The U.S. economy probably added close to a million fewer jobs in 2024 and early 2025 than previously reported, the latest sign that the labor market, until recently a bright spot in the economy, may be weaker than it initially appeared.
The revised data was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of a longstanding annual process known as benchmarking. But the big downward adjustment comes at an awkward moment for the agency, just weeks after President Trump fired its top official following a separate set of negative revisions last month.
The data released on Tuesday showed that employers added 911, 000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than had been indicated in the monthly payroll figures. That implies the economy added only about 850,000 jobs during that time — half as many as previously reported.
The report doesn’t directly affect the period since March. But the scale of the overestimate has led many economists to conclude that more recent job gains have probably also been overstated. That could concern policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who have been watching closely for signs that the labor market is losing momentum.
In a speech in Miami last month, Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor, cited the forthcoming benchmark revision as one reason that he supported cutting interest rates at the central bank’s meeting next week. The case has only grown stronger since then: On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added just 22,000 jobs in August, and that the unemployment rate had edged up to 4.3 percent, its highest level in nearly four years.
The revision announced on Tuesday is preliminary and won’t be incorporated into the government’s official jobs figures until complete data is available early next year.
The annual benchmarking process is necessary because the monthly jobs figures are estimates, based on a survey of more than 100,000 employers. Once a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reconciles those estimates with less timely but more authoritative records from state unemployment offices.
In most years, the revisions are small and attract relatively little attention. But if the final update looks similar to the preliminary numbers released on Tuesday, it will be the second unusually large annual revision in a row. The 2024 benchmarking process lowered the estimate of job growth by nearly 600,000. (The preliminary estimate released last August, was even larger.)
The White House has pointed to the big revisions as evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been struggling to measure the economy accurately, and that Mr. Trump was right to fire Erika McEntarfer, its Senate-confirmed leader. The president has nominated E.J. Antoni, a longtime critic of the agency, to replace her.
“This is why we need new and better data,” Kevin Hassett, one of Mr. Trump’s top economic advisers, said in an interview on CBS News on Sunday.
The White House is preparing a report detailing issues at the agency, including declining response rates to its surveys and large recent revisions, as part of its effort to win Senate confirmation for Mr. Antoni, according to people familiar with the matter. Administration officials have argued that new leadership is required to push the agency to modernize its approach to data collection, including by relying less on surveys.
Experts on the statistical system say the agency has been trying to make those changes but has been stymied by budgets that have declined under both Republican and Democratic administrations. Mr. Trump’s proposed budget would make further cuts to the agency’s budget and staff.
In a statement on Monday, the National Association of Business Economists argued that increased funding could help reduce the size of future revisions.
“With sufficient funding, agencies can modernize data collection and improve the accuracy of first estimates — outcomes that benefit businesses, investors, policymakers and households alike,” the statement said.
Ben Casselman is the chief economics correspondent for The Times. He has reported on the economy for nearly 20 years.
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