President Trump is embarking on a nearly weeklong tour of Asia, his first trip to the region during his second term, with stops in Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, capped by a meeting with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader.
He may tout a new trade deal, push for credit for negotiating peace between Thailand and Cambodia, and show that Washington still has sway in Southeast Asia, a region where Beijing has growing clout.
Across Asia, governments are looking to stabilize ties with the United States after months of tariff disputes, yet mindful of how Mr. Trump’s diplomacy can shift overnight. Many nations will be trying to find a way to balance their relationship with Washington against an increasingly assertive China.
“I hear real expressions of concern and unease about what the U.S. approach to the region will be over the long run, and concerns primarily for how China will respond,” said Daniel Kritenbrink, a partner at the Asia Group and a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
“They will start calculating their national interest and start balancing against China in ways that don’t involve the United States,” Mr. Kritenbrink said.
Here’s what the region expects from the visit:
Southeast Asia: A Wary Audience
Mr. Trump’s first trip to Southeast Asia since 2017 will take him to the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur, on Sunday. He hopes to sign a trade agreement with Malaysia and witness a peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia that he has personally taken credit for brokering.
He will also meet with at least 10 of the leaders of regional nations who are gathered for a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
For the United States, Southeast Asia is valuable not only for the size of its market, but also for its strategic importance as a bulwark against China. The region is also an important supply chain hub for many American companies that have moved out of China.
For Southeast Asia, the United States represents an important market. The United States is the top export destination for Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia. Many are looking to the possible Malaysia trade deal for clues on what their agreements will look like.
But Mr. Trump will find a region that is now increasingly skeptical of the United States. Countries are still reeling from his policy on tariffs, which many governments feel were indiscriminate. Most countries in Southeast Asia were hit with tariffs of about 19 to 20 percent, a blow to many of their economies.
Japan: A New Leader’s First Big Test
From Malaysia, Mr. Trump will fly to Japan, where he will meet with the country’s new leader, Sanae Takaichi, the first woman to serve as prime minister.
Japan is focused on finalizing the details of a trade agreement with the United States. In July, Japan received a lower-than-threatened 15 percent across-the-board tariff on its exports in exchange for a commitment to inject $550 billion into the U.S. economy.
While the two countries have recently resolved several ambiguities in the trade agreement, a significant point of contention remains: the details of how Japan will deploy that $550 billion in investment, loans and loan guarantees.
Ms. Takaichi, who was elected prime minister this past week, had suggested while campaigning for the post that she could take a tougher stance with Washington. But she has recently struck a more conciliatory note, pledging to work to preserve the trade accord.
Ms. Takaichi announced on Friday that Japan will spend about 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic output on defense by next spring, two years ahead of schedule. Japan is anticipating demands from the Trump administration that it vastly increase military spending.
And she is also likely to raise concerns about China’s growing military and economic power in Asia. She is expected to seek a renewed pledge from Mr. Trump that the United States will continue to uphold the military and economic alliance with Japan that has historically served as a check to China’s clout in the region.
South Korea: Balancing Security and Trade
The summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation — APEC — in Gyeongju is the biggest international gathering that President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea will have hosted since he took office in June.
Much of the attention in South Korea is focused on whether Mr. Lee can settle a tariff dispute with Mr. Trump during the visit.
In July, South Korea reached a broad-brush deal to fend off high tariffs on Korean exports, promising a $350 billion investment package for the United States. But negotiations to hash out details have since dragged out, leaving South Korea’s key auto industry subject to a 25 percent tariff and putting it at a disadvantage against its Japanese and European rivals.
Seoul and Washington have been staunch allies since the Korean War in the early 1950s. They have expanded their trilateral partnership with Japan in recent years in a joint effort to check Chinese influence in the region. South Korea is also home to the largest U.S. military base overseas, an asset the Pentagon wanted to use to deter not only North Korea but also China.
But South Korea’s export-driven economy relies heavily on trade with China. Unlike his conservative predecessor, Mr. Lee does not want to antagonize China. The meeting in Gyeongju will be a test of Mr. Lee’s diplomatic juggling.
China: A Superpower Showdown, or Road to Détente?
On Thursday, Mr. Trump will hold his first face-to-face meeting with Mr. Xi of his second term in office, in talks that hold the greatest stakes for the global economy.
He will most likely be meeting his strongest rival yet, a leader who has shown his willingness to defy Mr. Trump and to back his tough rhetoric with a powerful bargaining chip: critical minerals.
Chinese and American trade negotiators are meeting this weekend to try to hash out details of what the leaders can agree on when they meet in Gyeongju before Mr. Trump returns to the United States. Beijing is pressing Washington to reduce its tariffs on Chinese products and drop its restrictions on technology exports to China. Mr. Trump wants China to buy more U.S. soybeans and Boeing planes.
The Chinese leader will enter the talks with significant leverage, being able to point to China’s near-monopoly over rare earth minerals that are essential for global manufacturing.
The United States, for its part, is ramping up pressure with a new investigation into China’s failure to meet its 2020 trade deal commitments. Mr. Trump has also threatened to impose further 100 percent tariffs and restrictions on exports of U.S. software.
Mr. Xi’s hand is strengthened by China’s industrial might, its control over vital supply chains, and a willingness to flex its economic muscles — even at the risk of global backlash.
Sui-Lee Wee is the Southeast Asia bureau chief for The Times, overseeing coverage of 11 countries in the region.
Choe Sang-Hun is the lead reporter for The Times in Seoul, covering South and North Korea.
Javier C. Hernández is the Tokyo bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of Japan and the region. He has reported from Asia for much of the past decade, previously serving as China correspondent in Beijing.
David Pierson covers Chinese foreign policy and China’s economic and cultural engagement with the world. He has been a journalist for more than two decades.
The post Where Trump Is Headed in Asia, and What Each Country Wants From Him appeared first on New York Times.
