Just four men who crossed the English Channel in small boats from France to the United Kingdom have been deported back to France under a migrant-swap scheme signed between the two countries in July.
The deportations, which have taken place over the past week, were carried out under a “one-in-one-out” migrant deal signed between the UK and France.
A fifth, Eritrean, man has won a High Court ruling placing a temporary block on his deportation. The Home Office was refused permission to appeal by the Court of Appeal on Tuesday.
The deal, which had an initial target of exchanging 50 migrants between the UK and France each week, was designed to stem the arrival of tens of thousands of migrants from France to the UK in small boats.
This year, more than 32,000 people have made the journey. Last week, UK Home Office figures showed that 1,072 people crossed the English Channel in 13 boats – an average of more than 82 people per boat – on September 19 alone.
How does the one-in-one-out agreement with France work?
Under the one-in-one-out agreement, France will accept the return of asylum seekers who crossed to the UK but cannot prove a family connection to the UK.
For each migrant France takes back, the UK will grant asylum to one migrant who has arrived from France and who can prove they have family connections in the UK.
The deal emerged after a bilateral summit between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron in London back in July.
The UK ultimately hopes that those with connections to the country will wait to be brought from France via this agreement, rather than attempt to cross the English Channel in a small boat, while those without connections will not try to cross. Experts say it is unlikely to deter people determined to travel to the UK, however.
Why was this agreement made?
The deal was introduced to discourage migrants from making risky crossings over the English Channel from France to the UK in small boats.
A rising number of immigrants have tried to cross from France to the UK in recent months, Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, told Al Jazeera in July.
Many of those without visas or permission to enter the UK attempt the dangerous crossing in small inflatable boats, often paying large sums to gangs that arrange the journeys. These crossings are extremely dangerous and have resulted in many deaths.
So far this year, more than 30,000 people have attempted to cross.
The UK and France have each laid the blame on the other for the rise in numbers.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been facing domestic pressure to put a stop to undocumented migration to the UK.
Since his Labour Party won the last general election in a landslide in July 2024, its popularity has plummeted, in part as a result of the failure to stop the small boat crossings from France. Starmer himself dropped in popularity by 19 percentage points between July 2024 and August 2025, according to pollster YouGov.
By contrast, popular support for the far-right, anti-migration Reform UK party has grown significantly. The party’s manifesto states: “Illegal migrants who come to the UK will be detained and deported. And if needed, migrants in small boats will be picked up and taken back to France.”
In an August YouGov poll, 38 percent of respondents said they believed Reform would be most effective at handling immigration and asylum, compared with just 9 percent of respondents who said the Labour Party would handle these issues best.
How has the one-in-one-out scheme been used so far?
On September 18, two months after the deal was announced, the first person was sent from the UK to France under the deal. The man, an Indian national, was deported to France on an Air France flight.
On September 19, the second person was deported under the deal. The Eritrean man was also sent to France.
The same day, an Iranian man was also sent to France, according to unnamed British government sources, multiple news outlets reported.
An Afghan man was reported to have been deported to France on Tuesday this week.
The identities of those deported have not been revealed.
The UK expects to receive migrants from France in return this week.
How successful has the scheme been so far?
Not very. Despite an initial target of sending 50 migrants back to France per week, the UK has so far sent just four since the scheme was introduced in July.
Even if the target was met, critics say, only 2,600 migrants could be sent back in an entire year.
On average, 700 undocumented migrants arrive in the UK by small boat each week, so returning 50 people to France weekly would mean only about one in 14 migrants is sent back.
Apurav Yash Bhatiya, an assistant professor in economics at the University of Birmingham, who has conducted research into small-boat crossings, told Al Jazeera that the UK government also faces steep constraints over who can be removed under this deal – for example, those without family ties – and who can be accepted from France, as well as ongoing legal challenges from deportees.
“Even if the government reaches its initial target of swapping 50 migrants a week, it looks negligible compared with the thousands making the journey in the same period. In that sense, it risks being a symbolic gesture rather than a meaningful deterrent.”
Critics also say the migrant-swap scheme is unlikely to deter people determined to reach the UK.
