PARIS — France is bracing for Israel to hit back hard after President Emmanuel Macron recognizes Palestinian statehood alongside other countries on Monday at the United Nations General Assembly.
According to two European officials and a person familiar with the Israeli government’s thinking, who like others quoted in this piece were granted anonymity to candidly discuss a sensitive geopolitical issue, Israel is preparing multiple options. Those could include accelerating West Bank annexations; closing the French consulate in Jerusalem; and encroaching on French-owned territory in Israel, such as the Sanctuary of the Eleona, a Christian pilgrimage site.
Israeli police last year entered the complex on the Mount of Olives, which is home to a large monastery, sparking a diplomatic incident between the two countries.
Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel warned in an interview with French radio earlier this month that closing France’s diplomatic outpost in Jerusalem — which predates the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 — “was on the table of the [Israeli] prime minister.”
The person familiar with the Israeli government’s thinking said the question is less whether Israel retaliates than the scale of the retaliation. Israel wants to send the message that the Netanyahu government will not bow to international pressure when it comes to Palestinian affairs.
Karim Amellal, a former French ambassador who handled Mediterranean affairs, said Israel “won’t stop at anything in terms of retaliation.”
Whatever happens, relations between France and Israel are going to “deteriorate enormously,” said a European diplomat. “[Macron] has been the driver on this issue … and already the dialogue with Netanyahu is complicated.”
The French president surprised allies and adversaries alike over the summer when he announced France would become the highest-profile Western democracy to recognize a Palestinian state. His tireless campaign to get others to follow suit appears to have borne fruit, as several countries — including Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom — have announced plans to grant recognition or take fresh steps toward recognition at a conference on a two-state solution at the U.N. General Assembly.
Spearheading the effort earned the French president a rare political win and could end up being a legacy achievement, but it also puts France directly in Israel’s crosshairs given Macron’s leading role. Haskel, the Israeli deputy foreign minister, singled out Macron as the leader who “is pushing lots of countries” to recognize a Palestinian state.
“The initiative was created and advanced by the French president, and it’s why the main reaction will be vis-à-vis France and not other countries,” said Hen Feder, the spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Paris.
The statehood push from Macron coincides with efforts by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to increase pressure on Israel over Gaza. The Commission on Wednesday unveiled plans for unprecedented tariffs and sanctions targeting Israel over findings of human rights violations in Gaza, prompting an angry response from Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who accused von der Leyen of “empowering terrorist groups” in a letter obtained by POLITICO.
Israel and the United States have repeatedly argued that recognizing a Palestinian state has the same effect — it rewards the militant group Hamas, which was largely responsible for the Oct. 7 terror attack that sparked the current crisis, and undermines negotiations to obtain the release of Israeli hostages still held in the Gaza Strip.
Relations between Israel and France, which is home to Europe’s largest Jewish and Muslim populations, have been made more complicated by the personal antagonism between Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who have had some very public clashes.
Netanyahu sent a letter to Macron that was made public, accusing him of pouring fuel on an “antisemitic fire” with his plan to recognize a Palestinian state. Macron forcefully rebutted those accusations in his own correspondence.
Antisemitic attacks have increased in France in the wake of the Oct. 7 attacks against Israel, but no hard numbers have been made public to back up the assertion by Netanyahu or U.S. Ambassador to France Charles Kushner that such incidents have increased since Macron unveiled his recognition plan. Kushner was summoned by the French foreign ministry over his comments.
Paris, meanwhile, is preparing a range of possible retaliation moves to Israel, according to a French diplomat. According to the French daily Le Figaro, the options include closing an Israeli consulate in France and expelling Israeli spies operating in France.
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