Two years ago, I walked into the Thai Parliament, ready to be chosen as the new prime minister. My party, Move Forward, had been handed a victory by millions of Thais who voted resoundingly to break the grip of a corrupt, anti-democratic political old guard.
Yet in Thai politics, nothing is ever certain.
The country’s power brokers soon conspired to block Move Forward from forming a government. Trumped-up lawsuits followed, and last year the Constitutional Court disbanded the party and barred me from politics for 10 years.
Since then, Thailand has cycled through prime ministers with dizzying speed, driven by this same game of political roulette. Last week, Parliament chose yet another — Anutin Charnvirakul — a conservative whose party only managed to place a distant third in the 2023 elections.
Democracy is under threat globally. And as Thailand shows, autocratic forces today secure their grip not only with tanks and rifle butts. Increasingly, they wield the velvet cudgel of lawfare: the undemocratic use of legal mechanisms and nominally independent bodies to dissolve parties, disqualify candidates and cripple opposition.
In Thailand, nonelected institutions remain stronger than the will of the people. This is slowly strangling my country, a U.S. treaty ally that stood as a longtime bastion of stability in an often-volatile Southeast Asia.
Since transitioning from an absolute to a constitutional monarchy in 1932, Thailand has gone through a dozen coups and nearly 20 constitutions. Each of them weakened democracy while entrenching nonelected power. The most recent coup, in 2014, imposed five years of rule by a military junta. New elections were held in 2019, but a constitution drafted in the wake of the coup has ensured the military’s continued political influence. That charter gave sweeping authority to courts and watchdog agencies whose judges and commissioners were appointed directly or indirectly by the junta.
Move Forward sought to change that. The party called for a new, more democratic Constitution, a reduction of the military’s influence in politics, more equitable wealth distribution and reform of Thailand’s royal defamation law, whose expansive provisions are increasingly used by the military-royalist elite to suppress political opposition.
Thai voters agreed, but a popular mandate is never enough in Thailand. The old guard protects its prerogatives and neutralizes threats by ensuring that every party and leader must keep one eye on the courts and spend precious energy parrying the endless petitions, lawsuits, disqualifications and dissolutions. This divides parties and politicians, making them easier to manipulate, drains governments of focus and fractures the link between leaders and the people they are supposed to serve. Energy that could go into building schools or tackling inequality is instead burned in the struggle for political survival. Prime ministers come and go, and Thailand spins its wheels.
Ordinary Thai people bear the cost of the stalled reforms, weaker institutions and diminished lives. Thailand’s economy is forecast to grow just 1.8 percent this year, among the slowest in Southeast Asia and well below historical rates. Its population is rapidly aging, amplifying strain to the economy and public sector. Our crucial tourism industry is threatened by scammers who prey on the tourists who flock to our shores, and a deepening mental health emergency has led to the highest suicide rate in the region.
Thailand’s stability and national resilience are further tested by external forces. To the west, Myanmar’s escalating conflict sends waves of refugees across the frontier, straining local communities and aid networks. To the east, Cambodia continues to rattle Thailand. The two countries exchanged deadly fire in a border dispute in late July, and Cambodia’s de facto leader, Hun Sen, helped precipitate the ouster of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of Thailand two weeks ago — triggering the latest government change — by releasing a recording of an embarrassing phone conversation between them. The junta that seized power in 2014 also tilted closer to Beijing, making Thailand increasingly reliant on Chinese trade and investment, arms, diplomatic support and overall influence. Thailand’s human rights record has drawn fire over abuses such as the deportation of Uyghur refugees to China earlier this year.
Against this backdrop, Thailand’s younger generation faces a fraught future. In 2023, more than three million new voters cast ballots. These young Thais grew up witnessing a coup, violent political protests, party dissolutions and prime ministers toppled by judicial decree. Great frustration over this democratic deficit is building up. Many marched for reform in 2020, only to meet riot shields and water cannon. As a result, nearly 2,000 people were charged with royal defamation, sedition or other crimes. Many still await trial.
This generation — denied its voice and persecuted for expressing it — still holds the power to effect change if it chooses to claim it. But frustration does not always translate into democratic mobilization. Many disenchanted Thais remain susceptible to the propaganda and lies of hyper-conservatism.
Progressive Thai politicians cannot take the youth vote for granted. But they must not lose heart. They must push against the system and fight for tangible change, a level political and economic playing field and a restoration of the country’s socioeconomic promise, or risk losing a generation to the void of disillusionment. The task will not be easy, but it is possible.
So here we stand: Another prime minister, with a minimal mandate, whose government must make good on a pledge to organize a credible snap election in four months, as well as a referendum on replacing the undemocratic Constitution. Constant pressure from the opposition and civil society will be needed to make sure these promises are met.
The question for Mr. Anutin and his new government is not only whether they can survive, but whether Thais can summon the courage to break the nation’s cycle of engineered fragility. Unless that happens, Thailand risks becoming a cautionary tale of democratic decline, condemned to spin the wheel again and again, until its people, especially its youth, decide enough is enough.
Pita Limjaroenrat led Thailand’s Move Forward Party to victory in 2023 elections but was blocked from forming a government and banned from politics for 10 years. He is currently a senior fellow at the Ash Center at Harvard University.
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