PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron wants to pull off a grand diplomatic coup on Monday by collecting several Western countries together to recognize a Palestinian state, but he’s a long way from delivering a genuine breakthrough in Gaza.
The limits to what he can achieve at the United Nations General Assembly are clear. European heavyweights like Germany and Italy will not be joining his initiative and there’s little prospect his efforts can sway U.S. President Donald Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war.
The big idea in New York is to trumpet the recognition of Palestinian statehood by France, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Portugal, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, Australia and Canada. One French official called it a “diplomatic victory” for Paris.
Macron’s ultimate goal is to show there is a global counterweight to Trump’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza, and to ramp up the pressure for peace. Comparisons are already being made with France’s defiance under Jacques Chirac to stand up to the U.S. over the invasion of Iraq in 2003 — a position also articulated in a landmark speech at the U.N.
There is, of course, a strong domestic political motive too. European leaders are conscious of their need to ride a wave of public anger about the war, which is only growing as the death toll in Gaza surges. The pollster YouGov has found public support for Israel in Western Europe is plumbing historic lows.
But how much influence does Macron actually have? Even the French admit the grandstanding and big gestures in New York will make no immediate difference to the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, as Israeli tanks crunch forward in a ground offensive. Neither Israel nor the United States will hold back because of Macron.
What’s more, the French president’s attempt to show a common front also reveals how disunited Western Europe looks, particularly when EU and NATO countries are treading on eggshells around Trump because of the war in Ukraine.
Germany, Italy, Greece and the Netherlands won’t be signing up. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz will not even attend, having found more pressing concerns at home. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has insisted she is not in favor of recognizing a Palestinian state “prior to establishing it,” and will arrive a day after Macron’s event.
‘It doesn’t change anything’
The gamble, according to one European diplomat, who was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, was that “Israel would give some ground” as international pressure mounted against it.
But the diplomat conceded it didn’t look like the gamble was paying off: “That doesn’t look like it’s happening. The U.S. supports Israel, and they are accelerating annexations in the West Bank.”
Another diplomat noted that as long as Israel has the support of “their great ally the United States with its Iron Dome … it doesn’t change anything.”
For many observers, though, Macron’s push is less about the immediate impact and more about creating a watershed moment in Europe’s relations with Israel.
Europe is haunted by its role in the Holocaust and has only ever taken “symbolic, small” steps against Israel, said Kristina Kausch, Middle East expert with the German Marshall Fund think tank, even if Europeans were “uncomfortable with how Israel treated the Palestinians.”
“But the developments in the last two years, and in last months, led to the realization that things can’t carry on,” she said.
For Kausch, the European Commission’s move last week toward imposing sanctions and tariffs on Israel represents that sea change in Europe’s mindset. “It is unprecedented,” she said. “Trade measures are usually only taken against authoritarian countries such as Myanmar or Belarus,” she said.
Under pressure
In the weeks and days ahead of Macron’s conference on Palestine, the U.S. and Israel have tried to scupper France’s diplomatic offensive.
Washington last month refused to grant the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, a visa to travel to the U.S. to attend the annual gathering of the United Nations.
Israel is floating various retaliatory measures against France, and Prime Minister Netanyahu and his top aides are mounting a last-minute bid to persuade Macron to tie French recognition of Palestinian statehood to the release of the remaining Israeli captives held by the Hamas militant group.
“If he’s going to tie the recognition with the release of hostages, then Israel can swallow it,” an Israeli official told POLITICO on the condition of anonymity to speak about a sensitive issue.
For France, the backlash is proof that its diplomatic efforts are having an effect and that Israel and the U.S. are increasingly isolated.
“It’s not going to change much for the Gazans,” said France’s former Ambassador to the Mediterranean Karim Amellal. “But we are seeing alliances shifting. There’s Israel and the U.S. against most European nations including Germany … and the dynamic now is going to accentuate their isolation,” he said.
