Call me foolish. Call me naive. But not too long ago, I truly believed that the big categories in this year’s Emmys were going to come down to the wire. That when that final envelope was opened, we’d be on the edge of our seats… or at the very least not completely numbed to the inevitability of the winners.
It could still happen, of course. I’m ready for “The Pitt” to make me cry again should the throwback medical drama prevail for drama series.
But I’m not holding my breath. This year’s Emmys look like they’ll be continuing the trend of rewarding a handful of shows — “The Studio,” “Severance” and “Adolescence” are the big three — at the expense of everyone else. Sure, other series will pick up a trophy here and there: Jean Smart will not be denied! But by and large, if you made even a cursory effort at keeping up with TV this year, you’ll know the winners already. And one of them will be Stephen Colbert, who might have something interesting to say, given that the Emmys are airing on CBS, the network that unceremoniously canceled his show.
So there’s one reason to watch. And if you love the other heavy favorites, not to mention icons like Harrison Ford and Kathy Bates, maybe there’s more. Here are my final predictions for the 77th Primetime Emmys on Sept. 14.
Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary”“The Bear”“Hacks”“Nobody Wants This”“Only Murders in the Building”“Shrinking”“The Studio”“What We Do in the Shadows”
“Hacks” won last year, riding the sentiment that “The Bear” was most definitely not a comedy. Guess what? “Hacks” wasn’t exactly a laugh riot this season, opening the door for “The Studio,” a show that is both funny and somehow affectionate in its clear-eyed look at the compromises baked into making movies (and occasionally art) in Hollywood.
Comedy Actress
Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This”Uzo Aduba, “The Residence”Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Smart won for the first three seaons of “Hacks” and is on one of those runs like Julia Louis-Dreyfus enjoyed with “Veep.” The only thing that will stop her is the end of the show.
Comedy Actor
Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This”Seth Rogen, “The Studio”Jason Segel, “Shrinking”Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Before “The Studio” vacuumed up 23 Emmy nominations, setting a record for a first-year show, I thought Short might have a shot at winning his first acting Emmy. You know he’d deliver one of the all-time great acceptance speeches. But it’ll have to wait. The momentum is with Rogen, who played cringe comedy to perfection on “The Studio.”
Comedy Supporting Actress
Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
Is the fourth time the charm for Einbinder? I was sure she’d win last year when the third season of “Hacks” ended with her character, Ava, pulling off a delightful double-cross. But Colón-Zayas wound up with the Emmy, probably for the episode of “The Bear” that she’s nominated for this year. (“The Bear” drops its new seasons in June, so the episodes, in this case the Colón-Zayas showcase “Napkins,” are fresh in voters’ minds.) Would it be funny if she won again? For everyone but Einbinder, yes. (“Napkins” is that good.) Would it be surprising if comedy legend O’Hara takes the Emmy in a “Studio” sweep? Not at all. But Einbinder, essentially a co-lead on “Hacks,” feels like the safest choice.
Comedy Supporting Actor
Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”Michael Urie, “Shrinking”Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
There are two impulses at war here. One: Give Ford, 83, an Emmy! If not now, when? Two: Give it to Barinholtz (more deserving), just to hear him say a variation of “Thank you, Sal Saperstein” from the stage. Sentiment wins. Go with Ford.
Drama Series
“Andor”“The Diplomat”“The Last of Us”“Paradise”“The Pitt”“Severance”“Slow Horses”“The White Lotus”
Some have boiled this race down to the heart (“The Pitt”) vs. the head (“Severance”), an oversimplification which ignores how smartly “The Pitt” wove topical issues into its storylines and how the “Severance” finale emotionally floored so many of us. They’re both great shows on multiple levels. As for the winner, for me, it’s a case of numbers. “Severance” earned 27 nominations to 13 for “The Pitt.” That widespread support makes it the favorite.
Drama Actress
Kathy Bates, “Matlock”Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”Britt Lower, “Severance”Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
First Smart, then Ford, now Bates. A banner night for boomers! In Bates’ case, it’s also a victory for broadcast television and the notion that reboots don’t have to be awful.
