PARIS — The political crisis engulfing France is descending into the theater of the absurd.
On Monday morning, President Emmanuel Macron accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who lasted 27 days, and his ministers, who barely managed 14 hours.
By evening, in a wild U-turn, Macron had tasked Lecornu with leading talks with the opposition to find a compromise to a crisis that is roiling French markets and the euro. The French president gave Lecornu — who was already his fifth prime minister since his reelection in 2022 — one final shot to build “a platform of action and stability” by Wednesday evening.
His decision was taken at the end of a rollercoaster day during which the French president himself made no public remarks, but was spotted pacing alone along the banks of the Seine, cutting a solitary figure and apparently weighing up the future of France.
Ultimately, the outcome of his deliberations was underwhelming and appears doomed from the start, as opposition parties piled on the French president and his latest move.
“Let’s move on. They are just trying to buy time, it’s ridiculous, it’s melodrama. Let’s stop this,” said Green lawmaker Sandrine Rousseau.
“Trust is broken,” said Agnès Evren, a senator and spokesperson for the conservative Les Républicains, a party that had been part of Lecornu’s government.
Never before has the French president appeared so isolated and so embattled, with no good card to play. And rarely have the stakes been so high for France’s economy —and the European Union’s. Without billions of euros of budget cuts that France’s politicians seem unable to make, there is a risk international markets will twist their knives into the EU’s No. 2 economy.
No good options
If the French president is trying a last-ditch attempt to salvage Lecornu’s government, it’s precisely because he has run out of other options. Should the outgoing prime minister fail to reach a deal by Wednesday, Macron “will face up to his responsibilities,” according to close advisers quoted in French media — which may mean he will call snap elections.
Even his own supporters doubt he can avoid early elections that would leave him even more weakened than he is now.
“He has played his last card” with Lecornu, said a former French official who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. After both the governments of EU veteran Michel Barnier and top ally François Bayrou were toppled over the past 12 months, Macron appointed Lecornu as “the most loyal of the loyalists,” said the official.
He cannot now appoint a Macron-compatible successor with a lower profile.
Different scenarios are currently being discussed in political circles, including the appointment of a left-wing prime minister, a conservative prime minister or even a technocratic prime minister. But whatever the political hue of the new person in charge, he or she would face the same parliamentary arithmetic and difficulties in negotiating a budget for the country.
“It’s difficult to imagine a way out of the crisis without a vote,” said political scientist Jean-Yves Dormagen, who heads the Cluster17 polling institute.
But a snap parliamentary election would leave Macron’s centrists “weakened” said Dormagen.
“It’s the conservative Les Républicains and the [far-right] National Rally who would be strengthened,” he said.
There’s even a possibility that the far right and the conservatives would emerge from a snap elections with a majority.
“But that doesn’t mean they would work together,” Dormagen said.
The nomination of former Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire in Lecornu’s cabinet, viewed as having let the debt spiral run out of control, had upset Retailleau and Les Républicains.
Throwing himself on his sword, Le Maire announced amid Monday’s fiasco that he would not return to government, opening a potential window of opportunity for negotiations with the conservatives.
But while Retailleau’s camp hasn’t yet ruled out rejoining the government, at this point they’ll likely demand more than Le Maire’s head in exchange for their support.
“Not even Bruno Le Maire’s departure will change anything,” said Evren from Les Républicains.
Walking alone
For the French president, the day of reckoning appears to be nearing as the last of his allies turn against the “Jupiter” who once ruled supreme in French politics.
Macron has long lost the support of once protégés such as former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who on Monday said he “no longer understood the decisions” of his former mentor.
But now, more core supporters are moving away.
On Sunday evening, a historic ally in the French Senate, the centrist Hervé Marseille, turned his back, because he had been sidelined in recent weeks, according to a government advisor.
In Macron’s camp, there’s “anger and disappointment,” said the same former French official quoted above.
“It goes beyond Lecornu because he didn’t have much power, the disappointment is aimed at Macron,” he said.
Others are even more scathing.
“The president wants chaos, he wants a snap election,” said an official from Renaissance, Macron’s political party. According to this official, many Renaissance lawmakers believe the French president is playing a dangerous game, wanting to boost the far-right National Rally, so that he can appear as alternative in 2032.
Macron is barred from running in the next presidential contest after having served two consecutive terms but can theoretically stand in the following vote.
But that’s a long way off. And a lot can happen overnight in French politics.
Anthony Lattier contributed to reporting.
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