The World Trade Organization on Tuesday forecast slower trade growth for next year because of the Trump administration’s sweeping global tariffs, but it said that trade had proved more resilient than expected so far this year.
The Geneva-based organization said in a report released on Tuesday morning that it expected goods trade to expand 2.4 percent this year. That was up from its previous forecast of just 0.9 percent, which it issued in August. Trade in goods expanded 2.8 percent in 2024.
But the global body sharply lowered its projection for next year’s growth to just 0.5 percent from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent. The group also forecast slower growth in the trade of services, which it said was linked to flows of goods.
The W.T.O. has repeatedly expressed concern about the economic effects of President Trump’s tariffs, which include double-digit import taxes on nearly all trading partners, along with stiff levies on imports of strategic items like steel, aluminum and cars. The moves have raised average tariffs to levels not seen in the United States in a century.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director-general of the W.T.O., said that “unprecedented” uncertainty over trade policy had slowed growth and that she was concerned about the effects.
But global trade has not slowed as much as anticipated this year in part because W.T.O. members have taken restrained responses to American tariffs and refused to engage in tat-for-tat retaliation, she said. Trade among developing countries had also risen, she added.
“The rest of the world is trading with itself,” she said.
The W.T.O. said that several other factors had also lifted global trade in goods this year. Companies had stockpiled goods before tariffs went into effect, pushing up imports and exports. The world was also seeing strong demand for Artificial Intelligence-related products, the W.T.O. said.
The U.S. government was also scheduled to release data on Tuesday morning on U.S. imports and exports in August. But because of the government shutdown, U.S. data releases have been paused. It is not clear when the data will be issued.
Economists said the August trade data could show a marked slowdown in U.S. imports, because of the steep tariffs Mr. Trump put on exports from dozens of nations on Aug. 7.
In July, government data showed U.S. imports rebounding slightly after months of lower trade, as companies rushed to bring in goods ahead of the additional tariffs going into effect in August.
Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics for The Times and is based in Washington. She has been a journalist for more than a decade.
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