Most Virginians have “accepted the apology” of state attorney general nominee Jay Jones for his disturbing, violent threats about a Republican legislator, a top Democrat is saying. However, recent polling and betting odds cast doubt on that claim.
Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin said in an interview published Friday in Politico that Jones’s violent texts in 2022 about killing Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert were “reckless and unacceptable.”
However, he also said that Virginia voters were forgiving.
“I believe that most Virginians have accepted that apology and that they’ll elect Jay Jones as the next attorney general,” Martin predicted.
Recent polling is telling a different story.
A poll released this week by the Trafalgar Group showed a drop in support for the Democratic candidate, with Jones now having the support of only 43 percent of voters, down from nearly 49 percent earlier in the month, according to the Hill.
In turn, his Republican opponent, Jason Miyares, received a major boost, with support growing nearly four percent, from 45 percent to 48.9 percent.
While some news outlets call Trafalgar a “right-leaning” or “right-wing” polling group, other measurements also seem to support Jones being damaged by the news of his violent texts, which were first revealed in early October by the National Review.
Newsweek reported this week that Jones’s chance of winning had plummeted in betting odds sites, which can often predict outcomes. According to the news magazine:
Jones held a 53 percent chance of winning in Polymarket’s odds as of October 7, but that has steadily dropped since. On Thursday, Miyares had a 68 percent chance of winning, while Jones had roughly a 33 percent chance of winning.
Kalshi’s betting odds told a similar story, favoring Jones all year until the texting scandal broke. It gave Jones anywhere from an 80 to 99 percent chance of winning throughout the summer. But that reversed on October 5. As of Thursday, Miyares had a 62 percent chance of winning, while Jones had only a 38 percent chance in the market.
At a minimum, the race has tightened to a virtual dead heat, according to Jones’s own polling reported by the Hill.
Overcoming the disturbing texts may be a heavy lift.
“Jones, then a member of the Virginia House of Delegates, wrote in a 2022 text message to Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner, ‘Three people, two bullets Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot Gilbert gets two bullets to the head Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time,’” Newsweek stated.
“I’m ashamed, I’m embarrassed and I’m sorry,” Jones said Thursday in a televised debate with the incumbent Attorney General Miyares.
“He has taken responsibility for what he said, and he’s apologized to the former speaker and to Virginians,” DNC Chair Martin told Politico. “I believe in free and fair elections, and Virginia voters are the ones that will have to make this decision … Virginians will make a final decision on who they want to be their next attorney general.”
Contributor Lowell Cauffiel is the author of the New York Times bestseller House of Secrets and nine other crime novels and nonfiction titles. See lowellcauffiel.com for more.
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