Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the sticking points in Israel-Hamas negotiations, the resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, and how a party leadership pick is shaking Japanese markets.
Points of Contention
Israel and Hamas began indirect negotiations in Egypt on Monday that are focused on accepting the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace proposal. Although Hamas has agreed to some elements of the cease-fire deal, several key details remain in contention, and Israeli strikes in Gaza have continued despite Trump demanding that Israel halt its operations.
Trump, while standing beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, proposed a multiphase peace plan last month that would require Hamas to release all of its remaining hostages within 72 hours in exchange for Palestinian prisoners; nearly 50 captives remain in Gaza, of whom about 20 are believed to still be alive. On Friday, Hamas agreed to some elements of the deal, specifically the hostage exchange framework and a requirement that Israeli forces pull back to the “yellow line,” the place where the Israeli military was in August.
This is “the closest we’ve come to getting all of the hostages released,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
Negotiations on Monday were expected to center on the details of this exchange as well as the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces. Top negotiator Ron Dermer led the Israeli delegation, while senior Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, who survived Israel’s attack on Doha last month, led Hamas’s team. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff was also in attendance.
“I am told that the first phase should be completed this week, and I am asking everyone to MOVE FAST,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE OR, MASSIVE BLOODSHED WILL FOLLOW — SOMETHING THAT NOBODY WANTS TO SEE!”
However, several major sticking points remain. Hamas is seeking guarantees that Israel will follow through on withdrawing its troops once the militant group gives up its hostages as leverage. Hamas has also yet to agree to two other key aspects of Trump’s proposal: the group’s complete disarmament and a promise not to be involved in Gaza’s future governance. Under Trump’s deal, Gaza would be governed by a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts and overseen by an international transitional body that the U.S. president, himself, would lead.
Foreign ministers from eight majority-Muslim countries issued a joint statement on Saturday welcoming Israel’s and Hamas’s steps toward a possible cease-fire, though they stressed that the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs parts of the occupied West Bank, should oversee Gaza. Trump’s proposal maintains that the PA would only become involved in Gaza’s governance once it has completed a reform program.
With Monday’s talks occurring on the eve of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack, on Israel, though, it is unlikely that negotiators will clinch any breakthroughs before the war’s two-year anniversary arrives. Meanwhile, the threat of full-scale war continues to loom over the region. “If the political effort does not succeed, we will return to fight,” said Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Israel’s military chief of staff.
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The World This Week
Tuesday, Oct. 7: Trump hosts Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House.
Spanish lawmakers vote on whether to impose an arms embargo on Israel.
Wednesday, Oct. 8: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins a two-day trip to India.
Thursday, Oct. 9: Seychelles begins its presidential election runoff.
Friday, Oct. 10: The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize is announced.
South Africa hosts G-20 trade ministers.
Sunday, Oct. 12: Cameroon holds a presidential election.
Monday, Oct. 13: The International Monetary Fund and World Bank begin their weeklong annual meetings.
What We’re Following
Out with Lecornu. French politics are once again on shaky ground. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday after less than a month in office and just hours after appointing a new cabinet. His resignation makes him the shortest-serving French premier in the country’s modern history, and it exacerbates calls for President Emmanuel Macron to resign before his five-year term expires.
After weeks of trying to avoid a no-confidence vote in an effort to pass a controversial budget, Lecornu lost a key conservative ally over his pick for defense minister: Bruno Le Maire, who served as finance minister when France’s public deficit soared. Lecornu accused the conservative party of prioritizing political ambitions over what’s best for the country, but key lawmakers maintain that dwindling support for Lecornu (and Macron) is a sign that the current government must hold snap elections.
“We have reached the end of the road,” far-right leader Marine Le Pen said. “There is no other solution. The only wise course of action in these circumstances is to return to the polls.” Paris has remained in disarray since Macron called snap elections last year; Lecornu was France’s fifth prime minister in just 20 months.
Macron must now try to appoint a new prime minister that will appease his precarious coalition partners or else hold new elections. In the meantime, Lecornu’s newly selected cabinet will serve as caretaker ministers managing day-to-day operations until a new government is formed.
Less than optimistic outlook. Japan is on track to welcome its first woman prime minister, after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party chose veteran conservative lawmaker Sanae Takaichi to lead the party on Saturday. However, speculation that she would implement a form of “neo-Abenomics,” having long embraced the policy, has shaken Japanese markets, which fear a repeat of low interest rates and broad government spending.
Although Takaichi has softened her messaging on Abenomics in recent days, she has continued to support several other key conservative policies, including promoting anti-immigrant practices and backing legislation that would require married couples to share a surname.
Takaichi must win support from other parties in Japan’s Diet to secure a governing coalition and be elected prime minister, which may prove to be difficult with the recent rise of a far-right challenger. However, even if Takaichi manages to take power, she faces a rocky road—largely defined by Tokyo’s recent political upheaval. Outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba managed just 12 months in power before being forced to leave office, and Takaichi would be Japan’s 11th prime minister in just 10 years.
Mutual defense promises. Australia and Papua New Guinea signed a historic mutual defense treaty on Monday that will bolster bilateral military integration. This is Australia’s only alliance-level security pact outside of its 1951 ANZUS Treaty with New Zealand and the United States. And it is Papua New Guinea’s first such treaty in the nation’s history. The agreement will take effect once both countries’ parliaments ratify it.
As part of the treaty, “both our nations have also agreed not to undertake any activities or enter into any agreements that would compromise the implementation of this treaty,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said. That promise has angered China, which argued that this exclusivity unfairly targets Beijing.
While Australia remains firmly in the West’s camp, Port Moresby has tried to enrich its economic ties with Beijing. On Monday, the country’s prime minister, James Marape, maintained that Papua New Guinea has no intention of creating enemies elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific. Still, experts expect the deal to hamper the nation’s precarious relationship with China.
Odds and Ends
Three immunologists (two from the United States and one from Japan) won the Nobel Prize for medicine on Monday for their discoveries in immune tolerance, specifically concerning regulatory T-cells and the Foxp3 gene mutation. If you’re like FP’s World Brief writer and do not have advanced medical training, this means that scientists now have a better understanding of how the immune system functions, as researchers hope to use regulatory T-cells to develop treatments for cancer and autoimmune diseases.
Monday was just day one of the Nobel Prize announcements. This week, Odds and Ends will be featuring each Nobel winner. Next up: the ever-exciting world of physics.
The post Israel, Hamas Hold Indirect Negotiations on Gaza appeared first on Foreign Policy.
