Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.
The highlights this week: A U.S.-Africa trade agreement expires, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda begin implementing a peace agreement, and Gen Z protests rattle Morocco.
U.S.-Africa Trade After AGOA
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on Tuesday. For 25 years, the trade pact offered many African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market. Its termination could impact more than a million jobs across the continent.
The United States established AGOA in 2000 to help foster economic development in Africa. But in the decades since U.S. President Bill Clinton signed it, the continent’s overall trade with the United States has diminished, in part due to rising commerce with China. AGOA also effectively became moot after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a minimum 10 percent tariff on all countries this year.
At least 32 African countries were participants in AGOA. Among them, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Nigeria, and South Africa were the largest exporters to the United States. AGOA’s lapse will impact them differently.
Nigeria, a petrostate, is likely to be cushioned from negative impacts due to its diversified trade ties. (The country’s biggest trade partners are China and India.) Since the start of Trump’s second term, Nigeria has actively worked to shift its economy away from the United States, including by partnering with other African countries and the United Kingdom.
Smaller nations that are less entwined with China are likely to be the worst affected by AGOA’s expiration. A significant proportion of goods from Madagascar (including vanilla and textiles) and Lesotho (including denim materials) are sent to the United States. Around 60,000 textile jobs are now at risk in Madagascar, according to an industry representative.
In April, Trump announced 50 percent tariffs on Lesotho, which he cut to 15 percent in July. But that reduction came too late: Many buyers in the U.S. denim industry had already begun pulling orders from the country, prompting the government to declare a state of disaster. Authorities warned that the end of duty-free access to the U.S. market could cause up to 40,000 job losses. Lesotho has a population of just 2.3 million.
To make matters worse, Lesotho’s biggest export market is South Africa, which is subject to sanctions threats from the Trump administration. Trump cut aid to South Africa this year over false accusations that the country is committing genocide against white people. South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized nation, was AGOA’s largest beneficiary. As its economy undergoes strains due to U.S. pressure, Lesotho will suffer, too.
South Africa faces tens of thousands of job losses in its fruit and motor industries. Its car exports to the United States declined by 85 percent in May compared with the same period last year, after Trump imposed 30 percent tariffs on the country and 25 percent on vehicle imports globally.
Kenya, meanwhile, could see up to 65,000 job losses in its textiles and fruit sectors, Business Daily reported. Kenyan President William Ruto sought to strike a bilateral trade deal with the United States on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last month.
AGOA could be renewed by the end of the year, given Washington’s focus on countering Beijing. In June, China offered duty-free access to all African nations apart from Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce sent a letter to Congress last month arguing that renewing AGOA would help “deconcentrate and diversify supply chains away from China.”
Last week, African officials held last-minute trade talks with the United States in the hope of saving AGOA. The Trump administration backs a one-year extension of the deal, a White House official told CNN but added that it had other priorities amid a U.S. government shutdown.
South African Trade Minister Parks Tau appeared to back up that reporting. The “consensus suggests that AGOA may be renewed for a short-period,” his office said in a statement on Tuesday.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday, Oct. 7, to Wednesday Oct. 8: The Invest in Senegal Forum takes place in the country’s capital, Dakar.
Thursday, Oct. 9, to Saturday, Oct. 11: Seychelles holds a presidential runoff election.
What We’re Watching
Morocco’s Gen Z protests. Anti-government protests in Morocco continued for a fourth day on Wednesday, even as authorities have arrested hundreds of demonstrators. Young Moroccans took to the streets in at least 11 cities over the weekend accusing the Moroccan government of neglecting health care and education while prioritizing funding for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which it is hosting.
“Stadiums are here, but where are the hospitals?” demonstrators chanted. According to Moroccan media, the protests were sparked by the deaths of pregnant women following C-section operations at a hospital in the southwestern city of Agadir.
Youth unemployment in Morocco reached nearly 40 percent last year but has recently climbed down to 35.8 percent. More than 400 people have been arrested during the protests, while 263 police officers and 23 civilians have been injured as of late Wednesday, according to Morocco’s Interior Ministry.
Congo-Rwanda deal. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda said they will start implementing a U.S.-brokered peace deal this month. Under the agreement, Rwandan troops will withdraw from eastern Congo while both countries’ armies begin military operations against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a rebel group that includes some militants implicated in the 1994 Rwandan genocide. (Rwanda alleges that the group is affiliated with the Congolese army.)
