PHOENIX — Arizona will continue to see an 18% reduction of its Colorado River water allocation next year, as decided by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
The level of future potential cuts is uncertain as the basin states are up against a 2026 deadline to negotiate new operating guidelines.
The state currently gets about 40% of its water supply from the Colorado River, according to Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke. He said the state’s cuts, which have been going on for several years due to low reservoir levels, mainly impact agriculture.
“Historically, that water would have been used in many ways, … by farmers in central and southern Arizona, Maricopa and Pinal counties mostly. So, they’ve lost that Colorado River supply,” Buschatzke said.
Farmers that use Colorado River water in active management areas and other parts of the state are very efficient at water use, at about 80% efficiency. However, Buschatzke said drip irrigation can help get them closer to 90% efficiency to help mitigate the impact cuts.
He said his department was prepared for the cuts based on how much water there is in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, which are both at about 30% capacity. Despite lower-than-normal water levels, Buschatzke said there is still over two trillion gallons in Lake Mead.
States that use Colorado River water aren’t treated equally
Arizona isn’t the only lower basin Colorado River water user dealing with supply cuts. Mexico and Nevada do, too, but at lower percentages than the Grand Canyon State.
California, however, is not being forced to take cuts because it has senior rights and is more reliant on Colorado River water than the other lower basin states.
However, Buschatzke said the Golden State is doing its part to conserve water in Lake Mead through voluntary compensated conservation programs.
“In 2019, California agreed to take cuts when Lake Mead hit a certain elevation,” Buschatzke said.
Colorado River operating guidelines expire next year
Elected officials and water leaders have been negotiating for their states as Colorado River operating guidelines are set to expire at the end of 2026.
Buschatzke explained the upper and lower basin states need to come to an agreement before October of next year. And whatever agreement they come to will likely need to be approved by the state legislatures and Congress.
Buschatzke said he’d like to see the four upper basin states — Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming — agree to mandatory cuts as part of the new operating guidelines, adding it’s been a struggle to get them to do that.
“To date, the four upper basin states have not put any of that on the table in the discussions. And it’s inequitable for Arizona to have to take those mandatory, certain and verifiable cuts without others doing that as well,” Buschatzke said.
As a result, Arizona faces the possibility of larger cuts in the future.
How climate change affects Colorado River supply
The strain on the Colorado River is a result of climate change, according to Buschatzke.
Drought plays a role as well, but droughts are temporary. The Southwest has seen lower than normal runoff for the past 20 years.
“We’ll get average or close to average snowpack in those upper basin states. And we’ll get anywhere from 30%-70% runoff, snowmelt that makes it into the river. That’s because it is warmer, the soil is drier and it sucks up that melted snow before it gets to the river,” Buschatzke said.
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