It is “only” local elections. But it is the first election in Germany since the nationwide government took office in May. The coalition includes the conservative and their Bavarian sister party the (CDU/CSU) and the center-left (SPD).
“It is effectively a litmus test for the federal government,” Oliver Lembcke, a political scientist at the Ruhr University Bochum, told DW of the vote in (NRW) on September 14.
The Social Democrats in particular face a further decline in their former heartland, while the far-right (AfD) is gaining in the polls.
The election is also meaningful because the western state is Germany’s most populous, with 18 million residents. Its economic and societal diversity also makes it a microcosm of the country. It contains large cities such as Cologne, Düsseldorf and Dortmund, plus rural areas, industry and services as well as agriculture. The structural change in the Ruhr district transitioning from coal and steel production toward the service sector, is a development reflected in many areas. In NRW, one in every four residents has an immigration background, the same as Germany overall.
A test for Chancellor Merz
The local elections are widely seen both as a test case for the federal government of Merz, who hails from NRW, but also for State Premier Hendrik Wüst and his state government.
Fifty-year-old Wüst (CDU) has been governing with the since 2022 and has been tipped as a possible successor to 69-year-old Friedrich Merz. While they have had their disagreements in the past, this week the two men are now demonstrating unity.
The election results will impact not only the two politicians and their CDU party, but also the Social Democrats and Bärbel Bas, who hails from the Ruhr Valley town of Duisburg. That region has always been considered to be the SPD’s home turf, the “heart of social democracy.”
Feeling let down by politics
On September 14, city and municipal councils, county councils, mayors and district administrators will be voted in — about 20,000 seats in total. In local government elections, individuals often play a more important role than parties: Local representatives are on the ground, dealing with grassroots issues, for example, schools, local public transport and the local economy. That is why people sometimes vote for a different party than in the federal elections, which focus on “big picture” policies.
However, it is already clear: Many people in NRW are dissatisfied with the state of their communities, especially with the infrastructure, said Oliver Lembcke: “Streets, bridges, local transport, schools — people are very quickly dissatisfied, especially if they feel those in power are not taking care of it.”
But it is not all about local problems. “We are also seeing on the campaign trail that topics which are matters for the federal government also play a part: especially immigration; being overwhelmed by immigration, the integration demands of immigration.” Fixing these problems are not necessarily the domain of local politics, but “they still matter for this election,” according to Lembcke.
Far-right AfD catching up in the West
According to the polls, the Social Democrats must expect the heaviest losses, especially in the cities of the Ruhr area, such as Gelsenkirchen or Duisburg, while the far-right AfD is likely to gain in strength there. These industrial areas were the traditional strongholds of the SPD. In the previous local elections 5 years ago, the AfD received only about 5% of the vote, in the February 2025 general election, that had gone up to 20% in some towns in the Ruhr Valley. Now, pollsters predict a strong showing, but expect results to be below the AfD’s results in eastern Germany, which are well over 30%.
Vice Chancellor of the SPD warned his fellow party members during the election campaign: “We need to address people’s concerns.” Many workers in the steel, chemical or automobile industries fear for their jobs.
Political scientist Oliver Lembcke points out that the AfD connects housing shortages, high rents or bad schools with immigration. “This connection is what the AfD thrives off; that is its winning topic. The SPD is losing here the most because it — in many ways rightly — does not see these connections so strongly and also rejects them on principle. However, they tend to gloss over the issues rather than address them.”
Despite this, Lembcke thinks that the AfD will probably not gain a mayoral position, for which the absolute majority of over 50% of the vote is required. “The other parties will unite behind the most promising candidate and thereby prevent mayoral posts from going to the AfD,” Lembcke predicts. “But in county councils and the parliaments of the municipalities, we will see growth of the AfD representation.”
Great dissatisfaction with the federal government
The mood in NRW aligns with the results of from September 3. These numbers are also unsettling for the federal governing parties in Berlin.
According to that poll, only 22% of voters are satisfied with the work of Friedrich Merz’s federal government. Perception of the AfD’s competence to solve problems has risen significantly in many different fields, including economic policy, foreign policy, and financial policy. With regard to refugee and asylum policy, for the first time, those surveyed thought the AfD was the most competent party of all.
Earlier this year, Friedrich Merz confidently announced that an economic upswing was coming and would be felt by the summer. However, the economy hasn’t come out of recession, while the number of unemployed has now risen to more than 3 million for the first time in 10 years.
Strong results for the AfD in NRW could put pressure on the governing coalition in Berlin, especially when it comes to questions of immigration, internal security and social issues. It would also confirm a political polarization in western Germany, which until now was predominantly in the eastern states, where the AfD is significantly stronger than in the west.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz seems to want to cover himself against possible bad results in NRW: “Local elections are local elections” he said during a recent visit to the state, downplaying the national significance of the vote, arguing that while they are held against a backdrop of state and national politics, the results in local elections depend on the popularity of the individual candidates on the ground.
Polls predict the CDU to emerge as the strongest local party across the state.
But if, as predicted, the SPD performs badly, this will weaken its position on the national level and impact the difficult cooperation between the CDU/CSU and SPD in Berlin at a time when both partners have agreed to pull together following their recent conflicts over social policy.
With tricky budget negotiations ahead, Oliver Lembcke argues both the center-left and the center-right should spread a much more optimistic message also in local election campaigns. The extensive, debt-financed investments the federal government has announced should be emphasized: “The money is there, and it should also arrive on site. Where are the many citizen movements saying: Great, now we will campaign on this!”
This article was originally written in German.
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