Like a plane stuck circling an airport, waiting for a runway to land on, Melissa has been stuck in a holding pattern in the Caribbean with no exit for days — because there’s no other weather pattern to steer it anywhere else.
As the storm continues meandering at about one mile per hour, it is tricky to forecast and pinpoint when and where dangerous conditions may occur.
Since Melissa formed on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center has repeatedly cited “significant uncertainty” about how strong the storm may become and where it will go. Some of that uncertainty lingered going into this weekend, though the near-term forecast had become much clearer:
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Forecasters expect the storm to pose a significant threat of catastrophic flash flooding and damaging winds to Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba for several days. Heavy rain is expected to last through the weekend as the storm remains close to the islands.
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As it sits in the Caribbean, it was expected to intensify into a hurricane on Saturday and then a major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — soon after.
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After that, though, much about Melissa’s path and eventual intensity at the start of next week remains unknown.
For several days this week, Melissa has remained relatively weak, with its center frequently becoming ill-defined as the storm struggled to consolidate. The Hurricane Center’s forecasters noted that the storm’s center was beginning to consolidate on Friday afternoon, a development that helps them issue forecasts with more confidence. There is still a large spread in the storm’s possible paths into next week, but the more structure the storm develops, the more obvious a likely path becomes, both to meteorologists and to the computer models they rely on to help with their forecasts.
Here are the most likely scenarios for the next few days, and a few less likely ones:
Saturday
The most likely scenario is that Melissa begins a slow westward shift across the Caribbean as it potentially starts to rapidly intensify. The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength early in the day.
There is a slight chance that the westward shift will not materialize, but tropical-storm-force winds could begin lashing Haiti regardless. Forecasters predict that up to 20 inches of heavy rainfall could pummel the country, leading to “catastrophic flash flooding and landslides,” according to forecasters with the Hurricane Center. Parts of Jamaica and the Dominican Republic could receive similar amounts this weekend.
Sunday
Forecasters warned that as flooding continued in Haiti, extensive damage to roads and buildings could be expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period. Strong winds are likely to continue across the southern side of the country, primarily over the Tiburon Peninsula on the country’s southwest side.
Conditions are expected to worsen in Jamaica on Sunday morning as winds increase and heavy rain continues. Melissa is expected to continue slowly moving west south of Jamaica while intensifying, potentially reaching Category 3 or 4 strength at this point.
Monday
The storm is expected to continue moving west, remaining south of Jamaica. The extent of strong winds affecting the island will depend on the storm’s distance offshore. Heavy rains are expected to continue in both Jamaica and Haiti. After three days of slow westward movement, the storm is projected to find a more defined exit from its sluggish pattern in the Caribbean.
Tuesday
There is a possibility that the storm could make landfall in Jamaica, bringing the most intense winds directly onto the island. It is also plausible that it will pass west of the island or shift east, depending on when it makes a potential turn toward the northeast. Predicting this turn is the most challenging aspect of the forecast, because it depends on large-scale atmospheric patterns. The timing relies heavily on whether a weakness develops over the East Coast of the United States early next week, which could pull Melissa in that direction. As Melissa interacts with the rugged terrain of Jamaica and Cuba, some weakening could occur.
The Hurricane Center typically limits its official forecast to five days because small but crucial factors like unformed systems over the eastern United States can drastically alter a storm’s long-term trajectory.
Wednesday
The working forecast on Friday suggested that by midweek, Melissa was likely to be near or over southeastern Cuba, though forecasters noted that the timing remained “more uncertain than usual.” This potential path increases the risk of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge across eastern Cuba — and bringing more wind and rain from Haiti and even into the Dominican Republic.
Thursday and beyond
As the storm continues to move northeast, it is likely to move over the Bahamas toward the end of the week. As of Friday, the most likely path would take the storm into the open Atlantic Ocean.
What about Florida?
The timing of when the storm decides to turn to the northeast will have a big impact on the forecast.
The earlier it does so, the more likely the storm is to leave the United States unscathed. The later it makes the turn, the more likely effects on the United States become — but that is not likely at this moment.
With inherent uncertainty in the exact track, forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center wrote Friday that Melissa was not expected to significantly affect the East Coast of the United States “outside of some waves and rip currents.” But they warned that because so much of the track depended on an unformed system over the eastern United States, Melissa was still worth monitoring for any potential changes to the forecast. More clarity is expected early next week.
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times who forecasts and covers extreme weather.
The post What to Expect From Tropical Storm Melissa This Weekend and Beyond appeared first on New York Times.
