NATO is trying to beat Russia and China on drones and robots. A top commander says it’s not moving fast enough.

• NATO is working to integrate drones, robots, and other emerging technologies into naval operations.
• The alliance is innovating and modernizing to get an edge on adversaries.
• But a top commander told Business Insider that NATO isn’t moving fast enough.

NATO is racing to arm alliance navies with cutting-edge warfighting tech, from drones to robots, but leadership warns that it’s not fast enough to guarantee a decisive edge over top foes.

“Do I feel we’re developing fast enough? No,” Commodore Arjen Warnaar, the Dutch commander of Standing NATO Maritime Group 1, one of the alliance’s naval quick reaction forces, told Business Insider. He stressed that the technological edge over adversaries must be “as big as possible.”

“I would say that it’s never fast enough,” Warnaar said. “Given everything that’s happening around this, obviously, I’m feeling a certain sense of urgency, and I’m not alone there.”

Earlier this month, NATO forces participated in exercises off the coast of Portugal that were designed to provide allies with a space to test drones, robots, and other emerging technologies that could ultimately help modernize their naval capabilities.

The twin naval exercises — REPMUS (Robotic Experimentation and Prototyping with Maritime Unmanned Systems) and Dynamic Messenger 2025 — were viewed among NATO leadership as a way to evaluate integrating new and innovative systems into an operational environment.

The process rests on the philosophy that innovation and progress in warfare is a constant game of cat-and-mouse between one force and the opposing side. Warnaar called it “the first law of military technological development.”

“Any effective system will be countered in due time,” he said. “So it is very important to keep on developing.”

Warnaar said the way to stay ahead of a continuous action and reaction cycle and maintain a technological edge over an enemy is through “spiral development,” and the recent exercises in Portugal provided NATO with a platform to experiment in this space.

Spiral development has been a key theme in Ukraine, where technological innovation in battlefield tech has been highly visible. The combatants are constantly scrambling to outsmart the enemy and create new solutions — from drones to air defenses — in a bid to stay ahead.

Ukraine, for instance, developed naval drones to attack Russian warships in the Black Sea. Moscow responded by sending out more patrol aircraft to better monitor the area from above. Kyiv then responded by equipping its naval drones with surface-to-air missiles, which have already shot down jets and helicopters.

Kyiv’s spiral development process is “existentially important” and is the difference between winning and losing, Warnaar said. NATO needs to avoid finding itself in this situation, which is why events like REPMUS and Dynamic Messenger are critical, he added.

The recent exercises focused on a range of operations, including the protection of critical undersea infrastructure, naval mine warfare, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, integrated command and control, and defending against air and sea drones.

Among the hundreds of new technological systems that were tested is an underwater drone capable of naval mine countermeasures, seabed surveys, and reconnaissance, as well as a robot that can identify potential threats and relay sonar data to command centers ashore.

Warnaar said that NATO is “obviously not” as quick as it wants to be in developing and fielding new technology, although he notes that there is plenty of pressure to make progress.

“There are all kinds of very exciting developments taking place,” he said, “and I think our speed is increasing, so we’re moving in the right direction.”

But the clock is ticking. The Ukraine war continues to demonstrate how technological innovation can catch the enemy off guard, and military officials worldwide recognize that the future of warfare is likely to be increasingly autonomous over time.

“We know the Russians and the Chinese have their own technological development and assets,” Warnaar said. “We have to make sure that our development is faster than theirs.”

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