Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he will not bow to new U.S. sanctions but conceded “some losses are expected.” That is an understatement. The sanctions—the first in President Donald Trump’s second term—will hit Russia’s war budget by imposing a total embargo against Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
It’s a tough blow. But enforcement will be key. Russia will try to sell oil under the table, using its shadow fleet of tankers and various cutouts: middlemen, front and unsanctioned companies, fake documents, and more. The U.S. will have to put its back into rooting out underground Russia’s oil networks.
That means slapping sanctions on the entire Russian shadow fleet of tankers and targeting ports, fueling sources, and other services they rely on. The White House could also slap sanctions against third countries that buy Russian oil from any source. They could waive these sanctions if the purchasing countries reduce volumes every six months; a sensible compromise that will help ensure compliance, and an approach used against Iran.
The measures would put even more downward pressure on Russian oil by forcing them to sell at a further discount. Better yet, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that these sanctions may not be the last.
This is a big deal because Trump, at last, has crossed the line from talk to action. He imposed these sanctions after Putin stonewalled on a cease-fire in Ukraine during their recent call. Although the meeting between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky last Friday reportedly descended into a “shouting match,” it was neither quite the February blow up nor a cave to Putin. It’s a sign that Trump is not going to be endlessly played by Putin.
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There is more. The new sanctions reportedly followed U.S. permission for Ukraine to use the British-made Storm Shadow missile to strike targets deep inside Russia. That is not as big a step as selling the U.S. made Tomahawk cruise missiles that were being mulled. But it is a step in that direction and another sign that the U.S. can ramp up both military and economic pressure.
The U.S. sanctions follow a British decision on Oct. 15 to do the same. The E.U. also on Thursday rolled out its 19th package of sanctions against Russia that included significant new measures, including against the Russian energy sector.
Taken together, all of this is a warning shot to Putin to back down from his maximalist aims in Ukraine and get serious about ending the war. Trump has also wisely canceled the Budapest summit with Putin, citing Russian intransigence.
Speaking publicly, Trump sounded almost regretful about the U.S. sanctions. He still wants to broker a compromise between Moscow and Kyiv that he may regard as sharing blame for the war’s outbreak and continuation. And he hinted a deal could scrap the sanctions.
Still, it’s a positive and significant step. Putin keeps pushing for Trump to give him a victory over Ukraine that Putin’s armies have not been able to win on the battlefield. Given some of Trump’s most problematic remarks about Ukraine, this hope may not have been completely fatuous. But Putin is overreaching. And now Trump has said no.
If Putin understands that the U.S. has many more tools at its disposal, he just might step back enough for Ukraine—the 80% of it that’s still outside of Russia’s control—to survive as a free and independent country.
Trump’s hand is strong. He didn’t play all his cards but is finally in the game.
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