Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia have recognised Palestinian statehood, a symbolic response to Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza and territorial expansion in the occupied West Bank.
More states, including France and Portugal, are expected to recognise Palestine in the coming days after the announcements on Sunday.
Israel has responded in recent days by doubling down.
Shortly before the announcement, Shosh Bedrosian, a spokesperson for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said the PM had called the act “absurd and simply a reward for terrorism”.
At an event in occupied East Jerusalem on September 15, Netanyahu promised his supporters that there “will be no Palestinian state”.
While this act by the three states – Canada, the UK and Australia – grabbed the world’s attention and many headlines, analysts tell Al Jazeera that it is a small, symbolic step in the ongoing indignity, murder and displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, albeit it one with some weight.
“Recognition matters in this case because close US allies have so far reserved it until the day after a negotiated agreement,” Rida Abu Rass, a Palestinian political scientist, told Al Jazeera.
“It matters because these countries broke ranks. In terms of its impact, Israel finds itself further isolated, and I think that’s meaningful.”
On the same day as recognition was announced, at least 55 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza on Sunday. At least 37 of them were killed in Gaza City, where the Israeli army has unleashed another brutal campaign of violence.
Performative recognition?
Analysts have expressed scepticism that recognition might improve the material conditions of Palestinians currently suffering under Israeli aggression.
Israel has killed at least 65,283 people and wounded 166,575 in its war on Gaza since October 2023; figures that are thought by many experts to be much higher. During the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel, 1,139 people died, and another 200 or so were taken captive.
Meanwhile, in the occupied West Bank, the Israeli military and violent settler attacks have killed more than 1,000 people, as the Israeli government threatens to completely annex the entire territory.
Israel’s war, which both Israeli and international experts and human rights groups call a genocide, is not expected to subside after Sunday’s actions, analysts said.
“As long as it doesn’t come with concrete actions, such as sanctions, arms embargo, and the implementation of a no-fly zone in occupied Palestine with a coalition of forces from the international community to alleviate the suffering of the people, I remain pessimistic,” Chris Osieck, a freelance researcher who has contributed to investigations from Forensic Architecture and Bellingcat on Palestine and Israel, told Al Jazeera.
Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera that the move is mainly performative.
“I think they’re under increasing pressure from the international community and also from their local populations to do something,” he said.
“This is, I think, their way of doing something or saying that they did something without actually taking substantive action.”
Still, recognition does mean that the three countries can now enter into treaties with the Palestinian government and can name full ambassadors.
For its part, the UK will recognise Husam Zomlot as the Palestinian ambassador to the UK.
Zomlot said in a statement that the “long-overdue recognition marks an end to Britain’s denial of the Palestinian people’s inalienable right to self-determination, freedom and independence in our homeland”.
“It marks an irreversible step towards justice, peace and the correction of historic wrongs, including Britain’s colonial legacy, the Balfour Declaration and its role in the dispossession of the Palestinian people,” he said.
Joining international organisations
Much of the world already recognises the State of Palestine.
The recent additions mean that only the United States, a handful of European and Baltic states, South Korea, Japan, and a few other states do not recognise Palestine.
However, even with most of the world on board with Palestinian statehood, the country is still not a full member state of the United Nations.
“[Recognition] brings no new UN privileges, nor does it enable Palestine to become a member of new intergovernmental institutions – not without US support,” Abu Rass said.
“Palestine is currently a ‘non-member observer state’,” he explained. “To become a full member would require the recommendation of the UN Security Council [followed by UN General Assembly vote] – unlikely, to say the least, given US veto powers.”
Still, it could be a first step.
International pressure has intensified on Israel to end its war on Gaza, particularly from Europe. Boycott campaigns are gaining momentum that could see Israel expelled from Eurovision and participation in international sporting competitions.
And the European Union has recently discussed increasing tariffs on some Israeli goods and applying sanctions to some Israeli leaders.
“Recognition has no direct impact on Israel’s actions in Gaza, but it may signal these countries’ willingness to take real measures, which would have a direct impact on Israel’s actions in Gaza, such as two-way arms embargos – meaning, neither selling weapons to Israel, nor buying weapons from Israeli manufacturers,” Abu Rass said.
Leaders ‘saving face’
Analysts told Al Jazeera they believe some Western states, despite discussing Palestinian recognition for months, are taking the step as a punishment for Israel’s aggression on Gaza and the occupied West Bank. This is bolstered by conditional support for statehood expressed by some states.
They say that these leaders are responding to myriad domestic pressures in their own countries, including pressure from pro-Israel groups with ties to establishment parties, at the same time that a growing chorus of constituents is calling for state action and penalties to stop genocide.
“This is happening now because of growing domestic pressures on these centre-left governments,” Abu Rass said.
“Nothing changed, per se [but] what we’re seeing is a slow, cumulative reaction to a low simmer – a growing liberal disaffection – and these steps should be seen as a low-cost way to satisfy constituents’ demands.”
“They’re saving face,” Abu Rass added.
In July, the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he would recognise Palestine unless Israel took “substantive steps” to end its war on Gaza.
On Sunday, Starmer reiterated that recognition comes as a response to the political realities in Israel and Palestine today.
“This is intended to further that cause,” Starmer said on Sunday. “It’s done now because I’m particularly concerned that the idea of a two-state solution is reducing and feels further away today than it has for many years.”
Australia also made its recognition conditional, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese saying: “Further steps, including the establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening of embassies, will be considered as the Palestinian Authority makes further progress on commitments to reform.”
A special burden
One hundred and eight years ago, the British government signed the Balfour Declaration, declaring its support for a “national home for the Jewish people” in the land of Palestine.
The United Kingdom has been a historical ally for the state of Israel against the Palestinians, so recognition of the state is also, to some, a recognition of the UK’s complicity in the displacement and dispossession of Palestinians.
“Britain bears a special burden of responsibility to support the two-state solution,” UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said during a speech at the UN in July.
Despite the historic symbolism, analysts were not convinced that the future would break from the last 100 years.
“Even if Palestine is recognised by every country in the world, little would change for Palestinians unless the Israeli occupation is dismantled,” Abu Rass said.
“International pressure has a role to play here, but it needs to move further than mere recognition, including sanctions, cutting diplomatic ties, the prosecution of war criminals, and cultural boycotts.”
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