Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo could be in a virtual dead heat with lefty frontrunner Zohran Mamdani in the Big Apple mayoral race if Republican Curtis Sliwa drops out, a stunning new poll determined.
The newly released report by Gotham Polling and the city AARP found that 44.6% of New Yorkers would vote for Mamdani if Sliwa quit the race, compared to 40.7% saying they’d back Cuomo — with a margin of error of 4 points that puts Cuomo in striking distance.
With all three remaining in the race, Mamdani would continue to trounce the opposition, taking 43.2% of the vote compared to 28.9% for Cuomo and 19.4% for Sliwa, according to the poll.
However, the findings show that 78% of undecided city voters are 50 or older — which could be a difference maker for Cuomo while younger New Yorkers continue to back Mamdani.
“The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds,” said Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics. “If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate—by far the most reliable voting bloc—will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”
The poll relies on 2021 general election demographics with just under 40% of voters under 50 years old. The model though could prove to underestimate Mamdani’s support this November after his campaign added tens of thousands of new young voters, making it a 50-50 split in turnout between the younger and older voters.
Both Sliwa and Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing out to Mamdani in the Democratic Party primary, have repeatedly said they will not drop out of the race for City Hall.
Gotham pollsters questioned 1,040 likely voters over two days last week for the results, and found that the cost of living in the five boroughs was the most pressing concern across all age groups.
That was the main issue for 63.6% of those polled, followed by 48.6% citing public safety and 38.9% choosing housing affordability as their top issue, the poll said.
Nearly 43% of those questioned said they identify as either very liberal or somewhat liberal — a strong showing for Mamdani — compared to just over 23% identifying as somewhat or very conservative.
Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman from Queens, stunned the city when he took the Democratic primary in June over Cuomo and outgoing Mayor Eric Adams, who has since dropped out of the race.
The self-described proud socialist is a Muslim born in Uganda before settling down in the Big Apple.
His lefty stance on a myriad of issues has raised alarm bells among many in city political circles and in the Jewish community due to Mamdani’s criticism of Israel and refusal to condemn Hamas.
Cuomo, a 67-year-old former governor and HUD secretary, slammed Mamdani for his lack of experience during the first of two mayoral debates last week.
On Sunday, he called Sliwa a “spoiler” in the race and again asked him to drop out.
“The problem is Curtis Sliwa is a spoiler in the race,” the Democratic ex-governor said on WABC 770 AM’s the “The Cats Roundtable” radio show. “A vote for Curtis Sliwa is really a vote for Mamdani.”
Sliwa, 71, the founder of the vigilante group the Guardian Angels, a former radio talk show pundit and a past mayoral candidate, turned the tables during last week’s debate, saying Cuomo is the one who should drop out.
According to the Gotham/AARP poll, it may be up to New York’s more mature voters to make the final call.
“Once again, New York’s older voters are poised to decide this election,” said Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director. “These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”
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