Ties between Pakistan and the US continue to build momentum under President Donald Trump as Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir visited the White House last week, bearing praise for Trump along with plans for more economic and strategic cooperation.
In a statement, Sharif thanked Trump for helping broker a deal in July promising a lower tariff rate for Pakistan in return for US investment in Pakistan’s energy, mining and agriculture sectors.
The White House share photos from the Oval Office meeting, where Munir is seen presenting Trump with a box full of rare earth minerals. This is Munir’s second visit to the US this year.
It whether Pakistan really possesses “massive” oil reserves, as Trump has put it. But Trump notably took a jab at New Delhi when in July, quipping that India may “one day buy Pakistani oil.”
Sharif’ also called Trump a “man of peace” last week and credited the president for between India and Pakistan after a in May, which was sparked by a deadly militant attack on Indian tourists in India-administered Kashmir.
Munir has said Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, while Trump played any role in the ceasefire.
Pakistan’s rising star at the White House comes as . The hopes of Trump continuing the close relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have faded, as the distance between the two men feels far greater that during Trump’s first term.
On a geopolitical level, the US and India have been building strategic ties for many years, for example, vis a vis China, while maintaining a cooperative trade relationship.
Now, India a 50% tariff from the US over its continued imports of Russian oil amid the war in Ukraine.
India’s long-term strategy
Closer US–Pakistan ties are now prompting doubts in Indian policy circles about the reliability of the US as a strategic partner.
Harsh Pant, head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a New Dehli think tank, told DW that the calculus of Indian foreign policy could change if Pakistan grows to become central to US strategy.
“If India doubts Washington’s commitment as a long-term partner, it will fundamentally alter how India addresses challenges in the Indo-Pacific,” said Pant, who is also a professor of international relations at King’s College in London.
“This would not only reshape India’s approach to the region but also impact America’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy, the Quad partnership, and the many collaborative efforts between India and the US to balance rising Chinese influence,” Pant added. The Quad is a joint forum of four Indo-Pacific powers: India, the US, Australia, and Japan, which Washington hopes will curb China’s influence in the region.
Pakistan plays the field with Saudi Arabia
Further complicating the geopolitical picture is Pakistan’s recent , an important US ally in the Middle East. The pact includes a mutual defense clause, stating “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”
For India, having its archrival aligned with a major Middle Eastern power is a strategic concern. However, Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian envoy to Pakistan, told DW that Indian policymakers are not yet alarmed.
“Given Pakistan’s economic troubles, it is compelled to adapt its foreign policy to stay relevant to its three main international backers: the US, China, and Saudi Arabia. It tries to monetize its location by leveraging shifting geopolitical circumstances and pushing transactional relationships. India views Pakistan’s actions as part of its ongoing effort to remain globally relevant, ” Bisaria said.
Bisaria added that India’s leadership is confident that time will eventually run out on the US and Pakistan’s current rapprochement.
“India is alert to these maneuvers but not overly concerned given the sustainability of Pakistan’s balancing act and the inevitability of disappointment in US-Pakistan ties in the long run,” he added.
Trump’s transactional nature
Meera Shankar, a former Indian ambassador to the US, told DW that looks at both India and Pakistan through a transactional lens that is mainly focused on economic gain.
Both countries are “viewed through this prism of economic competition and not as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. The Indian economy is not in competition with the US but, rather, is complementary, helping to build the competitiveness of American firms,” said Shankar.
The diplomat warns that Pakistan has learned to exploit these US priorities by offering small, incremental favors to remain useful, but she also believes that the US-Pakistan relationship is ultimately unstable and unreliable for either side.
“US-Pakistan relations are now shaped by what concessions Pakistan can offer such as transactional counterterrorism cooperation or other deals and not by any enduring partnership or trust,” she said.
The tides of US-Pakistan ties
Amitabh Mattoo, dean of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies in New Delhi, said strong ties between Washington and Islamabad are a cyclical phenomenon.
“It has been a recurring feature of South Asian geopolitics since the Cold War. Each time the US has rediscovered , it has done so for largely instrumental reasons,” Mattoo told DW.
First it was the “Cold War against the Soviets, then the ‘war on terror,’ and now, arguably, the need for logistical access and tactical leverage in a turbulent West Asia–Central Asia arc,” he added.
Mattoo said that Washington is now more aware than in the past of Pakistan’s duplicity in counterterrorism and remains deeply invested in as a strategic partner, especially in the Indo-Pacific.
“In that sense, Washington’s courtship of Islamabad is less about abandoning New Delhi and more about hedging in a volatile region, even though the Trump administration is increasingly unpredictable,” added Mattoo.
Edited by: Wesley Rahn
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