While the world’s richest man might have breathed a sigh of relief after his Starship rocket completed a stellar launch last month, Elon Musk can’t afford to celebrate just yet.
The SpaceX rocket, the largest ever built, is expected to undergo its 11th test launch in October, hoping to replicate its August success, which came after three disappointing flights.
What’s more, Musk still faces big hurdles at his rapidly expanding space business — what was once the world’s most valuable private company, at $400 billion, until it was recently topped by OpenAI.
A lunar-lander version of Starship in development is a key element of NASA’s Artemis mission to land Americans back on the moon in a space race with the Chinese. And an even larger version of the 403-foot-tall rocket is seen as a foundation for SpaceX’s future commercial launch business.
In pursuit of its goals, SpaceX is seeking to increase the launch frequency of Starship at its Texas test site and of its Falcon 9 reusable rocket at Vandenberg Space Force Base — but is facing opposition over environmental issues.
Here’s a rundown of the challenges and opportunities facing the privately held company, which moved its headquarters to Texas last year but retains design, manufacturing and other operations at its Hawthorne hub, where it employs more than 5,000 workers.
The company did not respond to a message seeking comment.
What did SpaceX achieve with its Starship flight last month?
SpaceX’s goal has been to have the Starship spacecraft atop its massive rocket achieve a controlled landing in the Indian Ocean, while the reusable Super Heavy booster is similarly brought down. The first two flights this year were partially successful when the booster was caught by robotic “chopstick” arms on the launchpad in South Texas. but the upper stages were lost. A third flight saw both stages lost after separation. But last month, each stage performed as expected, prompting an exuberant Musk to post, “Great work by the Spacex team!” on his social network X.
Why is it so critical for the Starship test flights to make constant progress?
NASA’s Artemis program to return astronauts to the moon relies on a version of the Starship upper stage called the Human Landing System that SpaceX is building. The plan is to have the craft dock in lunar orbit with a Lockheed Martin capsule that is launched by NASA’s SLS rocket built by Boeing and other contractors. The SpaceX craft will then ferry the astronauts to the moon and back to the lunar orbiting capsule. SpaceX must first demonstrate it can refuel the lander in Earth orbit in a complicated procedure after takeoff so it can carry out its lunar mission.
Given engineering challenges SpaceX is facing, can it meet the mission deadlines?
The Artemis I mission in 2022 sent a remote capsule around the moon, and the Artemis II mission, which might launch in February and doesn’t involve SpaceX, will send four astronauts on a lunar fly-by. The current official target date for Artemis III is no earlier than mid-2027, but members of a NASA safety panel warned this month that they doubt the lunar lander will be ready in time. Laura Forczyk, executive director of space industry consultancy Astralytical, said she wouldn’t be surprised if the mission doesn’t launch until 2030, given multiple issues beyond SpaceX’s own technological challenges. “I hope that they prove me wrong, but when it comes to human spaceflight everything is delayed,” she said.
What other SpaceX programs are reliant on the development of Starship?
SpaceX primarily provides launch services to commercial and military satellite customers with its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, which has a payload of up to 23 metric tons. Its larger Falcon Heavy boosts that to nearly 64 metric tons, while a fully resusable Starship could launch up to 150 metric tons. A planned larger version of the rocket would add even more payload. That kind of capacity, coupled with the ability to have controlled landings, would radically lower launch costs — making feasible such things as cargo deliveries to any point on Earth, manufacturing in space and colonizing not only the moon but perhaps Mars, Musk’s dream for decades. Musk recently posted on X that Starship could account for as much as 98% of orbital payloads by 2027.
How will Starship boost SpaceX’s plan to build out its Starlink satellite network, which provides internet access across the globe?
SpaceX has launched nearly 10,000 Starlink satellites with its Falcon 9 rocket, and last month Starship deployed dummy versions of its soon-to-be-released third version of the satellites, which are larger and more powerful. With plans to launch tens of thousands more satellites, Starship is critical to that endeavor. The payload of a Falcon 9 is fewer than 30 of the current satellites, while Starship could launch more than 100 of the next generation.
What obstacles is SpaceX facing with its launch plans?
The Federal Aviation Administration this year approved a request by SpaceX to increase the number of its Starship test flights at its South Texas launchpad to 25. A coalition of environmental groups filed a lawsuit in 2023 alleging the government failed to conduct a full environmental review of the launches, but that lawsuit was dismissed this month. The Center for Biological Diversity told The Times that it is assessing its options, including an appeal. SpaceX paid nearly $500,000 this year to resolve Environmental Protection Agency allegations that it discharged cooling water after launches and engine tests into nearby wetlands.
Isn’t SpaceX facing opposition over additional Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy flights from Vandenberg Space Base?
Yes. The California Coastal Commission in August unanimously voted against SpaceX’s plan to increase annual launches from 50 to 95 per year at the Santa Barbara County complex, citing sonic booms and other concerns. SpaceX launches spy satellites for the government there but also Starlink internet satellites. The military argues all of the launches benefit national security objectives, meaning it is unlikely the vote will delay the company’s plans. A Vandenberg spokesperson said the base expects to maintain “a steady space and test-launch cadence for the remainder of the year” but couldn’t provide exact figures.
What about SpaceX’s plans to get into the mobile communications business?
SpaceX bought $17 billion worth of wireless spectrum this month, giving the company the capacity to provide mobile service anywhere around the world. Last week, it asked the Federal Communications Commission for permission to launch 15,000 satellites in support of what it said may become a hybrid network with ground-based cell towers. SpaceX has already partnered with T-Mobile — which had its own spectrum and is offering a service that allows customers to text when they are off the grid.
Does that mean I could end up having SpaceX as my cellular provider?
Unlikely. Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s chief operating officer, speaking at a conference this month, said the company will work with chip and device makers to make the spectrum available on phones — and then work with telecom companies to provide almost “wholesale capacity to their customers.”
Craig Moffett, a telecommunications analyst at MoffettNathanson, said that the spectrum allows SpaceX to cover the more than 500,000 square miles of U.S. territory without mobile service. “Cell towers, by and large, cover all the populous areas of the country, but for rural customers, there are still significant parts of the day when you might be out of reach of the network,” he said.
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