On Sunday, Russia attacked Ukraine with its largest missile and drone barrage of the war. Then, on Wednesday, tensions shot up with the West, as numerous Russian drones flew over Poland in a striking aerial incursion into a NATO country.
The assaults suggested a new level of aggression by Russia, more than three years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But to anyone who was listening to President Vladimir V. Putin last week, they also fit into a broader messaging campaign.
After staying largely silent on Ukraine in the weeks after his Aug. 15 summit with President Trump, the Russian leader returned to the subject as he spent hours before the cameras during his trip this month to China and Russia’s Far East. His comments there, taken together with escalating Russia’s airstrikes, looked like a fresh attempt to demonstrate that Russia is determined to dictate the terms for any end to the war.
To Ukraine, Mr. Putin’s message is that he is convinced that he has the upper hand militarily. To Kyiv’s allies in Europe, Mr. Putin’s warning is that they face danger if they follow through on their plans to eventually deploy troops to Ukraine. To Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin is signaling that he will not compromise on his core demands even as he claims that Russia is still ready to make a deal.
“I think there’s a certain light at the end of the tunnel,” Mr. Putin said last week in a nearly hourlong news conference in Beijing. “If not, then we’ll have to solve all the tasks before us by military means.”
Here’s a breakdown of Mr. Putin’s recent comments and how to read them in light of his escalation against Ukraine and his threatening actions toward the West.
Ukraine: It Will Get Worse
Both in public and in private, Mr. Putin is telegraphing confidence that Russia’s battlefield advantage against Ukraine is only increasing. His aim, according to analysts and to people close to the Kremlin, is to convince Ukraine that resistance against Russia’s war machine is futile.
Asked about the state of the war in Beijing, Mr. Putin said that Ukraine’s reserves of soldiers were dwindling, and he claimed that Ukraine’s combat-ready units “are currently staffed at no more than 47-48 percent.”
“This means the situation is now at its most critical point,” Mr. Putin said.
The comments echoed Mr. Putin’s private view that the Ukrainian military is running so short in personnel that the country’s defenses may collapse. That perspective was described this summer by two people close to the Kremlin who insisted on anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive diplomacy.
Mr. Putin’s bottom line for Ukraine, according to those people, is that Kyiv should take whatever peace terms are being offered now because any future deal will be worse. Ukraine’s supporters counter that Mr. Putin is trying to bully Kyiv into capitulating while ignoring his military’s enormous losses and limited recent battlefield gains, as well as Russia’s economic headwinds.
Europe: Playing With Fire
Mr. Putin is displaying growing frustration with European countries that are trying to form a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine from a future Russian attack after the current invasion ends.
At his freewheeling news conference in Beijing last Wednesday, Mr. Putin referred to Ukraine’s supporters in Europe as a “party of war” that wants to fight Russia “to the last Ukrainian.”
At a three-hour appearance in the Russian Pacific port city of Vladivostok two days later, Mr. Putin said that if any Western troops appeared in Ukraine “especially now, during the fighting, we assume that these will be legitimate targets for destruction.”
He added that the possibility of stationing NATO troops in Ukraine was a “root cause” of the chain of events that, in Mr. Putin’s narrative, precipitated Russia’s invasion. In the event of a peace deal, he said, their presence in Ukraine “wouldn’t make any sense.”
In that context, the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace early Wednesday looks like a possible reminder by the Kremlin that it is prepared to escalate in a confrontation with NATO.
Trump: Still Ready to Deal
Mr. Putin hasn’t stopped lavishing praise on Mr. Trump, whom he sees as key to achieving a peace deal on Russia’s terms. But his military actions are testing Mr. Trump’s patience, seemingly daring him to carry through on his threats to get tougher on Russia..
Mr. Putin said in Beijing that the Trump administration was “trying to find a solution” to the war “by peaceful means,” and that world leaders gathered for a Chinese military parade voiced hope that Mr. Trump would help end the war.
In Vladivostok, Mr. Putin suggested that Russia was now waiting for the United States and Ukraine to make the next move. He reiterated that Russia wanted “security guarantees” of its own, a demand that would be likely to entail drastic limitations on Ukraine’s sovereignty.
“We will respect those security guarantees that, of course, must be developed for both Russia and Ukraine,” Mr. Putin said. “No one has discussed this with us at a serious level yet, that’s all.”
Anton Troianovski is the Moscow bureau chief for The Times. He writes about Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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