the turn of the century, three Category 4 hurricanes have tracked close enough to batter the island, including hurricane Beryl in 2024, which skimmed the south coast, unleashing damaging winds, storm surge and flooding that caused more than $200 million of damage.
In 2007, Hurricane Dean followed a similar path near Jamaica, leaving behind around $300 million in destruction. Similarly, Hurricane Ivan in 2004, passed just south of the island, resulting in 17 fatalities and nearly $600 million in damage.
Though it was a Category 5 as it approached Jamaica, Hurricane Allen became a Category 4 as it neared the island in 1980. Despite not making landfall, the storm caused $100 million in damage and killed eight people.
The island has also withstood other damaging storms even if they were not classified as strong as a Category 4.
In August 1951, Hurricane Charlie slammed into Jamaica and was considered at the time to be the nation’s “worst hurricane disaster of the century,” according to a federal report.
Charlie packed winds greater than 110 m.p.h. and brought 17 inches of rain, causing an estimated $50 million (more than $620 million today) in damage to property and crops. The storm killed 152 people, injured 2,000 others and left approximately 25,000 residents homeless.
Charlie remained the last hurricane to make landfall in Jamaica until Gilbert arrived 37 years later.
A Category 3 hurricane in 1912 hit the island with peak sustained winds of 115 m.p.h. However, in a re-analysis by the Hurricane Center, it was noted that rainfall leading to flash flooding proved to be the most destructive, especially in the northwest side of the island.
Several towns were reported to have been wiped out by the winds and tidal waves and at least 100 lives were lost in that storm.
A hurricane in 1903 made landfall on Aug. 11 and, according to a monthly weather review at the time, caused a “heavy loss of life and property.” At least 65 people were killed.
It’s not always the strongest storms that deliver the harshest blows. Sometimes it is size that matters — as was the case with Hurricane Sandy.
In October 2012, Sandy hit Jamaica as a Category 1 storm. However, its vast size produced a maximum storm rainfall of more than 28 inches. It caused around $100 million in damage and killed three people.
Tropical Storm Gustav in 2008 illustrates that lower wind speeds can still be deadly.
Though never reaching hurricane strength, Gustav produced torrential rainfall, widespread flooding and mudslides, which caused approximately $210 million in damage and killed 15 people.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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