The monthly jobs report on Friday is expected to provide crucial evidence to economists, policymakers and investors who are trying to determine whether a slowdown in hiring over the summer continued into the fall, and whether deeper cracks are forming in the foundation of the U.S. labor market.
If, that is, there is a jobs report on Friday at all.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the monthly jobs data, will “suspend all operations” if Congress and the president fail to reach a deal to extend funding for the federal government before a Tuesday midnight deadline, according to a contingency plan released by the Department of Labor. Data releases scheduled during a government shutdown “will not be released,” and data collection for future reports will cease, the memo said.
That means a shutdown could delay not only the jobs report on Friday but also other data, including key inflation figures that were set to come out in mid-October. Reports from other agencies, including the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis — which are part of the Commerce Department — would also be affected.
The potential lapse in data comes at a particularly critical moment for economists and policymakers, who have been struggling to make sense of conflicting signals about the health of the labor market and the broader economy. Job growth has slowed significantly in recent months, but the unemployment rate has remained low. Measures of consumer spending and some other economic activity have likewise stayed relatively strong.
“We are currently seeing an economy that may or may not be at a turning point, particularly for the labor market,” said Martha Gimbel, who worked at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration and is now executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale. Such turning points are always difficult to recognize in real time, she said, which makes it even more important to have as much high-quality data as possible.
“Less data is not going to make understanding the economy at such a pivotal time easier,” Ms. Gimbel said.
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