When Donald Trump brokered the Abraham Accords in his first term, he heralded the normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states as “the foundation for a comprehensive peace across the entire region.” In truth, the Accords were a diplomatic handshake between countries that had never fought a war. They did not resolve the region’s conflicts, and were not the seismic achievement that Trump presented them to be. Last night, however, Trump finally struck his first real blow for Middle East peace—if all goes according to his plan.
“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan,” the president announced on Truth Social, “This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace.” The declaration capped a dramatic two weeks that included the roll-out of Trump’s own peace plan, presidential strong-arming of the parties, and feverish negotiations in Cairo. It was also careful in how it couched what had been achieved.
Thus far, the parties have only agreed to some form of exchange in which Hamas will release its remaining hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners, including many serving life sentences in Israeli jails for terrorism. Even if this release goes forward in the days ahead, that will only end the Gaza hostage crisis, not the Gaza war. That’s because this first phase of Trump’s peace plan does not resolve any of the underlying issues that continue to drive the conflict. Among other outstanding concerns: Hamas will still be standing, still be armed, and will not have been supplanted by an alternative Palestinian regime. Far-right members of Netanyahu’s government will still seek to vanquish the terror group and potentially resettle parts of Gaza. But Trump is counting on the force of his personality, the exhaustion of the parties, and the momentum created by the initial agreement to ultimately end the war entirely.
Toward that goal, the president is already teasing a visit to Israel, where he would potentially address the Israeli Knesset. By making himself the face of the deal and taking a victory lap to Israel itself, he would essentially be binding Netanyahu’s government to the agreement—lest it risk personally embarrassing the American president by undoing his great accomplishment. Moreover, Netanyahu himself has tied his political fortunes to Trump, campaigning on his close relationship with the president. With elections scheduled for next year, he cannot afford a public rift with Trump, and the president knows this. “He’s got to be fine with it,” he told a reporter on Saturday, referring to Netanyahu. “He has no choice. With me, you got to be fine.”
On the Palestinian side, Trump has already used his personal relationships in the region to compel Hamas to move farther than it ever has in past negotiations. The group previously sought to hold on to its hostages for as long as possible, understanding them as its greatest leverage over Israel. But through intense pressure on Hamas patrons Qatar and Turkey—both longtime Trump allies—the president managed to get the terror group to agree to release all their hostages up front. “ALL PARTIES WILL BE TREATED FAIRLY,” he wrote on Truth Social when announcing the new agreement—a not-so-veiled indication to Hamas that he would not permit the Israeli side to resume the war even after it had obtained the hostages.
In that aspiration, Trump has another ally on his side: the Israeli people. Polls have shown for many months that most Israelis—like most Gazans—want to conclude the Gaza conflict. Netanyahu, beholden to a radical right-wing minority on this and other issues, ignored the popular preference until compelled by Trump. But once the hostages are home, and soldiers in Israel’s citizen’s army begin returning to their families, it will be very hard to justify a continuation of hostilities. Many thorny long-term issues will remain—including paths to Hamas disarmament and Palestinian self-government—but the guns will fall silent.
Ending the Gaza war was always going to require the president’s personal investment. Until recently, he seemed disinclined to give it. Trump did not intervene as the first ceasefire he helped broker in January fell apart. But in recent weeks, he seems to have latched onto the issue with renewed vigor—willing to insert himself into the negotiations, bully both Netanyahu and Hamas, and leverage his relationships with regional leaders to finally end the war. If he succeeds, that success will raise another question: How far is he willing to go to achieve his promised peace in the Middle East? The Gaza war is only an acute symptom of the region’s underlying malaise. If Trump has found a formula for imposing his will on the parties to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, why stop here?
Contrary to his claims, the president has not yet brought peace to the Middle East. But if his Gaza peace plan succeeds, he might decide he is just getting started.
The post The Gaza War Isn’t Over Yet. But It Could Be Soon. appeared first on The Atlantic.
