“Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao’s tender portrait of love and loss and the cathartic power of art, had just finished screening at the Telluride Film Fesitval, and on my way out the door, I cut through the lines for the restrooms, where women (and some men) were openly weeping, one moviegoer sobbing so hard that a friend had to prop her up against the wall to keep her from collapsing in the walkway.
Later the woman who was sitting next to me in the theater approached me at a party. “I just wanted to thank you for not crying,” she said. “I didn’t want to be the only unfeeling monster in the room.”
The fall film festivals — Venice, Telluride and Toronto — have wrapped, and out of the dozens of awards season contenders that were unveiled, it’s safe to say that “Hamnet” emerged as the big winner. An emotionally raw, fictionalized account of William Shakespeare and his wife grieving the loss of their young son, “Hamnet” won Toronto’s People’s Choice Award on Sunday, making it Zhao’s second movie to take that honor. The first, “Nomadland,” went on to win the Oscar for best picture in 2021.
Will history repeat itself? Possibly. Is it too early to make any predictions for this year’s best picture race? Absolutely! But that’s not going to stop me from rolling out the first set of Oscar power rankings, knowing full well that at least one movie not listed here — maybe a music biopic (“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”), maybe another Brazilian broadside against fascism (“The Secret Agent”), maybe another “Avatar” entry (bet against James Cameron at your peril) — might make the cut.
Let’s start counting.
10. ‘Bugonia’
Movies that Yorgos Lanthimos both directs and writes (“Kinds of Kindness,” “The Lobster,” “The Killing of the Sacred Deer”) don’t fare well at the Oscars. Movies that Lanthimos directs from a collaborator’s screenplay (“The Favourite,” “Poor Things”) have earned 21 nominations, winning five, including lead actress wins for Olivia Colman and Emma Stone. “Bugonia,” adapted by Will Tracy from the 2003 South Korean film “Save the Green Planet!,” may end up on the wrong side of that history, what with its mix of punishing violence and absurdist humor. We’ll see if voters can reward this one while recoiling.
9. ‘Jay Kelly’
Here’s a Noah Baumbach movie that seems to disappoint longtime fans of a director known for sharp, inventive indie dramedies — and delight everyone else. A movie about a famous and, frankly, selfish actor taking stock late in life feels like the kind of exercise in self-reflective narcissism that, once upon a time in Hollywood, Oscar voters adored. And with George Clooney and Adam Sandler on board as appealing leads and Billy Crudup in a lethal supporting turn, they still might. “Too soft, too stately,” a critic friend grumbled at Telluride. Perhaps it’s called maturity? However you feel, the ending will put a lump in your throat.
8. ‘Marty Supreme’
The Safdie brothers (“Uncut Gems,” “Good Time”) have gone their separate ways, Benny writing and directing “The Smashing Machine,” with Dwayne Johnson playing an MMA fighter, and Josh co-writing and directing “Marty Supreme,” which has Timothée Chalamet aiming to become a ping-pong legend. “The Smashing Machine” played to a mix reception at Venice and Toronto. “Marty Supreme,” due Christmas, feels like a lot more fun. Take the movie with Timothée.
7. ‘It Was Just an Accident’
Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or-winning thriller possesses a withering critique of the cruelty and corruption of an authoritarian regime, combined with a blistering sense of humor. Panahi (“The Circle,” “Taxi”) has been imprisoned by the Iranian government many times for criticizing the government and his courage has been celebrated for its spirit of artistic resistance. Two international movies have been nominated for best picture in each of the last three years, a clear sign of the influence of the global voters, who now comprise more than 20% of the academy’s membership. “It Was Just an Accident” should easily make it in this year.
6. ‘Wicked: For Good’
How do you feel about seeing the sequel to last year’s critically and commercially acclaimed musical juggernaut? Are you rejoicifying? Or do you find the prospect of sitting through the musical’s second act positively horrendible? I’m somewhere in the middle, mostly wondering if leads Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande have any tears left to shed after crying their way through the first movie’s press tour. (To be clear: There is nothing wrong with feeling your feelings.) The first “Wicked” movie earned 10 Oscar nominations, winning for production design and costumes. You don’t go from being that [ahem] popular to melting away into irrelevance. “Wicked” will be back. Deal with it.
5. ‘A House of Dynamite’
Kathryn Bigelow making a movie where most of the story takes place in rooms full of people talking seems like a misuse of the talents of one of our great action directors. That is, until you see “A House of Dynamite” and realize that what all these people are discussing is how to deal with a nuclear missile of unknown origin headed toward Chicago. The movie, told in three parts from different perspectives, is so thoroughly unsettling that a friend, after seeing it, told me that the only logical response is to go home and curl up in the fetal position — which he did. But the movie also possesses an urgency that simply cannot be ignored.
4. ‘Sinners’
If you saw “Sinners” in a theater — and if you didn’t, what’s wrong with you? — you know that Ryan Coogler’s exuberant horror hit is wildly entertaining, a vampire movie that concerns itself with both the sacred and profane in the Jim Crow South. It’s the one and only movie released before the fall film festival season that is undeniable.
3. ‘Sentimental Value’
Neon won best picture last year with Sean Baker’s “Anora,” and it’s not unreasonable to think it could run it back with “Sentimental Value,” Joachim Trier’s piercing drama about a family reckoning with the past and wondering if reconciliation is possible — or even desired. The three primary actors — Stellan Skarsgård, playing a legendary director angling for a comeback, and Renate Reinsve and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas as his daughters — are excellent and will be a strong presence in the acting races. And, like “Anora,” this movie ends on a perfect, transcendent note. That counts for a lot.
2. ‘Hamnet’
The talk of the Telluride Film Festival after its world premiere gutted the audience, “Hamnet” has already been dismissed by some as “trauma porn,” the sort of dumb description that makes me wonder if those uttering it know that “Hamlet” is a tragedy. Maybe these people have issues with grief. Perhaps they should seek therapy. I’m not sure if the academy is ready to hand Zhao two best picture Oscars in five years. But “Hamnet” has the the goods to go all the way.
1. ‘One Battle After Another’
It feels like I’m bestowing a curse on Paul Thomas Anderson’s unrelenting movie, putting it in the pole position this early. But something has to sit atop the list, and why not the year’s best film, a blend of electrifying action, absurdist comedy and imagery that mirrors what’s happening (and what’s always been happening) in America? It has everything — a car chase for the ages, a sweet father-daughter story, an unhinged Sean Penn supporting turn that Steven Spielberg lauded as a career-best. Penn is part of a cast that includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and newcomer Chase Infiniti, a group that could well take the Screen Actors Guild Awards’ ensemble prize. Or not. Again, it’s early. But this feels like the year Anderson finally gets his Oscar.
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