SATURDAY AM: The impact of Covid thwarting moviegoing is easily felt this weekend as two movies, one a $180M sci-fi franchise reboot in Tron: Ares, and the other a star-studded caper with a hunky leading man, Roofman, are coming in under their estimates respectively with $35M-$37M and $8M.
For Tron: Ares, it’s a start that’s under the previous installment, Tron: Legacy ($44M) 15 years ago. Potential moviegoers are fiercely making the decision not to go, meaning there’s no fear of missing out. This is what moviegoing has become: when it’s undeniable, there’s a flood. When it’s meh, whatever. People weigh their wallets, and if it seems like it’s worth waiting at home for, they’ll wait. Tron: Ares gets a B+ CinemaScore the same as Tron: Legacy — what’s the rush? Definite recommend at 57% in Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak is alright, not ecstatic.
Tron: Ares was looked upon as the movie that would get the fall going in some capacity (no one was expecting that Conjuring: Last Rites which remains this season’s top opener at $84M, nor with Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle at $70M), and Disney gave it their all with San Diego Comic-Con neon stunts, a Nine Inch Nails concert the other night at the premiere, etc.
Why isn’t Tron: Ares brighter? Is it because of Jared Leto and the tabloid headlines he generated in the last year? Disney disregarded that noise and boldly trotted him out at SDCC, as well as other functions, strategically positioning. Sorry, cynics, but he’s not the chief reason why most people went to see the movie in PostTrak audience exits at 14%. Those who bought tickets came because it’s a Tron movie (47%), because it’s sci-fi (41%) and the cool VFX (33%).
Some of what’s going on here as to do with the limitations of sci-fi at the box office. While there are amazing instances of Avatar ($77M), there’s something of a ceiling with the genre outside of Star Wars and some Star Trek. What’s happening here with Tron: Ares isn’t different from what happened with another high-hope, pricey starring sci-fi franchise reboot, Blade Runner: 2049 at $32.7M, which in below its expectations (that had its own franchise mythology mishaps in the marketing; the assumption being the audience for the IP was bigger than it was). We can also add in Furiosa as an underperforming comp at $26.3M.
FRIDAY PM: Disney’s Tron: Ares is looking at $15M today, now set for a 3-day in the mid-to-high $30 million range at 4,000 theaters. It will take a very big Saturday and Sunday to put the Jared Leto movie back in the $40M range.
Here’s some upside: It’s Indigenous People’s Day weekend, hence a 4-day stretch. If MLB and NFL steal the guys away Sunday, here’s to hoping they find the movie on Monday. Comscore reports that 45% of K-12 schools are off Monday along with another 22% colleges.
Currently, No. 2 is between Warner Bros’ One Battle After Another and Paramount/Miramax’s Roofman, each with about $7M-$7.5M. Roofman is booked at 3,362 while One Battle After Another has 3,127 theaters in its third weekend. On the high end for the Paul Thomas Anderson directed-Leonardo DiCaprio starring movie, that’s a -32% ease from its second weekend. Running total by Sunday could stand at $55.3M, which would be +6% ahead of DiCaprio’s Killers of the Flower Moon at the same 17-day mark.
Universal’s Gabby’s Dollhouse is fourth at 3,039 sites with a Friday of $1M, third weekend of $4.2M, -21%, and a running total of $27.2M.
Filing fifth is Sony Affirm’s Soul on Fire at 1,720 with a Friday of $1.4M for a 3-day of $2.5M-$3M.
Ideally in regards to the overall marketplace, it’s bright and sunny when the 3-days of your Columbus Day frame cracks $100M, but it’s clear we won’t have that this weekend. Post Covid, the second weekend of October posted its best in 2023 when all movies totaled $132.9M per Box Office Mojo thanks to the opening of Taylor Swift: Eras Tour. Even if Taylor Swift: Showgirl was around this weekend, yeah, sure, it would’ve dropped, but it would have still provided some more depth to the weekend box office.
FRIDAY AM: Disney is reporting that Tron: Ares previews are coming in at $4.8 million. That includes limited Wednesday early shows and previews that began Thursday at 2 p.m.
Knock on wood this one opens to its tracking, meaning north of $40M; we don’t need any movies underperforming. The fall, though ahead of last year by 2% at around $674M, is OK but not vibrant with myriad starry adult movies such as Dwayne Johnson’s The Smashing Machine and Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey not working. The male-heavy Tron: Ares faces competition from MLB playoffs this weekend as well as NFL. Good news: The pic’s Rotten Tomatoes audience score stands at 86%, better than the previous installment, 2010’s Tron: Legacy, which did 64% fresh.
Tron: Ares previews certainly are ahead of Tron: Legacy‘s preview cash, which was $3.6M, but that was back in the era of the midnight preview. Right now, it’s look like Tron: Ares will file under such fanboy reboots as last year’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($6.6M total previews) and Alien: Romulus ($6.5M). It’s also under that of Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes ($5.8M). Advance ticket sales we told you for Tron: Ares were at $7M, on par with Alien: Romulus, which opened to $42M. Songbirds & Snakes bowed to $45M.
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Previews for the Joachim Rønning-directed movie movie are ahead of The Equalizer 3, which yielded a $3.8M preview and a $35M three-day opening in 2023. Tron: Ares, produced by its star Jared Leto and former Disney Head of Production Sean Bailey, cost $180M before P&A.
Miramax and Paramount’s Channing Tatum-Kirsten Dunst romance caper Roofman collected $1M from 2,800 locations Thursday. Showtimes started at 7 p.m. Audiences gave the pic 4 out of 5 stars on PostTrak. No audience score yet, but reviews are at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes. The $19M production goes wide today at 3,362 sites. Tatum’s Dog did $1.26M in Valentine’s Day sneaks and previews before earning a $5M Friday and $14.8M 3-day driven by his female audience. However that movie was PG-13, and Roofman is rated R. The 3-day on Roofman is around $10M.
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Sony/Affirm’s Soul on Fire made $575,000 from showtimes that began at 4 p.m. at 1,450 sites. The film received an A CinemaScore and 5-star PostTrak rating. The movie is from Soul Surfer filmmaker Sean McNamara. Logline for faith-based film: After suffering an accident, a young boy ends up relying on his family, his faith and his community in his fight for survival.
Here’s the rest of the top 5 for the week
1) Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl (AMC) Wk $34M/Wk 1 (remember, it didn’t play the weekdays)
2) One Battle After Another (WB) 3,634 theaters, Thu $1M (-22%) Wk $16.2M (-49%), Total $47.8M/Wk 2
3) The Smashing Machine (A24) 3,345 theaters, Thu $316K (-34%), Wk $7.7M/Wk 1
4) Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie (Uni) 3,507 theaters, Thu $298K (-1%), Wk $6.6M (-60%)/Total $23M/Wk 2
5) The Conjuring: Last Rites (NL/WB) 2,753 theaters, Thu $370K (-3%), WK $5.76M (-37%), Total $169.5M/Wk 5
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