MANCHESTER, England — Britain’s ailing Conservatives want disgruntled voters to hear they are tough on immigration, against net zero and looking to keep taxpayer money helping people at home. They are aping Donald Trump — and Nigel Farage — to prove it.
Leader Kemi Badenoch kicked off her annual Conservative Party conference with a headline-grabbing pledge to deploy a new “removals force” with powers to detain and remove 150,000 undocumented migrants, with her top team crediting the U.S. president’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency as their inspiration. The move came hot on the heels of last week’s pledge to repeal the 2008 Climate Change Act — which set targets for cutting carbon emissions and reaching net zero.
Tory Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride will add to the pile with a promise, expected on Tuesday, to scrap “costly and ineffective” green subsidies, and promise more “serious cuts” to Britain’s overseas aid budget.
It all marks another lurch towards Reform UK’s tough border and anti-net-zero rhetoric, going much further rightward than Badenoch — who has tried to accommodate the ideological battle in her party when forming policy — has previously. The Conservatives are trailing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK by 14 points in the polls, and remain four points behind the deeply-unpopular ruling Labour Party.
But they also bring the party dramatically closer to the politics of Donald Trump, and away from the traditional liberal center ground of Tory — and U.K. — politics.
Trying to find the old ‘economy, stupid’ voters
In Manchester, senior Conservatives acknowledge it is a major departure for a party which has historically found success and prided itself on appealing to a broad church of voters. But after a landslide loss last year in which party was unceremoniously booted out of office after 14 years running the country, Tories are grappling with the reality that, as in the U.S., the center appears to have evaporated.
One Tory strategist, granted anonymity like others in this piece to speak candidly about internal party discussions, argued their policy pivot reflected that of the British public.
“The Overton Window has shifted,” the strategist said, referencing the model for understanding how ideas in society change over time and influence politics.
Former Home Secretary Grant Shapps, a self-confessed “centrist” who lost his seat to the ruling Labour Party at the last election, agreed it is crucial to address the political impact of undocumented migration as well as the reality on the ground: “I genuinely think that until a government, no matter what party, gets a grip of this issue, public trust in governance will never come back.”
If the Conservatives can neuter Reform’s migration attack, they believe they will get a hearing on their “Stronger Economy” argument, which forms the second part of their conference slogan after “Stronger Borders.” One ex-Cabinet minister dismissed suggestions the party will alienate the liberal voters they have historically relied on for their broad electoral success by going hard on immigration.
“Most Liberal Democrats who are a bit iffy about a strong line on migration probably went quite a long time ago,” the ex-minister quipped.
Instead, this person went on, answering the migration question is the only way to keep voters listening for the core Conservative case on the economy. “I think if you haven’t got a decent answer on migration, then you are a bit fucked because that is seen as one of those big fractures,” this person said, explaining the party needed to deal with the migration question if it was to get a hearing on what they see as more fertile turf for them.
So Stride, the shadow chancellor, will on Tuesday argue the Conservative Party is the only party which will “stand up for fiscal responsibility,” arguing the government must get on top of government spending.
Tough, but not that tough
Yet top Tories are wary of copying MAGA politics too closely, particularly given concerns about civil liberties that have erupted in the U.S. as enforcement has ramped up.
One senior Conservative said the ICE name was something they came up with “so that people would know what it was.” This person added: “We’re not going to do it in a way that deports people with the right to be here, with no compassion.”
Speaking at the POLITICO Pub on Sunday night, Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel insisted “America’s model is very different” to the one being punted by the British Conservatives.
“What would be set up here under our party would be different as well, because our laws are different,” she said.
The British public generally fails any policy that doesn’t pass the “does that seem fair? test,” according to Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics.
“Hardline immigration measures like forced removals or [indefinite leave to remain] revocation tend to fall squarely in that category,” he said.
“Branding policies as ‘Trump-style’ is politically risky in the UK — our research shows Trump and his approach are deeply unpopular with everyone except a sliver of Reform-leaning voters,” he added.
Time may be running short
For Badenoch, the stakes are high.
There is a frustration within her ranks over her failure so far to move the dial, and capitalize on the current malaise in the ruling Labour Party.
Most of her MPs are willing to give her one more chance this week, but she faces a crucial test in regional and national elections in Scotland and Wales next May.
The clock is ticking.
“If you don’t have any momentum on the back of this, then you have this continuous death loop,” the ex-Cabinet minister quoted above said.
“There has to be a point where the plane doesn’t continue to just aim at the ground.”
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