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Democrat’s Lead in Race for New Jersey Governor Narrows, Poll Shows

October 15, 2025
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Democrat’s Lead in Race for New Jersey Governor Narrows, Poll Shows
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Representative Mikie Sherrill holds a modest lead in the race for governor of New Jersey against Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee, but her advantage has narrowed slightly in the past month, according to a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University.

The survey, taken last week after the final debate, suggests that Ms. Sherrill, a Democrat, is ahead of Mr. Ciattarelli among likely voters 50 percent to 44 percent, despite recent tumult that has engulfed the race.

A Quinnipiac poll taken in early September put Ms. Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, ahead by eight points against Mr. Ciattarelli, who has been endorsed by President Trump and has high name recognition as he runs his third race for governor.

Both campaigns have intensified their negative advertising in recent days, and the candidates have attacked each other in increasingly personal ways.

Mr. Ciattarelli has highlighted Ms. Sherrill’s absence from her graduation from the U.S. Naval Academy in the midst of a cheating scandal and demanded to know “why she was punished.”

Ms. Sherrill has responded that she was barred from participating in commencement because she refused to “turn in” classmates. She has criticized the Trump administration’s release of her private military records and a decision by the Ciattarelli campaign to share the unredacted document with a news outlet.

Then, during last week’s debate, Ms. Sherrill accused Mr. Ciattarelli of making it easier for patients to access addictive painkillers during the deadly opioid crisis, when he owned a medical education publishing company.

“You killed tens of thousands of people by printing your misinformation, your propaganda,” she said. She held a news conference several days later to repeat her central claim.

Aides to Mr. Ciattarelli, who sold the company eight years ago, have strenuously denied the charge and threatened to file a defamation lawsuit.

“Mikie Sherrill can’t provide any evidence of her reckless claim that Jack’s publishing company pushed people toward opioids because it never, ever happened,” Chris Russell, Mr. Ciattarelli’s chief strategist, said.

On Wednesday, Mr. Ciattarelli’s campaign lawyer asked the state Election Law Enforcement Commission for an advisory opinion on whether Mr. Ciattarelli would be permitted to personally pay costs associated with the suit, or if campaign contributions must be used to fund any legal action. That request at least temporarily delays a decision about filing a lawsuit, which could carry political risk less than three weeks from Election Day.

The new Quinnipiac poll mirrors several other recent independent surveys, most of which have found that Ms. Sherrill holds a lead of between six and eight points in the Nov. 4 race. One independent poll indicated the race was tied.

Only Virginia and New Jersey hold elections for governor the year after a presidential contest, and their results are often seen as bellwethers ahead of the next year’s congressional races.

New Jersey’s race is considered particularly competitive. Democrats hold a sizable registration advantage, but Mr. Trump fared far better in the state than expected last November, buoying Republican hopes. Groups associated with the national Democratic and Republican parties have poured in millions of dollars for advertising and dispatched leading surrogates to energize their voting bases.

Wednesday’s poll suggested that Mr. Ciattarelli had a slight advantage in enthusiasm and among voters who are not registered with either major party. In New Jersey, there are 2.3 million so-called independents — the second largest bloc of voters, behind registered Democrats.

Among independents, 48 percent said they backed Mr. Ciattarelli and 42 percent said they supported Ms. Sherrill.

Roughly 91 percent of voters who support Mr. Ciattarelli reported being either very enthusiastic or somewhat enthusiastic about their choice. About 86 percent of voters who said they intend to vote for Ms. Sherrill expressed similar levels of enthusiasm.

“The raucous debates are done, the attack ads are everywhere and the race is close,” Tim Malloy, Quinnipiac’s polling analyst, said in a statement.

“As the clock ticks down to Election Day, voter enthusiasm will translate into turnout,” he added. “For the moment, in that category, Ciattarelli has an edge.”

Tracey Tully is a reporter for The Times who covers New Jersey, where she has lived for more than 20 years.

The post Democrat’s Lead in Race for New Jersey Governor Narrows, Poll Shows appeared first on New York Times.

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