Russia sending drones over Poland marked an escalation of hostilities with Europe. But what, if anything, did Vladimir Putin hope to gain — and how will NATO respond?
The incident raises a lot of questions about Russia, Poland and NATO — everything from whether the Kremlin meant to send the drones into Poland, to whether Warsaw and the Atlantic alliance have adapted sufficiently to the realities of modern drone warfare.
1. What happened over eastern Poland?
Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Polish parliament that Polish airspace had been breached 19 times. Polish F-16 fighter jets and Dutch F-35s plus other aircraft responded and shot down at least four drones.
Fragments of drones were found across eastern Poland, with one smashing into a house. No one was injured.
Warsaw is pretty clear about who’s to blame. “There is no doubt about Russia’s aggressive intentions,” Tusk said. Warsaw invoked NATO’s Article 4 to call a meeting with its allies and discuss the situation.
“The whole machine will now chew through the assessment,” a NATO official said.
2. Could it be an accident?
Poland and other frontline NATO countries like Romania have been hit with the occasional Russian drone in the more than three years since the Kremlin launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine. But this is the first time that so many drones were spotted over an allied country — and the first time that Russian drones were shot down.
The earlier incidents could be explained away as one-offs, but that’s harder with such a large number of drones.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said: “The assessment of Polish and NATO air forces is, they did not veer off course, but were deliberately targeted.”
That view was supported by other countries.
“There is definitely no reason to suspect that this was a course correction error or anything of the sort,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
Fabian Hoffmann, a missile and nuclear strategy expert at the University of Oslo, said the incident bore all the hallmarks of deliberate action. “Looking at the flight paths, these drones followed a controlled trajectory, so it seems like Russia did it with deliberation,” he said.
But there were a few caveats.
U.K. Defence Secretary John Healey said: “There are conflicting reports, and there is no firm assessment yet about what lay behind the drone attacks, or the intent. Whatever the intent they were dangerous, whatever the intent they were reckless, and whatever the intent they breached sovereign Polish and NATO airspace.”
Zachary Kallenborn, a drone warfare researcher at King’s College London, said there seems to be some caution in the aftermath of the incident.
“Initially I’m seeing a lot of strong words but hesitation about how to respond,” he said. “Article 4 consultations give a chance to gather more info, weigh options, and decide whether and how to respond.”
3. What does the Kremlin say?
Moscow’s first response was to blame Ukraine.
Andrei Ordash, Russia’s chargé d’affaires in Warsaw, said outside the Polish foreign ministry: “We know one thing: These drones flew in from the side of Ukraine … No evidence has been provided to support the claim that these drones were of Russian origin.”
The Kremlin reacted in the early afternoon by saying … almost nothing.
“We would prefer not to comment on this in any way. It’s outside our area of competence,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, according to the TASS state news agency.
But, he added, EU leaders and NATO accuse Russia of various provocations “on a daily basis. Most often without even trying to present any arguments.”
The defense ministry finally responded, publishing an online statement saying Russia had conducted a successful large-scale drone strike on “enterprises of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex” in western Ukraine.
No targets had been “planned” on Polish territory, it added. The ministry also said that the drones which had reportedly crossed into Poland had a maximum flight range of no more than 700 kilometers, hinting that drones fired from Russia could not have reached Poland.
“Nevertheless, we’re ready to hold consultations with Poland on this matter with Poland’s Defense Ministry,” it concluded.
4. Is this part of a Russian plan?
Notwithstanding Donald Trump’s ineffectual threats against Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his failed efforts to bring a quick end to the fighting, Russia has been amping up its aggression against Ukraine in recent weeks.
It is launching ever larger strikes against Ukrainian cities. On Sunday it fired over 800 drones and missiles, one of which hit Ukraine’s main government building — something that hasn’t happened so far in the war.
Russia also struck an American factory in western Ukraine. In late August, the EU’s diplomatic mission and nearby British Council were hit in central Kyiv.
“This is a message from Moscow that they are not interested in a peace secured by a Western reassurance force, and likely not interested in peace period,” wrote Timothy Ash, an economist who covers Central Europe.
Retired General Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe, had no doubt that the drone incursion was deliberate, and said that it underlined Putin’s penchant for risk, noting that about 8,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Poland.
Hoffmann said that Moscow’s willingness to take such risks reflects both weakness and opportunism. “Russia has no respect for Europe. And the reality is that Russia is not doing particularly well, especially economically. That’s precisely why the Kremlin chooses to escalate now — they see a window of opportunity.”
5. What does it say about Poland and NATO’s air defense readiness?
Poland and its allies did see the drones (although Kremlin ally Belarus claimed some credit for notifying Warsaw of their approach) and did shoot some of them down, but this isn’t a stunning success for Poland and NATO.
“This isn’t the kind of thing that you should be using F-16s and F-35s for,” Hodges said.
After more than three years of war, it also shows that NATO hasn’t done nearly enough to prepare for the Russian attack that analysts keep warning is a real threat, wrote Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews.
“Last night’s ‘training wheel’ attack by the Russians on Poland (and that is what it was) shows how the states of the alliance have not bothered to prepare properly for not only future war —but the war that is staring them right now in the face,” he said.
Ukraine, which is used to almost daily attacks by Russia, responds more swiftly and more cheaply.
Ukraine said it had intercepted 386 out of 415 Russian drones and 27 out of 43 missiles launched overnight Tuesday.
6. How can NATO respond?
The alliance is aware that its air defenses need improving, and Wednesday’s incidents bolster that feeling.
Oana Lungescu, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank and a former NATO spokesperson, said that NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte “has said that NATO needs a five-fold increase in air and missile defense capabilities, so that’s an urgent priority. It’s also important that all NATO countries clarify their national legislation about downing aircraft entering their airspace.”
Hodges called for NATO to hold a large, multinational air defense exercise to properly coordinate air defenses across all of its frontline states. He also recommended that the rules of engagement be changed for air patrols over the Baltic and Black seas to allow NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones and missiles.
Finally, he said it makes sense for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over western Ukraine to prevent Russian drones and missiles from getting close to allied airspace. “There are no Russian planes flying over Ukraine, so this would not be an escalation,” he said.
Esther Webber, Eva Hartog, Victor Jack, Nette Nöstlinger and Chris Lunday contributed reporting.
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