France’s former Ambassador to Syria Michel Duclos drew direct parallels with France’s push against the Iraq war in 2003. “France was weakened politically, economically, but it was still capable of channelling the feelings of a majority of countries,” he said.
But another parallel is clear too. As Duclos recalls, France’s turn in the diplomatic limelight in 2003 did not prevent the invasion of Iraq, or the ensuing years of turmoil across the Middle East.
“It risks being a waste of time,” he said.
The first European diplomat quoted above dismissed Macron’s statehood conference as “the last act of a president who wants to leave a legacy behind him.”
Excuses, excuses, excuses
The cast list for Macron’s conference on Palestine is hardly stellar in terms of European leaders.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Belgium’s Bart De Wever, Portugal’s Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and leaders from Luxembourg and Malta will attend Monday’s conference. A bit more heft will come in the form of Canada’s Mark Carney and Australia’s Anthony Albanese, who are expected to make speeches.
In a sign that European resolve to stand up to the U.S. and Israel is fragile, a majority of other European leaders, even like-minded ones, have found reasons to steer clear of Macron’s conference.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is attempting to navigate between pressure from his own party and avoiding the opprobrium of Trump, who paid a largely friendly visit to the U.K. last week.
Starmer is not expected to attend the U.N. gathering, leaving it to the Deputy PM David Lammy and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper. He has faced criticism since taking office for the amount of time he has spent abroad at international summits, while several of his most pressing domestic missions remain unsolved.
Germany’s Chancellor Merz won’t be attending, either, sending his Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul instead. Officially, Merz’ absence is due to domestic matters requiring his attention, such as parliamentary discussions on next year’s national budget.
The convenient timetable clash also allows the German chancellor, a firm opponent of recognizing Palestinian statehood, to avoid directly confronting Paris — and others — on the international stage. Time and again, the chancellor and his government have spoken out against such a step.
“The German government is not currently considering recognizing Palestinian statehood,” Merz said on Thursday night during a visit to Madrid. “We continue to view such recognition as one of the final steps, not one of the first, on the path to a two-state solution.”
Kausch from the German Marshall Fund explained: “It’s not necessary, nor politically convenient for him to go. … It’s enough that they do not block things and let France and Spain move the conversation forward,” she said, with reference to Germany’s decision to back France’s declaration in support of a two-state solution. Spain already recognizes a Palestinian state.
Standing alongside Sánchez, who has taken a particularly tough line on Israel among EU states, Merz added: “It comes as no surprise that we may have different opinions on this matter. Of course, this also has something to do with German history.”
Italian Prime Minister Meloni, never a fan of backing Macron’s initiatives, is also staying away, choosing to arrive in New York a day after the conference. Last week, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani dismissed moves to recognize Palestine as “absolutely useless.”
“Recognizing a Palestinian state today is way of giving ourselves a good conscience and doesn’t solve the problem,” he said in the Italian senate on Thursday.
A senior Greek official said the timing was wrong: “We are unreservedly in favor of the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, we believe that unilateral recognition at this moment does not produce any beneficial results.”
On Monday, Macron may be able to airbrush out the divisions among Europeans with a rousing speech and a carefully choreographed conference, but the splits matter when it comes to taking action.
For now, there hasn’t been sufficient support among EU countries to pass either sanctions or tariffs against Israel, with the latter requiring a qualified majority to pass.
But this could change. According to two diplomats in Brussels, if Israel takes steps such as annexing territory in the wake of Macron’s statehood conference, EU countries that have so far opposed any EU-wide measures against Israel, notably Germany, may decide to change their position.
Even then, however, the real power will still lie with Israel’s rock-solid allies in Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not minced his word’s about the French president’s “reckless” plan that he says will be “a slap in the face to the victims of October 7th.”
Nicholas Vinocur, Nektaria Stamouli, Jamie Dettmer, Aitor Fernández-Morales and James Angelos contributed reporting.
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