Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, is a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center and host of the weekly podcast “World Review with Ivo Daalder.” He writes POLITICO’s From Across the Pond column.
Russia is at war with Europe. It has been waging an overt war in Ukraine for over a decade now, and with increasing ferocity since its full-scale invasion in 2022. But the fighting in Ukraine is only part of Russia’s wider war against Europe as a whole.
This month’s drone incursions on Poland and Romania and flying into Estonian airspace underscore Moscow’s broader intent: dividing Europe and the U.S., weakening public support for strong military action and ending the continent’s support for Ukraine.
But until now, Europe hadn’t taken this threat seriously. It preferred to view Russia’s escalating operations — the assassinations, cyberattacks, sabotage of critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns and more — as falling into a gray zone below the level of armed conflict. And its chosen response was to improve resilience while, at times publicly, condemning Russia for its actions.
Essentially, Europe imposed no cost on Moscow for its covert agitation against the continent — and that’s a mistake.
This failure is behind the significant escalation in the Kremlin’s attacks on Europe over the past three years. As a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) underscores, the number of such attacks grew while the full-scale war got underway, and the reason is clear: Russia was stymied by Ukraine’s stubborn defense on the battlefield and the support it has received from Europe and the U.S.
“Russia simply does not have the wherewithal to fully subjugate Ukraine by force,” Britain’s MI6 chief Richard Moore noted the other day. “Yes, they are winding forward on the battlefield, but at a snail’s pace and horrendous cost, and Putin’s army is still far short of its original invasion objectives,” he added. “Bluntly, Putin has bitten off more than he can chew.”
The only way Moscow can now achieve its objectives is by weakening Europe’s support for Ukraine and exploiting divisions within and among NATO nations. This is what its covert war against Europe aims to do.
The IISS report details just how many of Russia’s attacks on European infrastructure consist of facilities linked to the war in Ukraine. As the country’s military faltered in 2023, the number of attacks on Europe nearly quadrupled, and they increasingly targeted “bases, production facilities and those facilities involved in transporting military aid to Ukraine.”
Then, in the first half of this year, the attacks declined significantly, likely reflecting Moscow’s assessment that U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office would weaken support for Ukraine. And, indeed, it did — Washington ended its military and economic assistance to Ukraine and sought a diplomatic conclusion to the war that accepts many of Moscow’s conditions.
But even as the U.S. shifted course, Europe’s commitment to Ukraine has remained steadfast — and even increased: Key European countries are now seriously discussing the deployment of a significant security force in Ukraine once fighting ends; European governments, led by Germany, are sending large amounts of weapons to Ukraine — including some bought from the U.S.; financial support for the country’s economy and rapidly expanding defense industry is growing; additional sanctions are in the offing; and the EU is seriously considering seizing Russia’s frozen assets.
Faced with such staunch commitment, Putin is now pushing even harder.
It’s probably no accident this all started after the Russian leader’s Alaska meeting with Trump, where he assessed the U.S. was unlikely to resist further escalation from Moscow. And clearly, escalation there has been: Since that meeting, Russia’s bombing of Ukraine has intensified— including the largest drone and missile attack of the war, which came in early September. And even as his military efforts inside Ukraine grew increasingly brazen, Putin decided to test Europe and NATO.
First, Russia sent 19 drones across the Polish border on Sept. 10, followed by another drone crossing the Romanian border a few days later. Then, last week, three Russian MiG-31 warplanes crossed into Estonian airspace and loitered for 12 minutes (Though used as an interceptor, the MiG-31 is capable of carrying and launching the Kinzhal hypersonic missile that Russia has repeatedly used against Ukraine).
In all three instances, European forces met the military test of effectively neutralizing the threat, including shooting down some of the drones headed toward an air base in Poland. But NATO countries failed the political test.
The U.S. response to the repeated violations has been notably tepid, with Trump and other officials suggesting the drone attack on Poland might have been a mistake. The president also made clear that he’s “not gonna defend anybody.”
NATO, for its part, convened twice for Article 4 consultations — first at the behest of Poland and then Estonia. It also announced a beefed-up military presence along the Eastern flank. But still, Putin has paid no price — and until he does, Russia will continue escalating, aiming to weaken European support for Ukraine and divide the alliance.
What, then, could and should Europe do?
One idea, supported by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, is to extend NATO’s defenses by intercepting drones and missiles over Ukrainian territory. This could be done with European fighters and air defense systems operating from European airspace or territory, or over the skies of Ukraine. It would be a defensive measure that directly contributes to Ukraine’s defense as well.
Another action is to make clear that any further Russian incursion into European airspace, territory or maritime domain will lead to military action designed to destroy or disable the violating system in question. This, too, would constitute a defensive measure — one that would reduce the likelihood of Russia continuing to breach European territory.
Finally, Europe should provide Ukraine with the capacity to strike critical logistical nodes and war-supporting facilities in Russia. Kyiv has produced long-range drones and is now finalizing the development of ballistic missiles that have already struck Russian energy and other facilities. The continent could help in that effort with more sophisticated weapons and support.
Europe is at war with Russia, whether it likes it or not. It’s high time to recognize this reality and act accordingly.
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