For many Americans, getting an abortion has become far more difficult since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. But even in the face of states imposing new restrictions and clinics shutting down, the number of abortions continued to climb each year—until, it seems, this one.
About 518,940 abortions were provided by clinicians in states without near-total abortion bans in the first six months of 2025—a 5% decrease compared to the same period the year before, according to new research released by the Guttmacher Institute, which studies and supports sexual and reproductive health and rights. The number of people traveling across state lines for an abortion in that time also fell—by about 8%—compared to the same period in 2024.
The new findings mark a reversal of the trend seen in previous research the Guttmacher Institute has released: past data revealed that the number of abortions provided by clinicians in most of the U.S. jumped up by 11% in 2023, the year after the court’s decision, compared to 2020. In 2024, that number increased just slightly—by less than 1%—compared to the year before. Out-of-state travel that year, though, saw a small decrease compared to 2023.
While the number of people traveling across state lines for abortions has continued to fall this year, that figure is still “significantly higher” than it was before Roe was overturned, researchers noted.
Isabel DoCampo, a senior research associate at Guttmacher who worked on the new analysis, suggests that one explanation for the overall decline in the group’s findings could be that the growing use of so-called shield law provisions means that more people in states with near-total bans may be receiving abortion pills in the mail via telehealth, rather than having to travel across state lines.
DoCampo tells TIME that researchers only analyzed the abortions provided by clinicians in states without near-total bans, so Guttmacher’s estimates don’t include abortion pills sent to states with near-total bans under shield laws, or self-managed abortions. That means, she says, that “we shouldn’t consider these estimates to reflect trends in abortion nationwide.”
Rather, DoCampo says that the data “highlight that shield laws, I think, are a critical option that people are making use of.”
“This is an innovation of the last couple years that I think has been incredibly important, and it’s important that policymakers and advocates continue to protect and expand these provisions because it’s clear that they’ve been incredibly important to the abortion access landscape in the U.S.,” she continues.
Read More: What Are Abortion Shield Laws?
Another explanation for the trend could be the increasing burden of traveling across state lines to access care, which DoCampo says points to “the need for policymakers to address some of these financial strains.”
DoCampo also points out that there’s variation in the data between states.
The declines in the number of abortions provided were largest in states that implemented a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy in 2024, and in states that bordered those with near-total bans. In Florida, for instance, there were 27% fewer abortions provided by clinicians in the first six months of 2025 compared to the same period the year before. Florida implemented a six-week ban in 2024; before that, the state had a 15-week ban.
Illinois, which DoCampo says is a major destination for people traveling from other states to access abortion care, has seen a significant decline in the number of out-of-state travelers so far this year. And that drop accounted for nearly three-quarters of the overall decrease in the number of abortions provided in the state. “Declining travel is the primary source of the decline in caseloads in Illinois,” she says.
Meanwhile in New York, the number of abortions provided by clinicians in the state declined by roughly 5%, but the number of people traveling to the state to access care increased by about 51%. DoCampo says that was likely because there were more people traveling from Florida to New York, given Florida’s new restrictions on abortion.
Overall, however, DoCampo says the research indicates a reversing trend from previous years, when the number of abortions being provided was rising.
Diana Greene Foster—a professor at the University of California, San Francisco who was not affiliated with Guttmacher’s research—agrees that the apparent overall decline in abortions provided so far this year could be due to people accessing care under shield laws, which the data don’t capture. But she says she is worried that some people may not be able to access pills via shield laws or travel out of state to get care.
“A decrease, to me, just raises the concern that there could be people who want abortions who don’t get them,” Foster says. Foster conducted her own yearslong research project that found that people who were denied abortions experienced worse economic and health outcomes than those who did receive care.
“My big concern is whether people who need to travel are able to travel,” she says. “We don’t know from this data that they’re not, but it is a concerning possibility.”
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