Expectations among analysts and European diplomats are low ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest—assuming the meeting even happens.
Trump announced the Budapest summit on Oct. 16, following a call with Putin that Trump described as “very productive.” Putin reportedly demanded that, in return for peace, Ukraine surrender its control over Donetsk, a territory that Russia has been trying and failing to conquer since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The next day, Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had been hoping to secure deliveries of U.S. Tomahawk missiles that would likely be used in Ukraine’s ongoing campaign against Russia’s energy sector.
Instead, Trump reportedly pressured Ukraine to give up land to Russia as part of a settlement, although he later endorsed freezing the conflict along its current front lines. Trump had previously said that he believed Ukraine could win back all of its territory.
In a seeming repeat of the two leaders’ tense meeting at the White House in February, Trump yelled and swore, according to the Financial Times. Two European diplomats, who spoke to Foreign Policy on the condition of anonymity, said that they had been briefed that the meeting was not as tense as described, however.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have been tasked with preparing the Budapest summit. However, a meeting between the two to arrange the details has already been postponed. On Oct. 21, the White House reportedly said that there would not be a Trump-Putin meeting in the “immediate future.”
John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Kyiv, expressed skepticism that the Russians would be willing to offer the sorts of concessions that would make a meeting worthwhile. “I’m not sure if Budapest is going to happen,” he said.
So far, Russia has not significantly changed its positions since Trump and Putin’s failed summit in Alaska. That meeting did not result in a cease-fire and reportedly left Trump angry after Putin launched into a lecture on Russia’s historical role in Ukraine, one of the Russian president’s favorite justifications for his war against Ukraine.
Also on Oct. 21, Lavrov rejected a cease-fire that would freeze the battlefield along its current front lines, as supported by Trump.
Should the Budapest meeting happen, though, expectations are low. “It’s going to be another Anchorage—just in Europe,” said one European diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss their candid opinion.
“I think Putin will overpromise and underdeliver,” said another diplomat, which would potentially set up yet another situation in which Trump becomes angry with Russia again.
One likely condition for an eventual peace—a meeting between Putin and Zelensky—“for sure will not happen,” said a third diplomat. Putin has repeatedly avoided meetings with Zelensky and described him as illegitimate.
Trump’s pressure on Ukraine and Russia is likely driven by his desire for an advantage in negotiations to achieve his goals, rather than long-term strategy, according to Daniel Fried, a former U.S ambassador to Poland.
“He says things for immediate tactical advantage,” Fried said. “The problem with that is he risks having less and less impact, because people won’t take his words seriously.”
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