Has the number of people attempting sea crossings from France to the UK dropped?
On average, about 175 migrants arrived in the UK in small boats daily in July. This average fell slightly to 115 in August and has been about 113 in September so far, according to government data.
However, it is still much higher than the number crossing to the UK each day earlier this year: an average of 35 in January, 34 in February, 148 in March and April, and 84 in May, before rising to 172 in June.
Bhatiya said people who are desperate enough to attempt these boat crossings – during which many people have died – are unlikely to be deterred by an agreement such as this one with France.
“My research shows that even tragic en route fatalities do not reduce small boat crossings in the short term,” he said. “Trying to stop people at the final stage of a long, costly journey [financially, physically, and mentally] misses the point. Last-minute deterrence rarely works, and many will simply keep trying until they succeed.”
What should the UK government be doing instead?
Bhatiya said a more effective solution would be to expand safe and legal migration routes to reduce the number of people willing to take dangerous journeys.
“Very few Ukrainians have attempted small boat crossings because they had legal alternatives,” he said.
There are several legal migration schemes for Ukrainians to reach the UK, such as the Homes for Ukraine scheme, which allows a sponsor in the UK to provide accommodation to Ukrainian refugees from the war with Russia.
The UK also needs to “rebuild deeper cooperation with European institutions”, Bhatiya added.
When the UK left the European Union in 2020 following the 2016 Brexit referendum, it lost access to Eurodac, the EU database that helps identify whether an asylum seeker has already claimed asylum in another European country, he explained.
“Without it, the UK struggles to return people who have applied in other countries, weakening enforcement and encouraging repeat attempts. The current one-in-one-out scheme is a much narrower arrangement,” Bhatiya said.
Can people challenge deportations made under this deal?
Yes. The Eritrean man who was deported last week made a last-minute attempt in court to stop his deportation to France. However, the High Court rejected his bid.
The unidentified man told the BBC that he felt “very bad” about going to France. Citing French officials, the BBC reported that the man would be taken to a migrant accommodation centre, from where he would have eight days to either claim asylum in France or return to his home country.
However, another Eritrean man, aged 25, was successful in his bid at the High Court, which placed a temporary block on his deportation this week so he can present evidence that he is the victim of modern slavery, as he claims. He arrived in the UK on a small boat in August and had been due to be sent back to France on September 17. The UK’s Home Office was denied permission to appeal this at the Court of Appeal on Tuesday.
To claim asylum in France, one must first visit the Initial Reception Establishment for Asylum Seekers, also known as SPADA, the French acronym, to book an appointment at the Dedicated Asylum Application Service Centre, or GUDA, to register the asylum application.
After the application is registered with GUDA, it is sent to the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons, or Ofpra, which ultimately approves asylum applications.
What have been the reactions to the UK-France migrant deal?
It has been broadly condemned by both sides of the political spectrum in the UK.
Referring to the High Court block on one of the deportations on Tuesday, Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp of the opposition, right-wing Conservative Party, said: “Yet again the courts have stepped in to block a deportation, proving what we warned from the start, unless you tackle the lawfare strangling Britain’s borders, nothing will change.
“This is nothing but a gimmick. Even if by some miracle it worked, it would still be no deterrent, as 94 per cent of arrivals would still stay.”
Steve Valdez-Symonds, the migrant rights director for Amnesty International UK’s Refugee and Migrant Rights, released a statement in August, saying: “Once again, refugees are treated like parcels, not people, while the public is left to pay the price for, yet another cruel, costly failure dressed up as policy.”
Will the scheme continue if it’s not working?
Earlier this month, the AFP news agency cited an unnamed French interior ministry source saying: “We may terminate the agreement if we do not find it satisfactory.” The report added that the ministry source called the deal “experimental”.
However, the UK prime minister’s office has voiced optimism about the deal. After plans to deport migrants on September 15 and 16 were delayed, reporters asked Starmer’s spokesperson if the deal was “in shambles”. The spokesperson responded with a simple, “No.”
The post How effective is UK’s one-in-one-out migrant deal with France so far? appeared first on Al Jazeera.
