The humble soybean is the latest flashpoint in the Trump administration’s campaign to reshape global trade.
Used in everything from animal feed to fuel, soybeans regularly rank among the most valuable U.S. agricultural exports, towering over higher-profile crops like corn and cotton.
More than $30 billion worth of American soybean products were exported in fiscal year 2024, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For American soybean farmers, their top overseas market has long been China, which bought around a third of the export crop — approximately $12 billion worth of American soybean products — in the last calendar year, USDA data shows.
But not anymore.
As President Donald Trump’s trade war leaves U.S.-China relations somewhere between frosty and openly hostile, America’s soybean farmers appear to be an early casualty.
An embargo in all but name
So far, China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans during this year’s main harvest period, with sales falling to zero in May.
This has pushed many American farmers reliant on soybeans nearly to the breaking point.
It has also complicated the Trump administration’s plans to provide billions in foreign economic aid to Argentina.
Buenos Aires recently sold more than 2.5 million metric tons of soybeans to Beijing, after briefly suspending its export tax on the soy products.
U.S. officials blame China for the looming crisis facing American soybean producers.
“It’s unfortunate the Chinese leadership has decided to use the American farmers, soybean farmers in particular, as a hostage or pawn in the trade negotiations,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday on CNBC.
Farmers view the situation differently, however. They want Trump to reach a trade deal with China that ends the unofficial embargo on soybeans. But instead, what they see is the White House preparing to bail out one of their chief rivals for the Chinese export market.
“The frustration is overwhelming,” American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland said in a recent statement.
Meanwhile, China — the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans —indicated last week that it won’t resume U.S. purchases unless more Trump tariffs are lifted.
“As for soybean trade, the U.S. side should take proactive steps to remove relevant unreasonable tariffs, create conditions for expanding bilateral trade, and inject more stability and certainty into global economic development,” Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yadong told reporters in Beijing.
Emergency relief is coming
The Trump administration will announce new support for farmers, “especially the soybean farmers,” on Tuesday, Bessent said.
“We’re also going to be working with the Farm Credit Bureau to make sure that the farmers have what they need for the next planting season,” he added.
Bessent personally owns as much as $25 million worth of farmland in North Dakota that produces corn and soybeans, according to his recent financial disclosures.
He said soybeans would be a topic of discussion at the upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum later this month.
Trump is also aware of the impact his trade policies are having on American farmers, starting with soybean growers.
“The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying,” the president posted Wednesday on Truth Social.
“We’ve made so much money on Tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our Farmers,” Trump added.
The question is whether this aid will come soon enough to save this year’s massive harvest of soybeans.
At the center of the firestorm is Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, who warned this week that “this moment of uncertainty in the farm economy is real.” Speaking on Fox Business Network, she emphasized that Trump has long supported U.S. farmers.
“President Trump and Secretary Rollins are always in touch about the needs of our farmers, who played a crucial role in the President’s November victory,” the White House said in a statement Thursday. “He has made clear his intention to use tariff revenue to help our agricultural sector, but no final decisions on the contours of this plan have been made.”
The Argentina factor
The current U.S.-China stalemate over soybean exports is also complicating another American foreign policy conundrum: what to do about Argentina’s faltering economy.
As U.S. soybean exports to China screech to a halt, Argentina’s farmers jumped at the opportunity to sell China their own soybeans.
From their perspective, a potential U.S. economic aid package has nothing to do with their soybean exports, and everything to do with the personal and political alliance between Trump and libertarian President Javier Milei.
Milei was the first foreign leader to visit Trump after his 2024 election victory, and he has become a familiar face at U.S. political events attended by the president’s MAGA supporters.
At a Conservative Political Action Conference outside Washington, D.C. in February, Milei gifted then-Department of Government Efficiency chief Elon Musk a red chainsaw.
Musk then waved it around onstage, calling it “the chainsaw for bureaucracy.”
Eight months later, Milei’s popularity with voters has plunged, raising doubts about the future of his market-friendly economic reforms and strict austerity measures.
Local elections in early September dealt a blow to Milei’s party, triggering massive turmoil in Argentina’s stock and currency markets.
A few weeks after the market plunge, Bessent announced on social media that the U.S. was prepared to deploy billions of dollars to support the South American country.
A presidential delegation from Buenos Aires is expected to visit the White House next week to finalize the U.S. foreign aid deal.
This has infuriated the soybean farmers.
“U.S. soybean prices are falling, harvest is underway, and farmers read headlines not about securing a trade agreement with China, but that the U.S. government is extending $20 billion in economic support to Argentina while that country drops its soybean export taxes to sell 20 shiploads of Argentine soybeans to China in just two days,” Ragland said.
Meanwhile, Milei has also secured a currency swap line for Argentina from China, a situation that gives pause to some in Washington.
In response, Milei has said Argentina will maintain its mutually beneficial trade and economic relationship with China.
Tensions inside the Trump administration over China, Argentina and the soybean farmers broke into the open last week.
While attending the U.N. General Assembly, Bessent received a text message from a contact labeled “BR.”
“We bailed out Argentina yesterday … and in return, the Argentine’s removed their export tariff on grains, reducing their price, and sold a bunch of soybeans to China at a time when we would normally be selling to China,” read the message, widely presumed to come from Rollins.
“Soy prices are dropping further because of it. This gives China more leverage on us,” the message concluded.
Spokespeople for Bessent and Rollins did not respond to questions about the text message exchange.
The post Trump’s trade agenda has a new flashpoint: The humble soybean appeared first on NBC News.
