Turkish Cypriots will head to the polls on Sunday to elect their new leader and “president” of the , the self-proclaimed state recognized only by .
As the system of governance is a parliamentary democracy, the powers of the Turkish Cypriot “president” are largely limited to managing the negotiations for a settlement of — the into a Greek Cypriot south and Turkish Cypriot north since the Turkish military intervention of 1974, following intercommunal violence in the 1960s.
But the stakes in this election also concern the preservation of the community’s character and identity. Speaking with DW, Turkish Cypriot academic and former EU lawmaker said “the elections to choose a new leader take on the nature of a referendum, both on the will of the Turkish Cypriots regarding the problem and on safeguarding the community’s ethno-political identity.”
Right-wing and left-wing Tufan Erhurman are the main contenders for the top post. The two most recent opinion polls showed significant discrepancies regarding which of the two leading candidates holds the advantage.
The survey conducted by the Center for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies showed Erhurman leading with 50.4% compared to Tatar’s 40.6% — a gap of nearly 10 percentage points which, if confirmed, could result in a first-round victory.
By contrast, a survey by Turkish pollster GENAR showed Tatar maintaining a slim lead with 51.2% against Erhurman’s 47.9%, an outcome that keeps the possibility of a second round open.
Tatar enjoys backing of Turkey
The incumbent Turkish Cypriot leader, Ersin Tatar, is seeking reelection for a second term. He is supported by the right-wing National Unity Party and by the Rebirth Party, which is linked to the Turkish population of the TRNC and is called “the settlers’ party” in the Greek Cypriot community.
In alignment with the position of Ankara and with Turkish President , which states that “the only realistic solution for the Cyprus issue is the acceptance of two states on the island,” Tatar has promised to continue for another five years his policy of promoting the two-state solution.
Tatar’s stance on the Cyprus issue, combined with the Greek Cypriot perception that it departs from the -agreed framework for a settlement, has created a situation that has stalled any chance at real negotiations in recent years.
The convergence between Tatar and Erdogan over the Cyprus issue has ensured Ankara’s backing for his candidacy. This support has been expressed through visits by politicians from Erdogan’s AKP party, Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and figures such as former German international footballer , known for his personal friendship with Erdogan.
However, Turkey’s support for Tatar is not limited to his stance on the Cyprus question. It is also rooted in his tolerance of Ankara’s . During his “presidency” and under the administration of the National Unity Party, a controversial regulation was adopted allowing the wearing of the hijab in Turkish Cypriot schools.
The move sparked strong reactions among the majority of Turkish Cypriots, who saw it as a sign of further Islamization and erosion of the community’s secular identity. However, the Constitutional Court in the TRNC overturned the regulation in September, according to Turkish media report.
Federation on the agenda
On the opposite side, Tufan Erhurman is running for leadership as the candidate of the left-wing Republican Turkish Party. He is also backed by the party of former Turkish Cypriot leader and by Serdar Denktas, son of the historical Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas. Erhurman’s agenda emphasizes the visibility of the Turkish Cypriot community, its culture and secular identity.
Regarding the Cyprus issue, Erhurman has stressed his commitment to UN resolutions calling for a bizonal, bicommunal federation, which he describes as the only realistic option. He has also underlined that the community’s security and future prospects are tied to Europe. Erhurman has set specific conditions for returning to the negotiation table if elected, urging the president of Cyprus and Greek Cypriot leader to prepare for talks.
“Tufan Erhurman wants to negotiate on the basis of federation,” explained academic Kızılyurek, “setting conditions that include timelines and result-oriented talks, while also demanding that the status quo should not be reinstated if the negotiations fail due to the Greek Cypriot side.”
This could translate, he added, “into demands to end the community’s isolation through direct trade and direct flights, which under the current circumstances take place exclusively via Turkey.”
Increase in Turkish population could lead to electoral ‘dominance’
Nikos Moudouros, a Turkish and Middle Eastern studies professor at the University of Cyprus, told DW that recent demographic developments in the Turkish Cypriot community could end up swaying the vote.
Moudouros pointed out indications showing that, out of 218,000 voters, about 55%–60% are native Turkish Cypriots, while around 40%–45% are voters with one or no Turkish Cypriot parent.
The demographic change in the unrecognized TRNC is linked to the granting of thousands of “citizenships” to Turkish nationals over the past five years. Referring to data from previous electoral contests within the Turkish Cypriot community, Moudouros explained that “the political power of native Turkish Cypriots is steadily declining, and it is likely that the population increase of the Turkish element could even translate into numerical dominance at the ballot box in the next election.”
Edited by: Elmas Topcu and Rüdiger Rossig
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