In the world’s tectonic nightmares, a giant earthquake on the San Andreas fault in California looms large. But farther north, another geologic fault — the Cascadia subduction zone — gives disaster planners even more to worry about. The possibility that Cascadia could shake the Northwest in the near future was highlighted in a 2015 New Yorker article that called the hypothetical event “The Really Big One.”
In a study published last month in the journal Geosphere, earthquake scientists suggest that the two faults could have an intertwined fate. Their paper suggests that Cascadia earthquakes of the recent geological past have triggered earthquakes along the San Andreas fault too.
“Cascadia is often talked about as, ‘When it goes, it’ll be the biggest disaster in North American history,’” said Chris Goldfinger, a professor emeritus at Oregon State University whose earlier warnings were highlighted in that New Yorker article. “But what if the San Andreas goes at the same time? It’s still going to be the biggest disaster in North American history, but it’s quite a bit bigger.”
The Cascadia subduction zone stretches from Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California. In this region, an oceanic plate called Juan de Fuca dives beneath the continental plate of North America.
“It’s where there’s a lot of frictional contact that the trouble for people arises,” Dr. Goldfinger said.
With the new paper, he and colleagues have found evidence that the friction could cause problems for people farther south, near the San Andreas fault, which begins at Cape Mendocino south of Eureka, turns inland and terminates near the Salton Sea. Cascadia and San Andreas come together near Cape Mendocino.
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