Celebrations are surely in order as a cease-fire goes into effect in Gaza, the hostages are returned, and humanitarian relief gets delivered to the Palestinian civilian population. U.S. President Donald Trump and his envoys deserve kudos for producing a deal that was on the table for more than a year but which eluded the parties. Palestinians and Israelis deserve a chance to breathe.
It would be an opportunity wasted, however, to fall back into diplomatic self-satisfaction and lose momentum. Even if this phase of the Gaza deal is implemented properly—and that is not a given, in view of the deep suspicions harbored by the parties—dangers elsewhere are growing. Indeed, without a firmer Trump administration hand to slow Israel’s annexationist policies there, hopes of broadening a Gaza agreement into anything close to regional peace could easily die.
Several months before the Oct. 7 Hamas attack against Israel, one of us warned about the prospect of a third intifada in the West Bank. Since then, conditions have worsened considerably, with Palestinian and Israeli violence and increasing settlement activity undermining stability and peacemaking efforts.
Consider the following salient facts. Before October 2023, there were 190 outposts in the West Bank—that is, 190 nascent settlements established without going through the Israeli legal procedures. Between October 2023 and today, Israel has established an additional 114 outposts. Each new outpost, whether a residential community or an agricultural farm, has required additional land being denied to West Bank Palestinians.
During this same period, at least 11 previously unauthorized outposts have been “legalized” ex post facto by the Israeli government; and 68 agricultural sites have been given full infrastructure support. To accomplish these measures, Israel has confiscated about 13,600 acres (55,000 dunams) of Palestinian land by declaring some as “state land,” issuing over 100 military seizure orders, and increasing the buffer zones around existing settlements.
Perhaps most important, the plan to develop the E1 area between Jerusalem and the settlement of Maale Adumim was revived and approved by the Higher Planning Committee in late August of this year. On Sept.11, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed off on that plan in a festive ceremony. The E1 project calls for 3,400 housing units to be constructed. It will effectively bisect the West Bank and make territorial contiguity between the north and south West Bank almost impossible—adding one more impediment to the prospects of a Palestinian state.
Every administration until now had succeeded in pressuring Israel not to build in E1. But not this time. When Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced the intention to advance the E1 project on Aug. 14, the U.S. State Department spokesperson said: “A stable West Bank keeps Israel secure and is in line with this administration’s goal to achieve peace in the region.” U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said the United States “does not oppose” the project and does not consider it a violation of international law. He said decisions about E1 are “for the government of Israel to make.”
While all this was happening—during the war in Gaza, the Israeli attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Israeli and American attacks on Iran’s nuclear program—the security situation in the West Bank deteriorated considerably. Palestinian violence took the lives of 41 Israelis in the West Bank and 17 Israelis inside Israel. Many of these attacks were carried out by individuals in so-called lone wolf actions. Other attacks were carried out by armed groups such as the Lions’ Den and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade.
In response, the Israeli military has carried out around 7,500 raids in 2025 alone. Since 2023, more than 20,000 Palestinians have been arrested and 999 Palestinians have been killed—967 by Israeli forces and more than 20 by Israeli settlers. The United Nations estimates that more than 3,000 incidents were precipitated by militant Israeli settlers.
In short, while all eyes are on the shaky but welcome cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza, the West Bank is simmering. Israeli and Palestinian leaders have welcomed what could be the end of the war in Gaza. But extremist elements within both societies—including ministers in the Israeli government—have expressed opposition to the Gaza deal. They will clamor for “compensation,” which could take the form of yet more settlement activity as the price for remaining in the coalition. At the same time, Palestinian extremists in the West Bank could vent their own anger at Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) over a deal that appears to have satisfied Israel’s war aims.
It is not too late to stop the slide to war in the West Bank, but it will take even more determined and astute leadership than what happened in Gaza. Israel must be brought to curb settler violence and to enforce law and order within the settlement community. Land confiscations must stop and ex post facto legalization actions that tie the West Bank further to Israel must stop. The E1 project must not be implemented.
On the Palestinian side, the PA must muster the strength to crack down on the groups engaged in violence and terrorism. Security cooperation against these groups must be reinvigorated. And the PA must start to govern outside of Ramallah.
Perhaps the greatest uncertainty is whether the Trump administration is up to the task. The administration has said or done nothing to signal that any of Israel’s policies there are of any concern. Indeed, Trump reversed former President Joe Biden’s sanctions on Israeli settlers and has said little about the increase of settlement activity. That the U.S. ambassador to Israel has a history of pro-annexationist statements hasn’t helped matters. If the president is indeed serious about peace, he cannot allow Gaza first to be Gaza only.
This means reaffirming policies against settlements and against E1. It means laying out a political horizon for Israelis and Palestinians. It means acting with the same determination in the West Bank that he demonstrated in Gaza. One and done is not an option.
The road to creating a better pathway for Israelis and Palestinians has always been hard, and it will not be easy going forward. Without sustained U.S. leadership and the willingness to press hard decisions on leaders in Israel and Palestine, peace will not be attained. Indeed, without U.S. determination, we’re likely to end up in a wash, rinse, and repeat cycle promising unending confrontation, terror, and violence.
The post As the War in Gaza Winds Down, the West Bank Is a Flash Point appeared first on Foreign Policy.