Drama Actor
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”Adam Scott, “Severance”Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
Every member of “The Pitt” ensemble deserves a prize. And every member of “The Pitt” ensemble will receive a prize next year when the show wins the cast honor at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. In the meantime, we have Wyle, the actor who gave the show its aching heart. Many of my favorite series — “Mad Men,” “The Sopranos,” “Breaking Bad” — revolve around antiheroes. “Succession” had a family full of them. So what Wyle does on “The Pitt” is almost revolutionary, fashioning a captivating character who makes you want to do better.
Drama Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, “Severance”Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
With four “White Lotus” nominees, it’s possible that they split the vote, allowing LaNasa to win for another aspirational character on “The Pitt,” the resilient charge nurse who keeps the ER functioning. That would not be unwelcome. But when multiple actors from a show (or movie) are nominated, voters tend to coalesce behind one nominee, and in this case it would be Coon, who has the big, real-talk speech about friendship in the “White Lotus” finale. That monologue, which put a bow on a frustrating season, probably earns Coon the Emmy.
Drama Supporting Actor
Zach Cherry, “Severance”Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”James Marsden, “Paradise”Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”John Turturro, “Severance”Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
Goggins could well win. Look at all those “White Lotus” acting nominations. Someone liked the show — or at least watched it, mostly so they could complain about its pacing. But support for Tillman and the way he showed the vulnerabilities of Mr. Milchick, Lumon’s most loyal foot soldier, has built steadily throughout the season. “What does it mean to be in a world that you are not represented in?” Tillman mused of his role. “And how does Milchick buy into that?” The same could be said of Tillman’s place in this year’s Emmys. If he wins, he will likely be the only person of color collecting a trophy at the ceremony.
Limited Series
“Adolescence”“Black Mirror”“Dying for Sex”“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” “The Penguin”
Last year it was “Baby Reindeer.” This year, “Adolescence.” Does Netflix have a line on the next hit U.K. limited series for 2026?
Limited Series / TV Movie Actress
Cate Blanchett, “Disclaimer”Meghann Fahy, “Sirens”Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin”Rashida Jones, “Black Mirror”Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex”
If it feels like we’ve been talking about “The Penguin” forever, it’s because we have. The show premiered nearly a year ago. Milioti had the misfortune of competing against Jessica Gunning’s undeniable performance on “Baby Reindeer,” losing to her earlier this year at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. Now that she’s free and clear, it’s Milioti’s time to shine.
Limited Series / TV Movie Actor
Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent”Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
Farrell, meanwhile, did win at the Globes and SAGs. The Emmy completes the trifecta.
Limited Series / TV Movie Supporting Actress
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence”Ruth Negga, “Presumed Innocent”Deirdre O’Connell, “The Penguin”Chloë Sevigny, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”Jenny Slate, “Dying for Sex”Christine Tremarco, “Adolescence”
Doherty will likely win for the series’ third episode, a taut two-hander with Owen Cooper. But the fourth episode is just as good — maybe even better — featuring a heart-rending turn from Tremarco as the mom trying to hold it together. Both women are worthy, but Doherty has the edge with her showcase hour.
Limited Series / TV Movie Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”Bill Camp, “Presumed Innocent”Owen Cooper, “Adolescence”Rob Delaney, “Dying for Sex”Peter Sarsgaard, “Presumed Innocent”Ashley Walters, “Adolescence”
“Adolescence” co-creator Graham called Cooper the “next Robert De Niro” on Graham Norton’s BBC talk show and, shortly afterward, told me the last time he’d seen a young actor so talented was when he watched Leonardo DiCaprio in “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape.” Who knows what career he’ll go on to have? But apart from Wyle’s heroic, beleaguered doctor in “The Pitt,” you could make the case that Cooper’s turn as Jamie, a 13-year-old accused of murdering a classmate, is the year’s best nominated work.
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