Every week this season, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett will offer his early ATS picks for the top college football games of the week.
After a Week 2 slate that overdelivered despite featuring just one ranked-vs.ranked matchup (Michigan vs. Oklahoma), Week 3 offers something for everyone, especially in the SEC and ACC.
In addition to the headliner in Knoxville between No. 6 Georgia and No. 15 Tennessee, No. 16 Texas A&M’s trip to No. 8 Notre Dame is a massive game for both programs.
No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami is also huge for not only the Canes, who are currently shorter than even-money to make the College Football Playoff, but also Byrum Brown and the Bulls — more on the implications of this game for USF below!
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT
No. 12 Clemson (-3.5) at Georgia Tech — Sat., 12 p.m. (ESPN)
Pick: Georgia Tech +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
Warning: lengthy “first look” ahead …
If you’re a Clemson fan — or you’re among the many who bet on Cade Klubnik to win the Heisman Trophy and/or the Tigers to win the ACC — this team’s 1-1 start has raised a number of red flags. Let’s run through a few below:
- the running game, which picked up 31 yards on 20 carries vs. LSU and 120 yards on 31 carries vs. Troy
- the horrific start vs. Troy as 29.5-point favorites at home last Saturday (Troy was up 16-3 at the break)
And we haven’t even gotten to Klubnik’s struggles. Through two games, he’s completed just under 60 percent of his passes. A year after averaging a healthy 7.5 yards per attempt, that number is down to 6.9 YPA. Klubnik has thrown for just two touchdowns, and he’s been intercepted twice. He’s also been sacked three times (3) while rushing for a total of negative-three yards on 13 carries (including sacks).
With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see the Tigers, who opened as 6.5-point favorites, now listed at just -3.5 across the board.
There are a couple of reasons to believe Georgia Tech could pull the upset, starting with the Jackets’ penchant for playing up to their competition the last few seasons. This team has four wins over then-top-20 teams in the last two years, including two over opponents that were in the top-10 when those games took place (Florida State in Week 1 of 2024, and Miami later last fall).
These teams did not meet in 2024. The Tigers won the last GT-Clemson meeting — back in 2023 — 42-21.
Betting on Clemson requires overlooking not only the previously mentioned flaws that have been on display for the preseason ACC favorites, but how well GT has played against the best teams on its schedule under Key.
Georgia Tech is dealing with an injury that sidelined QB Haynes King last Saturday, but he is expected to be back under center this weekend.
King and Co. could have a tough time on running on a Clemson D-line featuring multiple future first-round draft picks, especially if King is hobbled. Right now, though, as long as they can avoid turnovers, I still like the Jackets — who outgained Colorado 463-305 and overcame three turnovers and eight penalties in a 27-20 road win in Week 1 — at +3.5.
No. 6 Georgia (-3.5) at No. 15 Tennessee — Sat., 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Pick: Georgia -3.5 (-110 at DK, bet365)
On the surface, the talent disparity on these rosters — or lack thereof — is narrow enough to justify a play on Tennessee to at least cover as 3.5-point home ‘dogs.
FWIW, ESPN’s SP+ currently ranks Georgia No. 4 (No. 11 on offense, No. 6 on defense) and Tennessee No. 6 (No. 18 on offense, No. 3 defense).
But it’s hard to go with the Vols given the recent history between these programs. Georgia has won all four head-to-head matchups since Josh Heupel took over as head coach of the Vols in 2021, with each of those victories coming by at least 14 points.
I expect Saturday’s matchup to be much closer than that, but I still lean toward Georgia. Expect a physical, low-scoring clash between two veteran quarterbacks with limited experience in games of this magnitude. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton faced both Texas and Notre Dame last year, but has thrown just 141 career passes. Tennesee’s Joey Aguilar, on the other hand, is not short on experience, but is yet to face a defense like the Dawgs’.
No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami (-17.5) — Sat., 4:30 p.m. (The CW)
Pick: 1Q Spread — USF +6.5 (-108 at DK)*
Is this the week dynamic USF QB Byrum Brown runs into a defense he can’t beat with either his arm or his legs? It would be an understatement to say that Brown — who ran for 800-plus yards in 2023, then missed most of 2024 with an injury — has looked healthy so far this season.
After blowing out reigning Mountain West champ Boise State in Week 1, Brown and the Bulls are coming off a gutsy 18-16 road win over Florida last Saturday.
Miami looked phenomenal vs. Notre Dame in Week 1, but there was little to glean from last week’s 45-3 rout of Bethune-Cookman.
A relatively comfortable win by the Canes wouldn’t shock me. After USF’s wins over Boise State (34-7) as a 5.5-point home underdog and Florida (18-16) as an 18.5-point road ‘dog, I have a hard time trusting Miami — or anyone — to blow out USF.
On the other hand, when a spread is far from where the on-field performance tells us it should be, there’s typically a good reason for that. Staying away from puzzling lines like this is typically the best move.
Before we move on from this one, it’s worth noting that the early-sesaon wins over Boise State and Florida have moved USF into the mix for the Group of Five spot in the CFP. In fact, USF has by far the shortest odds to make the CFP of any G5 team. As of September 10, USF is listed at shorter than +300 at DraftKings (+270), FanDuel (+210) and bet365 (+250).
*For now, we’re staying away from the spread in this matchup.
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame (-7) — Sat., 7:30 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Pick: Notre Dame -6.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Aggies have taken care of business to start Year 2 under Mike Elko. How much do we really know about A&M based on season-opening wins over UTSA and Utah State, though?
Texas A&M has a couple of dangerous weapons in the backfield in dual-threat QB Marcel Reed and preseason All-SEC first-team RB Le’Veon Moss. On Saturday in South Bend, the question for the Aggies is whether Reed will be able to beat Notre Dame through the air.
Through his young career to date, the Aggies have not had much success against teams that were able to force Reed to beat them as a passer. Last year, in eight starts, plus an outstanding second-half appearance against LSU, Reed averaged 6.4 yards per carry or better against Florida, Bowling Green, LSU and New Mexico State. A&M was 4-0 in those contests.
In five games when Reed was bottled up as a runner (5.1 ypc or fewer) — against Arkansas, South Carolina, Auburn, Texas and USC — the Aggies went just 1-4.
I don’t see Texas A&M topping Notre Dame on the road without a big night running the football by Reed, and I expect the stout Irish D to force him to beat them from the pocket.
With that in mind, I’ll take ND — which beat Texas A&M 23-13 in College Station in Week 1 last fall — to win by a touchdown at home in a game it desperately needs following its season-opening loss at Miami.
Florida at No. 3 LSU (-7.5) — Sat., 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Pick: LSU -7.5
Last week’s home loss to USF was ugly, but Florida shouldn’t be written off just yet — especially considering how beatable LSU looked vs. Lousiana Tech at home in Week 2.
The Tigers led that contest just 10-0 at halftime, and they averaged just under 5 yards per play in their 23-7 win over the Bulldogs.
But while the offense sputtered in Week 2 after an impressive showing at Clemson in the opener, LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s much-improved, transfer-laden unit has now allowed a grand total of 17 points in two weeks.
Points will not be easy to come by vs. Florida, but at home in primetime, I expect Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU offense to score enough to not only avenge last year’s 27-16 loss in The Swamp, but cover.
One key to this game will be how quickly Nussmeier, who has only been sacked more than two times in a game twice in his entire career (last week vs. La Tech, he went down three times, and in last year’s meeting vs. the Gators, Florida dropped him seven times) gets rid of the football.
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