President Donald Trump is sure to be peeved if he looks at how oddsmakers are rating his chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
Not only does Polymarket list Trump’s implied odds at a measly two percent as of Wednesday, two days before the prize is announced, but those long odds also place him at the same level as his 22-year-old nemesis, Greta Thunberg.
Polymarket, which performed better than polling in the last presidential election, lists Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms as the runaway favorite to win the Nobel Peace Prize at 28 percent implied odds. Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, is in second with implied odds of 10 percent.
Others listed ahead of Trump include UNRWA, the United Nations agency responsible for supporting Palestinian refugees; Doctors Without Borders; the International Court of Justice; and Mediterranean Sea Rescue organizations.
While Trump and Thunberg are tied as the seventh favorites on Polymarket, he has commanded by far the most wagers. Nearly $7 million has been wagered on him using cryptocurrency, compared to just under $5,000 for the sea rescue organizations.
Trump, 79, has desperately touted himself as the most deserving winner to the prize committee. He has also complained that he would have already won the prize if he was named Barack Obama (who did win in 2009, his first year in the White House).
JEWEL SAMAD/AFP via Getty Images
The committee, comprising a human rights advocate, a foreign policy expert, and three former ministers, is not expected to look kindly on Trump’s pressure campaign, however. Also sure to hurt his odds is his decision to send troops into American cities run by Democrats, as well as starting a forever war by striking alleged drug vessels in the Caribbean Sea.
Trump has still claimed, without evidence, that he has ended as many as 10 global conflicts, which he and his sycophants argue is enough for him to win the prestigious honor. Those claims ignore that Trump has failed to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, which he promised to do during his presidential campaign.
Geir Anders Rybakken Ørslien/Nobel Prize Outreach
A European diplomat told the Financial Times that it would be a “big deal” if Trump were able to end hostilities in Gaza before Friday’s award announcement, suggesting it might be his only real chance at winning. The British paper noted that Trump has been pushing hard to bring peace to Gaza this week.
Any success in the Middle East may still be for naught. The prize being awarded on Friday is technically based on actions undertaken in 2024, when Trump was still just a candidate and president-elect. His constant lobbying for the award may also be having an inverse effect.
“Putting pressure on the committee, going on talking about ‘I need the prize, I’m the worthy candidate’—it’s not a very peaceful approach,” Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, told the Financial Times.
Trump’s long odds are not exclusive to Polymarket. On Kalshi, another prediction market, Trump is listed as having just a three percent chance of winning—a percentage point below Thunberg.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
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