As a government shutdown looms, two storms are brewing in the Atlantic. For many, it raises the question of what might happen if communities are impacted by extreme weather while the federal government halts all non-essential work.
The deadline to avert a shutdown is tonight at midnight. A number of federal agencies focused on climate and science stand to be left in the lurch—but after already operating in limited capacity after cuts earlier this year, it might not be much of a change. The limited staff, funding, and data heading into a shutdown, however, could leave the federal government even more unequipped to prepare for and respond to climate risks.
Neither hurricane Humberto nor tropical storm Imelda is expected to make landfall in the continental United States, but both are forecasted to generate some coastal flooding, high surf, and life-threatening rip currents along parts of the East Coast this week. The good news is that FEMA’s emergency response functions would continue to operate during a government shutdown. The agency receives funding through the Disaster Relief Fund (DRF), which is allocated at the beginning of the financial year and available until it’s spent, so it theoretically would not rely on the federal government to continue operating in the event of an emergency. Much of the agency’s staff is considered essential, and would be available during an emergency.
But given the mandatory early retirements, furloughs, and reductions in force that much of the government saw earlier this year, FEMA, along with other agencies, are already operating at an extremely limited capacity.
“All of those fears we have about what’s going to happen to FEMA during a shutdown, essentially, that’s the world we’re living in at the moment,” said Manann Donoghoe, fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Community Uplift. “FEMA already is operating in that ‘immediate-needs’ funding status as it would be under a government shutdown.”
Along with staff, FEMA’s funding has been dwindling. A June 3 report projected that the agency’s DRF would run out of money by the end of August. This could have implications in a worst case scenario during a shutdown.
“You’re looking at a situation where you would want to go to Congress and get additional appropriations if there happens to be a major event, which the costs for which exceed that which is already in the Disaster Relief Fund,” says Donoghoe.
If the agency required additional funds to respond to serious damage caused by a natural disaster during the shutdown, they would be unable to appeal to Congress.
A shutdown would impact other agencies as well. In 2019, when a government shutdown furloughed a number of federal workers for 35 days, scientists warned that the loss would have major impacts on scientific research—and put at risk data sets that help federal, state, and local governments prepare for natural disasters and inform policymakers about climate risks.
“Basic cuts in data collection means that everything from private companies and corporations through state and local governments can’t plan,” says Carlos Martín, vice president for research and policy engagement at the nonprofit research institution Resources for the Future. “You need data about your demographics, greenhouse gas emissions to basically compete on a global level, to sell products internationally, and to prepare for your workforce and long term viability of communities.”
Even before the threat of a shutdown, lags in data collection have left the country unprepared for a major disaster. “It’s long-term planning that makes [the difference between] these shocks being stronger and more impactful, or more muted and mitigated,” says Martín. “So it’s important to realize that we are setting ourselves up for some serious problems.”
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