However, the conflict in Congo is unlikely to abate anytime soon: The M23 rebel group, which has seized much of eastern Congo, is not involved in the U.S.-backed deal. Separate talks between Congo and M23 are ongoing. Rwanda denies allegations that it backs M23.
Ghana deportations. The United States announced on Saturday that it had lifted visa restrictions on Ghanaian citizens. The reversal comes after Ghana reached a controversial third-country deportation deal with the United States in September. “I am really pleased that months of high-level diplomatic negotiations has led to a successful outcome,” Ghanaian Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa posted on X.
The Trump administration imposed major visa restrictions on Ghanaian nationals in July. Although Ghana’s government said its decision to accept migrants from other West African countries was based on altruism, critics argue that the United States is using visa bans and high tariffs to coerce African nations into accepting third-country deportation deals.
Russian trafficking in Kenya. More than 20 people were rescued from a human trafficking ring in Nairobi that promised young Kenyans jobs in Moscow but instead intended to send them to fight in Ukraine. Kenyan police said they had arrested a Russian man accused of running the criminal network on Sept. 25.
Some of the victims said they had paid deposits of about $770 and signed contracts pledging to pay up to $18,000 for visas, travel, accommodation, and other logistics. A shortage of jobs for educated young Africans has led many to fall victim to overseas job scams, particularly in Russia and Southeast Asia.
Kenyan police launched an investigation into Russian trafficking last month after Ukrainian forces captured a Kenyan athlete who said he was tricked into joining the Russian army. Moscow has denied involvement in the scheme.
This Week in Investments
China’s rival railway. China, Tanzania, and Zambia signed a $1.4 billion deal on Monday to revamp a railway line to rival the U.S.-backed Lobito Corridor project. The Tazara line, first built by Mao Zedong’s government in the 1970s, runs from Zambia to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania.
The Chinese-built railway line is about 350 miles longer than the Lobito Corridor, which connects Zambia to Congo and Angola. Construction on the Zambian portion of the Lobito Corridor is set to begin next year. The Tazara line provides a faster route to ship Zambia’s copper exports to port.
The state-owned China Civil Engineering Construction Corp. will manage the line for a term of 30 years, according to the deal.
U.S.-Western Sahara business. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau reinforced U.S. support for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara last week. “[W]e will support U.S. companies looking to invest and do business in all of Morocco, including Western Sahara,” Landau wrote on X, following a meeting with Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita.
FP’s Most Read This Week
- Trump to U.N.: ‘Your Countries Are Going to Hell’ by Christina Lu
- Robert McNamara Chose Loyalty to the President by Julian E. Zelizer
- Trump Is Learning Geopolitics 101 in Real Time by Suzanne Nossel
What We’re Reading
Turkish drone diplomacy. In Foreign Policy, Mohamed Gabobe examines Turkey’s use of drones against al-Shabab in Somalia. “The use of Turkish drones both by the Turkish government and states backed by Ankara has spread across Africa, to the Sahel region, Libya, and even Ethiopia,” Gabobe writes.
“For Turkey, this represents a crucial component of a wider strategy to diversify energy sources, enhance its geopolitical leverage, and project power beyond its traditional sphere of influence.”
Roosevelt’s African expedition. In Smithsonian magazine, Brian Handwerk writes about a new book published by the Smithsonian Institution that explores former U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt’s fascinating but controversial 1909 safari through what was then British East Africa.
The Smithsonian-Roosevelt African expedition helped gather a significant portion of the animal collection at the National Museum of Natural History in Washington. The trip “contributed a lasting scientific legacy in Africa; it was one of the first to extensively collect and document animals and plants beyond the classic big-game species,” Handwerk writes.
However, other articles recounting the infamous expedition portray a less favorable version of events, alleging that Roosevelt and his son Kermit killed more than 500 animals.
Luxury yachts and oil deals. A New York Times investigation alleges multiple conflicts of interest in deals negotiated by Massad Boulos, Trump’s senior Africa advisor and the father-in-law of Tiffany Trump.
During Boulos’s July visit to Libya, which was focused on oil production, Tiffany and her husband, Michael Boulos, took a luxury cruise in the French Riviera aboard a yacht owned by a billionaire oil trader who stood to benefit from increased Libyan oil output, the report suggests.
“Career diplomats, U.S. allies and even some members of Mr. Trump’s inner circle have become concerned as Mr. Boulos has conducted what at times has been freewheeling diplomacy in Lebanon, in the Democratic Republic of Congo and beyond,” the authors write.
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