The shops in the Syrian town of Hmeimim — hair salons, kebab stalls, a mechanic’s garage — have signs in Russian. But most of them were shuttered on a recent morning.
Soldiers from the nearby Russian air base don’t visit anymore, a cafe owner said.
Ten months after the fall of its ally, the authoritarian president Bashar al-Assad, Russia’s influence is barely visible in Syria. Most of its troops are gone, and the bases and investment projects built up during its decade-long intervention are largely abandoned.
The new president, Ahmed al-Shara, who led the Islamist rebel force that overthrew the Assad regime and upturned Russia’s interests in the region, allowed Moscow to maintain a small footprint in Syria rather than chasing it out completely.
On Wednesday, he was making his first visit to Moscow as president to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin, his former nemesis.
“With al-Shara, we are clearly seeing pragmatism over ideology,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “There is no reason for al-Shara to make another enemy, as he is trying to survive in this geographic region.”
For many Syrians, including the former rebels who now run the country and one-time refugees back home after many years, there is no love lost for Russia. It propped up Mr. al-Assad’s brutal dictatorship for decades and entered the 13-year civil war directly, unleashing deadly bombing raids on Syrian towns and villages.
In previous contacts with Russian officials, Syria’s Islamist leaders have asked that Mr. al-Assad, who has taken refuge in Moscow, be extradited for a war crimes trial and that Russia pay war reparations.
But Syria, under pressure from neighbors and larger powers, faces many security and economic challenges that could motivate Mr. al-Shara to seek compromises. His priorities are to negotiate an end to international sanctions and ease the nation’s crippling poverty , while preventing outside interference as he consolidates power and secures Syria’s borders.
Russia has made clear that it wants to maintain its air bases in Syria — the one at Hmeimim and a smaller one in the northeastern city of Qamishli — and to continue to use the port of Tartus on the Mediterranean coast, analysts said.
Together, they provide Russia with its only stopover points in the eastern Mediterranean for planes and ships traveling to and from Africa.
Officials at the Syrian Foreign Ministry declined requests for comment on the government’s plans for its relations with Russia. But political analysts and politicians in Syria said that Moscow was in no position to make demands.
“The reality is Russia continues to remain in Syria with a big, purple black eye,” said Ms. Aydintasbas, the Brookings Institution fellow.
Russian personnel have to give prior notice of their movements to the Internal Security Service of Syria and are only allowed to travel under escort, according to Syrian security officers guarding checkpoints near Hmeimim and Tartus.
Russia once controlled the naval base at Tartus, but now it can only use a single berth when the Syrians allow it, said Abed al-Thalji, an independent Syrian analyst based in Europe. A Russian submarine that had docked at Tartus now stays in Algeria and Libya, he said. And military vessels that escort Russian shipments to Syria anchor off Egypt, added Mr. al-Thalji, who tracks maritime traffic.
After canceling Russia’s contract to manage the Tartus port, the Syrian government this summer signed a deal with Dubai Ports World, which agreed to invest $800 million in the facility, Ahmed Khalil, who has been the port’s general manager since December, said in an interview.
Business at the port has started to take off since President Trump lifted most of the U.S. sanctions, Mr. Khalil said.
“All the quays are busy and we have ships waiting to come inside,” he said.
There were signs of ongoing Russian trade with Syria. Rolls of Russian steel were among the goods stacked at quays that New York Times reporters saw during a visit in August.
Russia has also provided Syria with much-needed oil and grain at near-giveaway prices, according to several analysts.
Syria needs Russia on its side at the U.N. Security Council for important security and political matters. For one, Mr. al-Shara and his interior minister are still on a U.N. sanctions list targeting members of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, Mr. al-Thalji said. Another is enforcement of the Disengagement Treaty, which created a buffer zone along the Golan Heights and which Israel has breached by occupying Syrian territory since December.
Since Mr. al-Assad’s ouster, Israel has repeatedly bombed Syrian military facilities, concerned that the old regime’s weapons could fall into the hands of parties that are hostile to it. Israel is also suspicious of the country’s new Islamist leaders and has carried out airstrikes on the Defense Ministry building in central Damascus in July.
Under the Assad regime, Russian forces helped patrol Syria’s southern border along the Golan Heights. Diplomats have raised the possibility of Russia’s returning to that role to ease tensions between Israel and the new government.
After months of quiet contacts, Russia sent a senior-level delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Mr. Putin’s top energy strategist, to Damascus in September to recalibrate relations.
Mr. Novak was welcomed by Maher al-Shara, a brother of the president who speaks Russian and is married to a Russian woman. Maher al-Shara is believed to be responsible for Russian affairs in the office of the presidency. After Mr. Novak’s visit, a delegation from the Syrian Defense Ministry visited a Russian air defense training facility.
It is not clear whether any deals are on the table.
But Ms. Aydintasbas said that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, a close ally of the Syrian president, would most likely advise him, based on experience, to balance the risks of upsetting Western partners by drawing closer to Russia against the security and economic gains that could result.
“It’s the Erdogan playbook of balancing acts among great powers and opening up possibilities for a small country,” she said.
Saad Alnassife and Hussam Hammoud contributed reporting.
Carlotta Gall is a senior correspondent, covering the war in Ukraine.
The post Syria’s New Leaders Are Talking to a Former Enemy: Russia appeared first on New York Times.
